Ferrari depreciation?

I'm just curious what's your current guess on the depreciation of for example the F355 in let's say only 3 to 4 years... And what's your opinion on other models price levels in the near future? In other words, wich Ferrari's will hold their value better than the others? And wich could become more expensive maybe?

How much do you think will perfect 308's, 328's;, 348's, 355's, 360's, 430's, TR's, 512TR's 550's, various Mondial's, 456's,... and others be worth in 2009-2010...?

 

If this thread is not hijacked it could be a very interesting thread!
This question is aLways on my mind.
The biggest depreciation will of course be with the newest cars like the F430, 360M, 550M and 575M. I expect that the 355 will also lose some money in the coming years. They will probably end somewhere between 45.000 and 50.000 euro.
The best buy at this moment is the Testarossa, the 3x8 series and the Mondial. Especially the 328 and the Testarossa are great cars for great money. They will not depreciate much more.
The 512BB is slowly going back up again (as is the 365 GT4 BB).
The 348 is slowly going under the 328 prices.

I am not sure what will happen to the 456 GT and the 512 TR. The first one is a very nice comfortable GT that has already lost a huge amount in depreciation and is now more or less stable in price. The second one will always be the "better" Testarossa and for that reason stay a bit more expensive than the Testarossa.
just my opinion.

 

watching the market, looking here & there, listen to some friends, dealers....thats MY personal feeling thoughts:
+ = pricing going up
- = prices are dropping down
+/- = balanced

308 +
328 +/-
348 -
355 -
360 -
360 CS +/-
430 +/-
TR +/-
512TR +/-
550 -
456 -
Mondial -

 

Mondial is +/- now.

People always think they are very cheap because there are some "very bad"examples for sale for less then 20.000.
Good Mondials you won't get for less.
It is even getting more difficult to get one.
So I think they are at least stable now, and will increase a little in the comming years. Ofcourse they never will be "high end" sellers.


and always will get lot of points in the "price versus fun" polls.

 

My guess would be that the 308, 328, Testarossa and Mondial would continue to keep their value while 512TR, F512M and 456gt might lose just a little but certainly not that much.

The V8's of the '90's will lose the most. I think 355's may come down to about 75% of what they are worth now, while 348's will go slightly under the 328 prices, exept the 348 Spider wich will keep it's value better and depreciate noticably slower.

I see a drop in prices of the 360 to where the 355 is now. Challenge Stradale will probably hold it's value way better. Used 430's will also lose a bit but since the model will still be produced in a few years and people will still be in line to get one, I guess the big depreciation will not have started yet.

550's and 575's will most likely drop more, when the new V12 comes out soon.

The 612 Scaglietti will hardly lose value within the next years.

I don't believe any of these Ferrari's made after 1980 will increase in value just yet but if they start doing so ... I guess the F512M and 456gt would be the first... in about 10 years...
The F512M because it's the rarest and the most modern of the Testarossa kind, the 456gt because it's a born classic.

Time will tell

 

I don't think that the 456 GT will go up. In a few years time the model will be as classic as the 412. They will probably end somewhere in the same range as this car.
Although the 512M is the ugliest Testarossa it is indeed the rarest. For that reason only it will probably keep it's value.
Another problem with the modern Ferrari's is that they are produced in large numbers. This makes the car less special. You will probably still see a lot of 360's in 15 years. And they will be at the low end of the market. Also the 355 will be in the low end. Mainly because maintenance on this car is very expensive (engine out).

 

Is maintenance on a 360 the same as on a 355?

 

I suppose much of it has to do with productionnumbers. It would be interesting to see how much Challenge Stradale´s hold their value relative to 360 Modena´s. The second hand market for the more ´usual´ production-Ferrari´s are specifically for those of us who have the desire to own, drive and maintain a Ferrari, but are not willing or able to buy a new one. Those second hand cars provide us with a lower threshold to experience Ferrari and therefor will always have their own place in the market, priced accordingly. From a different view: those who can afford new Ferrari´s usually buy new Ferrari´s instead of used ones. I just hope to be able to buy a used one, some day.

Having said that: where are Mondial T´s in relation to the Mondial 8 or 3.2 on today´s market?

 

No, the 360 has a door behind the seats that gives access to the cambelts. This means that you don't have to perform the expensive "engine out" procedure. They just take out the seats.

 

i think the spider-versions will always be on top of the range. compare the dino 246 prices or any vintage ferrari - the spider versions are always higher rated. thats not only because of the smaller production numbers.
any open ferrari will be fun in 20, 30 or more years.

 

Depends on the buyer. In terms of number of sales, Berlinetta´s always were more popular amongst buyers. I don´t think that would be any different on the second hand market. I actually do believe the pricedifference in favour of the spiders in the used market, is mostly down to productionnumbers.

I must say, on another note, that I always prefer the Berlinetta´s, but since the 348 spider, Ferrari´s open versions always have looked mighty good. Even with the top closed.

