296 Values and Used Market

Awesome post. Thank you. I agree with everything you said about older cars. I would add a different take.
I always loved the original mp4-12c. I finally bought one 2 years ago for $115k knowing fully that a car like that needs a good amount of tlc. Original sticker was about 330k. Took a good chunk of money for me to bring everything up to speed and then give it a tune. I think older cars can make some sense if you can buy it very low. It drives amazing now and incredible value for what you get, but I know I will be toast if I ever try to sell this car. So unless it gives me major headache down the road, I'm pretty much married to this car and plan to drive it to the ground hopefully to 50-100k miles someday. That's OK with me, but if I had to do it all over again, I can see myself spend some more and get a relatively new 720s instead.

 

the reality is it's really easy to make a car more 'raw' which journalists always love, removal of sound deadening, thinner window glass, louder exhaust, racier seats and tighter suspension

 

True - but it's a very difficult balancing act. For example, the 718 GT4 RS is very, very raw. But then there's 718 GT4 RS customers complaining about it being too raw, to the point where they find it unpleasant.

 

I agree, that is a good analysis. We could stop there, but I have some “yes, but”s

Yes but #1, the costs on the car are a bit high. But let’s leave them as that keeps it conservative.

Yes but #2, if we’re going to go on the high side for carry costs on the car, you should do the same for the investment. The analysis above doesnt take into account the fact that most people wouldnt hold the fund all that time, they’d probably sell out once they achieved some gain, thus, you are not properly accounting for transaction and tax costs. Over a decade Id imagine those funds get cycled at least 2x, maybe 3x. {imagine what most people would have done when Covid began, freak out is the answer. How would that account have faired if they sold out on the worst day of the market drop and bought back in once it recovered at a high… just as an example}

Yes but #3 , compare that to a time when the markets are in a prolonged funk. No one remembers that this can happen, and probably will happen again. The largest generation ever is now really truly retiring and their investing will be different, and we are in a period of higher costs and some swings could be wild. Remember what they say about past performance.

Yes but #4, the most important one, it’s great to consider opportunity cost vs an investment, but let’s face it, cars aren’t investments. How would speciale do against other cars? I bet they would be wildly negative.

Yes but #5, my point, I bet if you run the analysis foe each year of the Speciale youd see it has considerably different returns, and I think you will see the same for the new Speciale. My point is the game may have changed where the big move doesnt happen in the first few years, now you might have to hold it for longer.

 

Yes but, lol, these are true outliers and not really appropriate for someone deciding if they want to buy a 296 Speciale. With any car, buy what you love and can afford.

Run the analysis as car vs car and if the car you love can hold up better against its alternative, then thats a win.

It could be a lot worse, you could have a hobby where the money entirely evaporates.

 

This is what the company thinks it can get away with and likely some relation to how the market will value the VS. It might be hard for us to understand, but thats what they are communicating.

 

This is what the company thinks it can get away with and likely some relation to how the market will value the VS. It might be hard for us to understand, but thats what they are communicating.

 

All these calculations.....
Just enjoy the cars and your time on Earth. All these calculations, planning out the window if you are not even alive

 

What a great post. Most of us buy Ferraris for enjoyment and for driving. The 296 offers a great opportunity for those of us who drive our cars. They have depreciated to a very reasonable level, and you can find many with low miles. I am absolutely loving mine, and even if it drops in value, I'm going to enjoy the hell out of this car. It will all be worth it.

 

Does anyone have exact numbers for the extended warranties on the 296...full warranty that would include the year-8 battery replacement (and numbers if multi-year packages are purchased upfront)?

 

After 364 pages we could wrap this up by concluding :

1. Like most cars , including Ferrari’s , the 296 depreciates.

2. This is acceptable to some and not to others.

3. Analysis paralysis is enjoyed by some and boring for others as everyone should is different.

 

I think this sets the bar…2024, new, asking $111,000 off sticker (26%). I fall into the analysis camp, as I’m considering a Ferrari for the first time after being put off years ago by my local dealer who said I had to buy two used cars to be “considered” for an allocation one day in the future (for a base model allocation at the time, not a VIP model).

https://www.youngmotorcars.com/inventory/p/2024-ferrari-296-gtb-p289

 

I think there’s another $25k of meat on the bone by year end…the number of cars at 6 to 12 months for sale continues to climb. It’s perplexing to me, but maybe the battery fear, no V8, and haptic inside is really hurting the model.

 

wow great deal! How do you figure out the msrp btw?

