Poll Re: 2007 Barrett-Jackson

I bet if those numbers are redone with the $1MM + cars removed you'd have a much larger overall drop in the average sales price.

 

Your average price per car really doesn't say much, as the cars are not the same from year to year. I think the way to evaluate the market is to compare (for example) what a Daytona brought every year against one in almost idential condition, and do the same type of analysis with a bunch of different cars. Based on this type of analysis, I think prices actually went up slightly.

 

That wasn't the subject of the poll for this thread; just the overall average price of what sold.

 

I did this for '06 and '07 but not in exactly the same way. I was only able to compare cars of the same year and model - I wasn't able to do so with the same condition. I think on average some categories of cars went up ('70 Cuda) but other popular categories went down (early Tbirds, 1st gen Camaros, some C1, C2 Corvettes). I'm assuming you already saw it too but in case others haven't.

http://www.ferrarichat.com/forum/showpost.php?p=136409980&postcount=68

 

Nice work. Those are some amazing numbers.
2006 saw 3 1955 Chevy 210 customs sell for an avg of $77k.
2007 saw 5 1955 Chevy 210 customs sell for an avg of $47k.

and 1955 Chevy 3100 customs dropped from $129k down to $51k.

with '55 Chevy Bel Airs dropping from $92k down to $56k.

Wow!

 

Thanks,
I would have more faith in the examples where there are at least 10 cars in each year. Some of them may have had history, been a custom car, or had any number of other features that pulled prices up or down. I do have the individual cars for those categories, but it doesn't have much in the way of specifics.

For instance these are the results from the ones you picked out
2006
1955 CHEVROLET 210 CUSTOM 90,720.00
1955 CHEVROLET 210 CUSTOM 81,000.00
1955 CHEVROLET 210 CUSTOM 59,400.00

2007
1955 CHEVROLET 210 CUSTOM 2 DOOR 25,300.00
1955 CHEVROLET 210 CUSTOM 2 DOOR 50,600.00
1955 CHEVROLET 210 CUSTOM 2 DOOR 77,000.00
1955 CHEVROLET 210 4 DOOR 9,900.00
1955 CHEVROLET 210 CUSTOM TUDOR 2 71,500.00

Obviously the 4 door probably doesn't belong but still ave prices are lower 77,040.00 (06) to 56,100.00 (07) without the 4 door.

There was only one 1955 3100 Custom in 2006 so it appears to have been exceptional in some way.

The '55 Belair is potentially more reliable. While there is an outlier in 2006, why wasn't there a similar vehicle in 2007? I think that is one potential indication that the crazy valuations weren't happening this year.

2006
1955 CHEVROLET BELAIR 2 70,200.00
1955 CHEVROLET BELAIR NOMAD 43,200.00
1955 CHEVROLET BELAIR 2 54,000.00
1955 CHEVROLET BELAIR CONVE 126,360.00
1955 CHEVROLET BELAIR CUSTOM 58,320.00
1955 CHEVROLET BELAIR CONVE 109,080.00
1955 CHEVROLET BELAIR CUSTOM 210,600.00
1955 CHEVROLET BELAIR CUSTOM 97,200.00
1955 CHEVROLET BELAIR 2 60,480.00

2007
1955 CHEVROLET BEL AIR CUSTOM 2 18,700.00
1955 CHEVROLET BEL AIR CONVE 66,550.00
1955 CHEVROLET BEL AIR SPORT COUPE 45,100.00
1955 CHEVROLET BEL AIR CUSTOM 2 40,700.00
1955 CHEVROLET BEL AIR CUSTOM 2 52,800.00
1955 CHEVROLET BEL AIR CONVE 74,800.00
1955 CHEVROLET BEL AIR 2 DOOR 33,000.00
1955 CHEVROLET BEL AIR CUSTOM 2 30,800.00
1955 CHEVROLET BEL AIR 2 DOOR 51,700.00
1955 CHEVROLET BEL AIR CUSTOM 2 104,500.00
1955 CHEVROLET BEL AIR 2 DOOR 101,750.00

 

I voted that way too. My questioning is more in the line of who in their right mind would pay $29,000 for a VW "Thing", and isn't the prices on "average" cars continuing to go up?

 

2008 BJ posts 1137 cars as sold on their web site right now for a total of $76,892,250.00

That's an average per car sales price of $67,627.31 for this year (2008).

77.7% of 2007 prices (a 22.3% decrease year on year).

 

This is an intersting thread. First I wonder how many people will vote in the poll not realizing this was started two years ago!

I was watching the auction on and off for the last few days. It was interesting to see the days end totals. It was easy to get a rough estimated average and it was only up to about $35K until Friday. I think there were a LOT of dissapointed consignors this year to say the least.

It was nice to see they didn't bother with shill bidders this year and just resorted to openly bidding on cars themselves.

 

I noticed a big drop in prices as well. Tues-Fri were pretty disappointing with so many "recreations" but Sat night was pretty good, as far as quality of cars. Prices were noticably lower than last year though. I'd guess 30-40% lower on nice muscle cars.
Ferraris did well with a 328 going for $70k at BJ and an early steel 308 going for $66k at the RM auction. Even the 308 pizza disaster brought a surprising $18.5k.
The weak dollar-demand may be helping Ferraris.

 

OK, so do we think that the one asset class that will hold up in this deep recession is Red Ferraris's?? while like all of us i love the marque and love the mystical history, its a bit wishful thinking.
I dont know what happend in Arizona this weekend, since 1. I was not there 2.TV helps 3. it is a non homogenuous sample from year to year.
Like most of us, i have paid allot of money for my cars, and watched my recently bought toys jump in value every year. But i have to maintain honesty and analyze with the observable data as it stands not hopes and wishes.

The factors i would say:

1. euro is set for a fall in the upcoming weeks/months as this weakness spreads into europe - you have not seen a mess untill you looked into European bank's. This will tend to depress prices
2. US will dry up forther, stocks are set to continue to fall
3. while other asstes are easily observed, I dont think collector cars are as easily analysed. Still, you can expect a slower reaction to volatile stock prices.
4. its not clear that the new money form Asia/ CES etc.. is buying collector cars, lets not depend on this to put a floor on prices.

ok so what do i think is the likely scenario (all estimates):

A. non intrinsic-value collector cars (American cars with 1000 or more production run, European secondary cars) will deflate by 60-70 pct in the next 24 months
B. upcoming collectible (308's, 330's, 246, 330 gtc etc...) will drop by 30-40 pct
C. event cars (mille -meglia eligible, historic racers) will drop by 30 pct
D. True collectibles (one offs, limited series, cars with significant history) will drop by 30%.

When you think of the above, its simply a reversal of the past 3 years, but NOT a scenario back to 1991.

Having said that, there is a non zero likelihood of a global recession that will see all asset prices deflate by 40%, thus cars will tend to underperform.

while i know these views are hard to accept, they are mine, and if you decide to discuss i plead of you lets discuss the matter at hand...

rgds
elad