 

A perfekt 308 will keep it's value.
(prefered: QV, Vetroresina, GTS , Carbs, EURO-Versions)
The 328 as well. (GTS, ABS)
For some reasons the 348s are in trouble and still falling:
High taxes because of bad emissions, controvers discussed shape,...
maintenance costs ...
They will end in the same price level like a 328.
Spyders & challenge versions are higher rated and more solid in value.

355 with low milage on the clock (20.000 km today) will suffer under depreciation when they reach 80.000 km on the odometer.
But cars in a good condition today with 80.000 km are already "cheap" right now. They should keep their value better.
If you go for a 355, you vote for a certain design.
As a classic pininfarina designed Ferrari, a 355 will find buyers even in 2010.
It will be loved more then many other Ferraris types.
Since the cambelt service isn't an engine out job anymore for an independent shop, the maintenance horror is relative.
For those reasons the 355 is very solid in value.
Some chatter won't believe, but try to find a cheap and good 355 today.
The prices are still high. Since years.
It seems to be similar to the Porsche 993 market!

360:
The "mass production" Ferrari of our days, not collectable.
More then 260 cars are currently offered in mobile.de (in comparison to only 109 355s).
Offers starting at 80.000 € ending up around 110.000 € for a "new" 360 Spider.
There in no place for a 360 in the garage of a new 430 owner.
When every 430-order is satisfied you can get all of them on the pre-owned marked.
Never catch a falling knife!
Spider F1 and Challenge Stradale will loose as well - starting on a higher level.
Some 360 will fall under the 355 level.

430:
Since we know a Gallardo is faster on the track, used 430s should go cheaper and cheaper.
A used 430 costs insane 150.000 € (2005, 5.000 km)
A used Gallardo just 120.000 € (2005, 5.000 km)
Any questions?


Mondials:
Who cares? The amount will be low.

TR's, 512TR's, 512TR M
Look at Ton's post!

550 and 575:
A good used 550 is available for 70.000 €.
The gap to the higher 575 is enormous.
The 575 has to fall.
The 550 will reach a valley at 55.000 € and rise again in 2010.

456 GT:
Best offer for the buck today.
You get a 300 km/h car, 12 cylinder, torque and 4 seats for 50.000 €
Nice styling in reality - not on every picture.
Estimation: around 40.000 € for a good 456 GT, some more for a M.
I should try to get one in 3 years.

612:
No orders, the factory did styling mistakes at the 612 front/face.
If you want to loose the absolutly highest amount of money you should buy an 612 today LOL.
I bet you can loose 100.000 € on this type in a few days.
**********************************************************
But: (fasten your seatbelts)

If the oil price is climbing high again and the economy ships in a rezession we all are in bad trouble.
The market for exotic cars would collapse soon.
People will simply be glad to stay mobile with a diesel car on 5 l liter consumption.
Money to purchase and feed a fun car will be short.
12 cylinder with 20 l super plus consumption will loose it's sense
if we can't get enough fuel for it.

Never trust this "car-thing"!
Don't 'invest' all you have in a doubtful future under oil market dependency.
It is just all about private consumption & fun.
Your $$$ will disappear with every car mentioned above.

cinque

 

I do!!

IYO, not Ferrari enough????

 

First of all, I understand the F430 is a much, much, much, much better car then the Gallardo. In all thinkable aspects. I doubt if the Gallardo is really faster in a track, but if it is, it sure as hell doesn't make it a better car.

Second, isn't it true that most people in the market for an F430, are in the market for an F430, not a Gallardo and even if they were, would the Gallardo really win them over, just by being theoretically faster on a track (what track?)?

The F430 is hot and many will be made and sold, but it will also be the car that took Ferrari to another level all together.

How about a 575 Superamerica? How will it depreciate compared to the 575M? Will the Superamerica, for it's outreagous (sp?) looks and limited productionnumbers, reach true vintage status in about 30 years?

 

I doubt that any of the regular produced Ferrari's will ever gain a vintage status. There are just too many. Ferrari changed it's market and aimed at different customers. Nowadays your wife should be able to do groceries with the Ferrari. The racing feeling is completely gone. Yes, they are still fast! But so is an Audi, Porsche, Lamborghini or NSX.
The factory sold it's soul when they changed it's marketing profile. But I giess that they had no choice. It is swim or drown nowadays.

The Superamerica will always be a bit more special than the 575 but it will never reach the status of a 365 GTB/4.

But Ferrari's will always keep a certain value. The better you treat them (low milage, first owner, full history) the better the marketprice.
But I agree that there are just too many 360's and there will definitely be too many 430's. This kills the status of the brand and destroys exclusivity.

So, the conclusion is that the older the machines are the rarer they are. In a few years time the Mondial will be a rare vehicle. Good examples will change hands for good money. The 365 GTB/4 will be priceless by then, and the 250 GT SWB can only be seen in a museum.