 

I did a bunch of research to make sure I understood the different warranties. Here is what comes for the car in the U.S.

- 3 years full car warranty including Hybrid system
- 7 years maintenance based on Ferrari's analytics
- 5 years Hybrid system warranty (could be 7 years, but have seen conflicting info)

You would have to purchase the annual extension of full car warranty, which costs ~$6k per year. Current pricing so can increase. You can buy 2 years worth of extended coverage now taking your full car warranty to 5 years. After that you would have to purchase that warranty for 3 more years and you would get a new battery in Year 8.

I think this is correct, but you need a pHd to understand all this BS.
Chet

 

probably won’t be recouping the carbon fiber vehicle key

 

I take a pic of the build specification plaque (it's usually in most listings as an image), then I upload it to Perplexity Pro (an AI system that's readily available...I think I pay something like $20/month, but it's invaluable for almost everything). I then tell Perplexity: "Give me the MSRP for a 2024 Ferrari 296 with the options in the picture I'm attaching." In about 15 seconds, it prices all the options, gives me a table with prices, and a total. Total time is maybe one minute, versus contacting the dealer, having them ask for all your personal information so they can put you in their database, then waiting another day or more for them to tell you what they should have simply provided upfront (a pic of the sticker). If you want the actual sticker, you can pay to get the Monroney for around $10/sticker (you just need the VIN, but it takes a longer, and if you're looking at 50 cars, it will cost a few bottles of good red wine

 

Thanks Chet. Appreciate the info. I've started to actively look for a 296...the price, the lines, the performance...it's too tempting, and I think prices continue to fall another 10% this year. I've avoided the brand for a couple decades due to being put off by my local dealer as they said I had to buy a couple used F's in the showroom, then wait a couple years to be considered for an entry-level Ferrari...I took my business where I was appreciated from the get-go. This would be the first car in 50 that I buy used (80% were ordered and spec'd by me), but based on my post above, I'm not sure I will have to buy used.

 

Every dealer can price their plans differently. Straight up warranty extension I was quoted $6800 for two years ($3,400 per yr) when purchasing a car from them. This is better than the old warranties because they were not as good as the original warranty. This plan did not include an automatic battery replacement but the battery is covered if it goes bad.

 

That’s a really good deal if you can live without the race seats. It’s a steal.

 

I paid $6800 for a two year full warranty extension. I was quoted that from two different dealers.

 

Hybrid warranty from the service book:

7 years/ 70,000 miles


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So it seems a full warranty With battery replacement at year 8 is $6,000/year. My understanding is that you can get this warranty any time Before the end of the 3-year factory warranty expires, But if you don’t sign up then, it’s questionable. My understanding is also that you have to keep the extended warranty (with battery replacement) for all five years post factory warranty. Otherwise, if you just have an extended warranty, or you don’t buy and keep everything for the five years = no battery replacement. Five year cost of extended @$6/yr = $30,000. Seems like a no-brainer to me.

The reason I’m fixated on this, is two-fold. First, no one seems to know what the cost replacement is (I’ve read the comments about the La Ferrari being >$200k; it obviously won’t be that, but a Tesla Model S costs ~ $20k to replace), and I do think it will be a major resale consideration down the road. If Tesla is $20k, a 296 has to be at least double that (on a good day).

Secondly, degradation happens. My wife’s vehicle (electric) has lost 4% of range in the first six months…threshold for replacement is a loss of 20%. It’s leased, so I don’t care, other than if the loss of range continues, it can be an occasional hindrance.

 

Thanks for posting that. My quick read is that covers component failure. Meaning it does not cover battery degradation. So the battery may still function, but at year five or six or seven it may only have 30 or 40% of its range, in which case, unless there’s more fine print, Ferrari won’t replace the batteries—this is why they have come up with the “keep an extended warranty with battery replacement, and we will replace your battery in year 8 and 16” Plan. I believe that becomes a large consideration for the next buyer (a degrading battery without a replacement plan).

 

A hybrid battery is much smaller than a fully electric car’s battery. They are not equivalent. Very few Tesla’s require battery replacement after serious mileage- an amount that almost never occurs on new Ferraris. Battery cells can be replaced, instead of entire batteries- it’s not all or nothing. The La Ferrari is a hyper car made in limited numbers with technology that is 10 years old. To recoup costs on parts on a limited production vehicle requires a different pricing structure to amortize the cost. Going forward the prices will decline further and the performance will improve. Ferrari would destroy their hybrid business if they clobbered their customers on this. They are too smart to destroy a business line that they only recently started.