IMO the new dealer policies are keeping prices up and supply relatively low, for now.
What "method" do I use? I dunno, just the one I learned back in high school economics. You know, the one that says an incremental percentage increase in supply of a good or service will typically affect an incremental percentage decrease in price, assuming the number of buyers remains the same. At some point prices will decrease in the 430 market, just as they did in the 360 market, 355 market, and so on. The question is when? I gave it my best guess --12 months -- and I could be wrong. Hell, I hope I'm wrong! I have a 430 Spider coming in the spring. I love my 430 Coupe, but I am under no such delusion that this car will not depreciate.
Okay, that's a start. Where is the incremental supply coming from? All F430's are spoken for...there isn't a magical new amount coming from Italy. Personally, I don't care if the price increases or decreases. At some point (unless 80% of the F430's on the market spontaneously combust), the doomsday people will be right. I just want to keep it real about what is actually happening with F430 prices versus the people who are predicting the bottom falling out (see my two examples in my previous post).
Supply of "X" is increased each time one additional "X" is produced. Price elasticity is generally accurate, particularly with luxury items where demand is price sensitive, and driven by a very select number of buyers. Once that demand is fully supplied, then we will see prices begin to fall. It's simple microeconomic theory. BTW, you "dont care if the price increases or decrease"? Then why the posts on this subject, or asking me what "method" I use, or keeping up with whether Ferrari introduced some car in Paris that may or may not affect prices?
The flaw in the argument - with all respect - is that demand will never be supplied fully. Thus the increase in price pressure IMHO.
In 2000 the gentlemen that previously owned my coupe paid 185000 about 40000 over list. It's worth about 120 or so now. In a few years the 430 will follow suit. Probably.
"Never" is a very long time. Either you're right and in 10 years from now 430 demand will be as strong as it is now, or I'm right and demand for the 430 model will be displaced by successor Ferrari models. In other words, the same basic supply and demand forces that caused 355 and 360 Spider prices to drop will likewise force 430 prices downward.
Ummmm....I post because the last time I checked this was a discussion board. A discussion usually involves two people (unless you're hanging out in a padded room with a tight white jacket on). I don't care whether the price goes up or down...I am just interested in some of the bizarre economic theories applied on the board. Which is exactly why I wanted to know what made you think the way you do in your post. In your latest post, you talk about supply but you don't say anything about demand. In the case of F430's, demand will most likely not be satisfied until at least the end of production which means that prices will remain stable or increase. To the best of my knowledge, all F430's in the production queue are spoken for through the end of the production run. What isn't known is what's next and when it'll show up. If the next car is perceived to be better than the F430 then prices will probably weaken...if it is perceived to be less of a car then F430 prices could go up even further. As to when this will take place...anyone's guess...which is why I also cared about what was introduced in Paris.
And the funny thing is, they'll sell it... Other dealerships that cant sell cars send thier cars to Wynn to be sold nowadays...
I don't go along with the idea that all 430s in the production line are spoken for. I was at MAG yesterday looking around. They had a 612 on the floor looking for an owner, Ferrari of New England also has one on the floor looking for an owner. When I asked about a 430 they told me they had one that was due next month. Red/tan Daytona seats shields, red calipers etc. Could be mine from the dealer for 75K over sticker. The salesman said they had been selling V8s like that for three years. He told me if I wanted one at sticker maybe they could get me one in four years or so. I've had a deposit with Foreign Cars for three years, Have also purchased 355, a Maserati, and Porsche from them and I'm still waiting. Every time I call I'm told next allotment. I think if you put your money down and pay the big bucks you can get one anytime you want one. Very different story at Lambo of Ohio. Was offered a test drive in any car I wanted. New Gallardo on the floor was being aggressively discounted. I could spec out a new car, bet delivery by they end of the year and still get a discount. I know Lambos are the dark side second best and all. But you get 99% of the performance for 90K less and the dealer treats you well. Offered to pick up the car in a carrier for service, gave me a hard bound brochure, my son some Lambo key chains. It makes you think. If I don't get a call in the next 12 months or so to spec out my 430 I'll be very tempted to cross over.
Demand is affected by price. If today every 430 seller doubled the selling price, the pool of buyers willing to pay that price would decrease. Thus, less cars would be sold, and supply would increase. In such an event, a seller would lower the price in order to sell the car. Understand? A discussion board typically involves topics of interest. People care about things in which they are interested. I know I care whether prices go up or down, to a certain extent. In other words, if I could choose to have my car be worth $500K vs. -0- I would choose the former.
Just curious, as to why you're also getting a spider. honest questions. is there really a big difference in the rigidity compared to your coupe? some magazines say the jiggle through the steering wheel--in a spider-- is very noticeable on bumpy roads, some say the spider is rock solid (but obviously can't be as solid as the coupe). are you excited about the open air experience, more engine sound, different looks, etc? how do you compare the two experiences? you don't have to answer if you don't want to, i was just curious. If i could afford them, i would prob get both
I think that 430's are going to follow the same general descent in prices that 360's took - although probably more steeply if production ends and you early adopters all move to the next V8. It can't last forever though and unless I was certain I would keep a 430 forever, I would probably sell within 12-24 months and get something either on it's way up or holding steady in value. Maybe I will be proven wrong in the end, but I still think they're going to crank out nearly 15,000 430's. I will be the first to admit I am wrong when the line closes and we have some final stats. Production is creeping up at the factory - I read somewhere that the formerly imposed cap is gone - and I think the Asian market can absorb another few hundred cars a year at the least. I'm sure that the factory DOES NOT like to see Wynn getting $350k+ for a 430, as they are not absorbing any of that profit - that is nearly the price of two cars that the factory *could* have satisfied in the long run that won't be.