The "grey" area starts from the Testarossa untill the 355's. Productionnumbers went up dramatically. But still the numbers are relatively low. After the 355/456 the regular produced Ferrari's are a perfect way to loose your money.

The future will tell.

PS: This is a great thread!

 

Thanks Ton!!


and remember, they only made 703 Mondial 8.

 

The Mondial is a nice car! Many people can only dream to own one. Cherish yours!

 

I can see people only now warming up to the 400GT/400i/412i models. Same goes for the 250GTE. It wasn't very long ago when those were destined to be chopped up in order to become some replica. Now they are pretty sought after cars, and rightfully so. Who knows what will happen to the Mondial. Depending in the number of cars still in existence and general condition, perhaps they will remain great at value.

 

True, but one has to take into account that Ferrari has to satisfy a bigger market these days, with the far east getting ready to jump into a free market economy. China in itself is a giant instant-market for expensive European products. Besides, Ferrari's company-interest isn't in the market for used cars, allthough, of course, in the long term, the power of the brand is also a consequence of low productionnumbers. People always tend to want what they can't have, or even worse, what they can afford but still can't have.

 

Intresting thoughts in here

We clearly have a different view and opinion on some models but on some aspects we all agree so far.

The "high" production number of the 360's will indeed "kill" the price on the second hand market. The amount of cars to choose from will be big. Compared to the 360, it's clear to see that in the end the 355 will be the winner here, certainly when I read that a cambelt service isn't an engine out job anymore for some shops. Is this a fact? This could become very intresting! In time I see the F355 will become the most desired classic V8.

It's also obvious that the cars with lower production quantities will keep their value better. The F512M is indeed less beautiful then the older TR's but this will clearly become part of it's succes. The Challenge Stradale is in a league of it's own and won't suffer that much from the 360-"mass-production".

The same with the Spiders, they will always be worth more compared to the Berlinetta's because they are produced less. While it's true that popularity of a Spider compared to a Berlinetta is mostly a personal decision. Most people agree on the fact that a true sportscar should be a berlinetta (like many people agree that a true sportscar "should" be red ), that's the main reason they sell better IMO.
Still, other people , including me, would prefer a GTS or Spider in the end. It just depends on how you look at it.

All of the Mondial's, but especially the most recent ones, the Valeo and the cabrio's will continue to keep their current value for many years, there will always be people in the market for a nice 4-seater, more recent and sportier than a 412 but less expensive than a 456gt. I certainly can't believe the 456gt ever will be at current 412 price-level.
The overal package that a 456gt offers will make sure that this won't happen. Like I said before, this car is one of the true classics of the future. The desing isn't as breathtaking as the TR range fe... but I feel the 456gt's design is far more sophistacated. I believe the car is one of the most underestimated Ferrari's produced after 1980.

The 575 Superamerica! The limited productionnumbers of this one will certainly make it a "collectors item" in about 30 years altough it will be nothing compared to the real vintage Ferrari's we know now. But no doubt that the value of a Superamerica will always be a lot higher then the "normal" 550 and 575.



We shouldn't think about higher oil prices too much yet... it spoils the fun a bit... that would be a nightmare for many car enthousiasts... The sportscar market will indeed get major hits in the future... it will be a sad day when that starts happening.

And Ferrari's current market strategy? I guess they really didn't have that much choice... The competion is strong and demand is still high... in a segment that has an uncertain future it will become a struggle to stay alive.
But luckily Ferrari still tries to keep in touch with the initial company thought... and IMO they still succeed very well to preserve their image now, altough time doesn't stand still and you have to keep up

 

When the 412 was introduced everybody thought that this was a top model too. It had all the goodies that a modern car (in that time) could have.

Just wait!

Nevertheless I agree with Patrick. I am also considering to buy an M GT in a few years. They are beautiful, fast and practical Ferrari's. I would love to use this car as a daily driver!

 

Ferrari production numbers raised a lot because of the great succes last years in F1. Because of the less succes last year, and I don't expect it will be mucg better next years, I think sales numbers (so productionnumbers) will go down a bit. I wonder if the F430 will be as succesfull as the 360.

 

Remember that there is still a long waiting list! I don't believe that people buy Ferrari's just because they are succesful in F1. It is the overall race heritage that makes the brand in to what it is.

 

Remember Michael won 5 years in a row. The waitinglist has grown last years.
Ferrari S.p.a. thinks to reach a production number of 5000 this year.
It will be a record. They have a waitinglist for 2006 but the list is smaller then in december 2004.

and yes, this is "inside" information.

 

The problem is not the F1. It is the number of cars produced, the price of the cars and the loss of exclusivity because of the first item.
There are just too many. I would not be surprised if people look for alternatives (Zonda, Lambo, Koenigsegg, Noble, etc).