Lets get serious for a minute. Recession coming?

US Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions
http://www.nber.org/cycles/

The NBER does not define a recession in terms of two consecutive quarters of decline in real GDP. Rather, a recession is a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales. For more information, see the latest announcement on how the NBER's Business Cycle Dating Committee chooses turning points in the Economy and its latest memo, dated 07/17/03.

 

I predict hyper inflation some time in the near future and the US going into Iran which will really screw everything up. The US is already 9 trillion dollars in debt. To put 1 trillion dollars in prespective....if you put 1 million dollars in the bank everyday for a year (365 days respectivly) it would take around 2800 years to get 1 trillion dollars.

 

More likely in US, as rising interest rates will slow consumer spending.

The US deficit will have to end soon. The US debt will be a factor felt for the next decade.

[flame suit]George Bush is a colossal moron[\flame suit]

 

Is it wrong to hope for higher interest rates and a little slow down? I just think of all the houses that could be scooped.

Jason

 

Too true. That intermperate comment was the product of way too much red wine last night.

However, to have take the US economy from surplus to massive successive deficits in so short a time doesn't help.

 

I gotta tell ya..I'm a bit worried about how things are headed as well. People in general are in big time debt, over leveraged etc. With interest rates rising, and the price of pretty much every consumable product on the rise, people will stop spending money like they did. This will have a direct impact on everything. Now I just read in the paper, people buying new homes and condos are being hit with another tax (or levy). So not only are they paying a bunch of taxes, now they are getting taxed on that tax!!

Power is going up 15%, which will be follwed by natural gas increase, which will be follwed by...geez your gonna have to make 100k a year just to pay the bills! Its all gotta come to an end soon.

Thank god I used my head when I bought my home. I bought almost 100k less then what I could afford to buy. This left me with room for price changes and interest rate changes, and still able to afford some toys along the way. I think of of the folks out there that over extended themselves to get there dream home, with out realizing or taking into consideration interest rate changes. Many of these people are going to be forced to sell.

 

Tom you have a PM

 

I'm betting money on it actually. 26 years ago (1981) every single economic and political circumstance was exactly 100% identical to where we are at today. Everything.....

The problem today is you have a nation of people who either forgot, or were too young to even be aware of it......they think "things are different today"....LOL....funny that I heard that last time around too.....

The talk is already happening about how to tax Alberta's wealth to give to the other have not provinces......it's in all the papers and on TV.....

We have a MINORITY conservative government amongst (for the most part) a liberal population that exists in the have not provinces (or the always want more provinces.....like Ontario and Quebec) which will have to be bought off handsomely if the liberals want to topple Harper and get re-elected.

I give it 12-18 months or so until the leftist scumbags in this country get organized again and we end up with another election called due to the liberals......and the only way that they are going to get relected is obvious......isn't it ?

There is a ****in' huge recession coming........property will drop 35%........hundreds of thousands will be unemployed......I could go on for hours about the economics of it, some of which has been touched on here, and anyone who says "things are different" this time is just sticking their head in the sand because they are to scared to face the truth. And when you stick your head in the sand.....your ass is exposed.........

 

Last time property dropped between 35-50% across the board in Calgary.

This time I predict 35% merely because here in Calgary we had a 31% increase this year and 25% last year.......last time just before the bust we had a 50% increase in one year..........

I was a banker last time as well........I watched my loan and mortgage portfolio drop from $70MM to $48MM in 12 months due to devaluations and foreclosures. Today you have zero down programs......RRSP usage for downpayments, and incomes have not kept pace with property inflation......

 

How about 0% and cash back!

Then refinance to buy a pool or landscaping with the increase in equity every 8 months.

People are about to get rocked. Sad part is many do not even know their rate will change.

Jason Polzer