I'm not sure what you mean here. A 2003 360 coupe still sells for slightly under sticker, three years later. Personally, I don't see a F430 selling at sticker anytime soon. Particularly, because FNA has told the dealers that all bets are off. They can sell at market. Dale
I think you've passed the limits of what you learned in your high school economics class now. To the point, you're making an assumption about price elasticity (or inelasticity) that is unknown. In fact, the current market provides support that buyers are not very sensitive to price change (i.e., price is inelastic). What you've said might apply to a packaged product or consumable but does not really relate to luxury goods with relatively affluent buyers. Anyway, I'm not here to educate you on economics or market research methodologies or to start a bunch of flaming...I really just wanted to know why you would make a comment that "we'll all be in for a shock in the next 12 months as F430 prices drop considerably, especially on the coupe". I've seen too many people post comments like that here (e.g., CrazyCanuck) without being able to back it up with facts or even intelligent arguments.
This just happened at the dealer's meeting with FNA. It is the wild, wild West from here on out. Dale
hence the near $500k 599 someone was offered... this is interesting. As an economic choice it makes sense for the dealers. It just increased dramatically the value of Ferrari dealerships, which I'm sure took a beating from the whole Maserati thing. From the factory's perspective, it might offer them the opportunity to test the market more and see what their limit of production is before people stop lining up at MSRP. It might be 6,000 cars, maybe 8,000 per year...
Looks like it's that time of the month again for our good friend, sgcullen....Give up already, sgcullen, you can't stop flame baiting, can you? 575Mike, & vvvmd and others have presented well composed and logical arguments to back up their thoughts on where they think 430 pricing is headed, and why.... You say you "don't care about 430 prices", but every time a thread about pricing comes up where people think prices might come down, you get all paranoid and start attacking every one...relax a little. Here's facts that I provided in the last thread, when you were unable to:...(you know, the last time you "didn't care" about pricing)...I decided to do the let sleeping dogs lie in that thread when you were unable to provide the proof I asked for to back up your assertions that these cars were actually SELLING -- NOT JUST ASKING for HUGE premiums. http://ferrarichat.com/forum/showthread.php?t=116088&page=3 The reality is that the 430 market is different all over, and there are places in North America where 430's have sold UNDER MSRP. In Canada, where I live, used 430 coupes have sold under MSRP .. (see the example sited in the above thread) The details of the car are in the above thread, including what the exact MSRP #'s were...and it sold below that with about 1500 or so miles on it. REMEMBER, you can ASK whatever price you want..the deal, and subsequently Market Value is determined by what price a buyer and seller agree to do business at(whether that is above, below, or at MSRP) I have no problem with you disagreeing with an opinion, if you can back it up with some facts, like I did in that previous thread....resorting to calling people's arguments unintelligent when you are losing an argument, well that's just plain stupidity. I realize you will probably go off on some long diatribe trying to flame me or flame bait..but unless you have some intelligent arguments to put forward, such as the proof that you couldn't provide last time..give it a rest.. Reminds me of a prof I had many years ago in university who used to say : " Opinions are like as$-holes, everyone's got one" As much as you like pissing contests, let's bring this thread back on topic. For a guy that "doesn't care about 430 pricing", you sure have a lot to say about the topic.
does anyone know how to find out what some of these cars actually sold for? (not the asking price). Would be useful in negotiating a deal.
This is GREAT news. Those that have played "the game" for years won't like it, but if this news is for real we now finally have a level playing field. No more kissing dealer ass for a new car. No more paying dues buying/selling cars you didn't really want to "get on the list". Money talks. The way it should be.
Actually, it may mean survival for some, particualry for dealers like Mr. Risi who is a long-time Ferrari (and Maserati) dealer only. Do the math, if your allocation is 50 new cars a year, and you don't own other non-Ferrari dealerships to help prop you up, making $25,000 a car ain't gonna cut it. Yeah, they make a lot of money on parts, but their service rates are competitve with other lines. (Plus, if you believe what Rifle Driver says, FNA beats them down on warranty work.) My guess is that owning a few Subway outlets will make more money. Dale
I image that each dealership will handle this in their own way. I'm guessing that the corporate dealers will definitely sell to the highest bidder. However, my guess is that the long-time dealerships are not going to forget the importance of the old saying that, "You gotta dance with who brung ya." Dale
Glad to answer. I'm getting my Spider from Lake Forest. Tyler Dean is my representative there. I've been a loyal customer. The 430 Coupe is amazing, as you know. When I see a Spider and a Coupe side by side I think the Coupe is aesthetically more pleasing. Perhaps it's the romantic in me that enjoys a crisp fall morning or a summer evening -- the sound of a Ferrari V8 at full song, with the wind in your hair, and a gorgeous woman in the passenger seat (who happens to be my wife)! Any time you are in the "neighborhood" please look me up and you're welcome to drive the Spider when I have it.
