296 Values and Used Market

Harry is my favorite reviewer and I appreciated that he said at the beginning that value is still important to him.

 

his point on the software programming costs flying up as a result of features to satisfy regulators, not customers, was very interesting. As a reason why Euro cars are riding in cost like mad but American and Japanese cars aren’t. EU killing the automobile.

 

I lost more money on one V12 Vantage roadster Aston Martin than I have on the 296, 296 spider, two SF90, SF90 spider and the Roma and Roma spider Combined.

The 812 Comp A made me net positive combining all nine cars. A lot.

 

And Roma spider. Assumed current market value losses.

I sold two SF90 coupes and one spider. Still have one spider. Have both 296s.

 

Maybe in your geo it works but in mine with taxes of 50%+ the maths doesn't work. And you still need to be "anointed" with a special car

 

It's difficult to say where the bottom on these new Ferrari hybrids is. Current secondary market performance on these new Ferrari hybrids is worrying. Many like to say who cares about depreciation, yolo etc, but I wonder how many will change their tune once these levels of losses being seen are realised in their own camps?

Sounds great on the surface but then you will have to sell the 812C to pick up the losses and who would really want to do that?
So the losses on all those cars are then carried at market rates up until such time the comp is sold - opportunity cost becomes greater again as time moves forward.

 

Warren Buffet calls his plane the Indefensible.

I can only use my example of buying over fifty Ferraris over the last decade and being net positive. Millions of dollars.

 

Last three months I took delivery of the 812 Comp A and P3 Daytona.

 

There aren't many Ferrari buyers who can claim your success.

Most of us simple folk have to live with the reality that what we buy today may be our undoing at one point as we don't qualify for halo cars.

 

Don't know if you saw in the other 296 thread about problems, but I decided a couple of years ago to play The Game for specials with a goal of getting a 'big car' someday. That's why I was asking you when we met about the Unica and how that played out. Ordered GTB, specified an Atelier 296 GTS in NYC, 12C Spider deposit on reveal day, etc. Well after 32 months I got car #5 and my first new order - the 296GTB - and it arrived a lemon with a bad V6 block. Engine failure warnings on Day 2 with it, and we kept clearing codes and swapping sensors for a month trying to get it to work. Eventually caught FNA kind of bull****ting me about the production delay and extra mileage (arrived with around 130 miles, 3 months late to ship after it was done in MODIS). They said it was because it needed an extra alignment.

Ultimately it was 85 days in service for the engine. I was willing to bear some and even most of the losses of a new car needing an engine with dismal re-sale values if they met me partway. I thought with multiple cars currently and over $1.1m in future spend in the two upcoming orders - with an explicit goal of doing events and moving up status - that they would be considerate.

Long story short, FNA left me to hang with $$$$ losses and ultimately only offered to cover part of the 3 months' expense while it was down for a full engine replacement. They were not willing to even engage in negotiations until after I was broken about it mentally after more than two months of lost sleep, and told their corporate lawyers multiple times no I'm done begging for someone with decision making authority to talk to me, take the car then and give me my money back under lemon law. Some collector friends and VIP level members here said just eat it if I wanted a special someday, but I was just so humiliated and dejected that I decided that I need to find new aspirations in life.

The crazy part is that I was not as mad about the car at first, sure it was disappointing, but I started off for months willing to forgive if we could spread the burdens. But once it passed 30 days in service [then being a buyback at my will], and still needing months more because of the engine, the dealer and FNA became surprisingly adversarial about trying to work with me, each playing CYA and basically leaving it to the other to talk to me.

 

Harry is just about the best honest and passionate car vlogger out there, wealthy enough and even he considers resale and loss. There are some special peeps in the F80 forum and SF90 that think considering price/loss makes you a non car lover. Child Please.

 

Clearly you are a "big dog" in Ferrari land and I am sure these "toys" are exactly that for you - congrats - super cool!!. I personally cant afford or want to play this game, hence why I buy what I like from the manufacture's whose products I like.

 

I was also unaware that the prevalence of the electric steering was to meet object collision avoidance mandates in certain places... But I'm suspicious that drives much of the cost of an exotic car up, proportionally. If they can jam all of that tech into a $24-28k Mazda 3 then it can't add more than $3-4k total to the base cost of a $340k car - my son's 2020 Mazda 3 had adaptive cruise control, blind spot monitoring, lane departure controls, eco mode/start stop, *and* Bose surround sound, brand new for under $23k!

But again, it was reassuring to hear Harry talk about the exact same pricing conversation that we're having here: how from 360 to 296, and Murcielago to Revuelto, prices have more than tripled. Was 10x from F50 to F80!?

 

Isn’t CarPlay $300 in a Mazda but $7k in a sf90?

 

On a happier note, how is your 296 so far?

Comparison to the 765LT?

 

Well, these profits aren't just going to margin themselves, are they!?

I don't even remember an option charge for CarPlay, IIRC for Mazda it came included with the higher two [of three] trim levels.

 

I'm not confident there will be a huge amount of special edition cars left ferrari will build that will trade for a big premium outside of Icona/comissioned cars

a couple of people I know feel the same and have already started downsizing their collection and getting out of the game

 

3500 Pistas. Assume there were at least 3500 made. 3500 isn't rare in the world of 'rare' cars. Less than 1000 is rare, ideally less than 700.

 

Considerations:

1) Will Ferrari make too many 296VS's. Most certainly. Its entirely likely that most everyone who bought a 296 new and kept it will be offered a VS. If you are in a very competitive market your buy in might include a Roma etc.
2) The 296VS will be fully priced. Why would the average 296VS be any less than $600k given that Pistas are in the mid $500s?
3) There could be depreciation given the price and number they will build...how will the market react then? The 'deal' was that you lose a few times and then win. What if now, its just losing?
4) 296GTB resale isn't wonderful. So far, GTS's are holding and still selling for over. What will the price difference be in 2026 when the VS hits ground from a (slightly used 296GTB) vs a 296VS? $300k or more? If the VS is over produced with little chance of not losing money on the VS, ..who will upgrade?

Not me. No way. Hard pass.

WAY too many other options that are truly price stable and/ or increasing in value. I will just keep our GTS.

 

While I like Harry, he's wrong on so many accounts on that video.

The new hypercars, the W1 or F80, are no different than the Holy Trinity that preceded them (918, LaF and P1) from an engineering standpoint. Those cars nearly doubled in price in the following 2-3 years, and have held steady since then.

I am willing to bet that the W1 or F80 will not double in MSRP in the next 2-3 years.

Why?

The difference isn't in any qualitative aspects of the car -- i.e., tech infused, hybrid, cutting edge aero cars -- but in the market itself.

People have become desensitized to uber horsepower numbers and amazing 0-60 or lap times. The juice isn't worth the squeeze anymore. We've tasted that juice.

If the 918 was introduced today, it would also tank in a year.

People are looking for something new.

And what's "new" today is a romanticized notion of analog, mechanical driving experience (see GMA T50).

In other words, what's old is new. And what's new is old