F prices during recession

Historically how have F prices held up during deep recessions?

my hypothesis is better than most brands [like, say Porsche] as a large % of the owner base is impervious to economic downturns, and only a small % hold their F's with weak hands.

i've read the threads saying 360's may fall, and that the loss of only 10% say of these weak hands will cause prices at the margin, i.e. the market price if you want to sell, to drop. is there general agreement on this?

right now in $ terms strads, e.g., are strong, although $200K today for a low mile strad is the equivalent of 185 in 2004 due to the drop in the value of the $US.

in LA overs have dropped at dealers but they are still overs [e.g., 599 over may be down to $120K]

dave from LI said:

To whomever who has observed the economy having an effect on Ferrari sales: please let me know where an F430 can be purchased new from a dealer at MSRP. I have some takers in my family.

I really don't think that day is here or that it will ever come. Until it does, I still believe the economy has little effect on Ferrari sales.

Of course, 12 cylinder Ferraris always have been less saleable than the V8 cars due to their enormous prices. So yes, I could see 12 cylinder cars being affected some

any voices of experience out there?

 

There was a thread about this a few weeks ago, you may get your answers quicker if you search for a recent thread.

 

The price issue is still changing. As the recession worsens I think that some of the marginal owners will lose their cars, driving prices down. That's fine by me, I'd like to get my third car an CS, but 180 is way to high, but 150 is about right.

Art

 

$150k for a CS? Dreaming ...

 

US is a market onto itself. Always interested to hear voices of experience in the market that I do not understand

 

I think that you're absolutely correct about the higher end models like the 599. A recession isn't really going to effect the average 599 consumer. When it comes to Ferrari's like the 360, I think it's a different story. It seems that a lot of people who made quick cash in the recent housing boom spent a lot of money on exotic cars. A disclaimer: this is just my observation of what's happened in Los Angeles. There was seemingly a lot of new exotic car owners right after the dot com boom and then that rolled over into the rising real estate market. I started noticing a LOT more exotic cars around LA where before it wasn't as common to see a Ferrari or Lamborghini, etc. Now that the housing market has tanked and the capital markets are suffering, a lot of the guys that made quick money will end up selling their cars because things have changed and it's not the same market anymore. This is obviously especially true of anyone who was in the mortgage business. I think there will be a drop in the value of most of the Ferrari models like the F355, 360, 550/575, and 612. The Stradale should hold steady because it's a car that a lot of people admire and it's in demand. Just like the F430.

 

what ever happened to tmobileguy?

 

It seems to me that the 599 with a big premium is vulnerable. It simply doesn't make sense that the 599 buyer pool that is paying a premium is unaffected by a recession. Some must be involved in property or retailing and a hurting business dampens enthusiasm to spend even if you can still afford to. Other potential buyers might be tempted by bargains in distressed assets and divert spending away from things that they perceive to be relatively expensive because they have held up better. 599 buyers that are well enough connected with dealers to buy at list are probably largely unaffected although some will be less interested if the premium disappears and they have to actually pay to enjoy the car. I would have thought that the new 612 buyer is a completely different profile - they were always facing big depreciation and were simply buying the car because they wanted to. If this logic is correct, most of the new 612 buyers must be very strong financially

 

+1

I'm seeing the same thing. A lot of people overextended themselves need cash and are unloading their cars.

 

so are the 599 buyers. remember, they only sell a couple thousand worldwide. I have a couple thousand people in my neighborhood that won't be affected by a recession. But, as i have said before, 360's-in the toilet. 308, 328, 348, tr, and to a lesser extent 355's don't really have too much farther to fall, so i think they will be relatively stable.

 

So, where is the "toilet" in pricing?

Does that mean that 360's are gonna creep down into 355 prices?

If it does, then they'll get pushed down too.

The argument that 355, 348 etc have moved as far as they will is spurious. If the prices on Used Ferraris (1990-2004) fall, then they should all fall. After all, those who are still in the market aren't going to buy a 355 if a 360 is only a few thousand more. It's still a luxury buyer's market, and there is only so much supply to meet even a falling demand.

Does anyone see 1st year 360 Modenas falling into the $80K range soon on a regular basis? Sure, high mileage or scary history cars are going to be harder to sell, but no way are good cars suddenly going to start hitting the "holy ****, I have to sell right now!!!" market at rock bottom prices, I just don't see that.

I know there are too many 360 spyders out there at the moment, (at least at some dealers) and that may be as a result of scared redcession effected sellers, but I think it's more likely that these are trade in cars from 430 buyers. More likely to see the price gap between coupe and spyder narrowing, I would bet.

Sure the prices will slide, these are still depreciating assets with ZERO collector value, but I doubt there will be a wholesale slaughter in value over the next 18 months. After all, look at the pricing on the new ones, which should help prop up used car values.

Premiums on new or lightly used 430s? They may be a thing of the past, sooner rather than later. First thing to go in a recession is paying extra for something that's gonna fall into the used market anyway.

I just don't see a collapse in this market. 10% correction? Sure, maybe 15%, but not the 30% that some guys are hoping for.

 

Late model Ferraris tend to depreciate until they are 10-12 years old, and then they more or less hold steady in nominal dollars.

A recession will probably make those cars depreciate a bit quicker, but the end result will be the same. I would expect perhaps slightly more than average depreciation for the 360 series since they built such a huge number, but on the other hand the performance and overall good reputation of the 360 will help counter that a little.

I would think a 360 would always be worth a bit more than a 355.

 

355s, 360s and 430s still have a ways to go. Early 360 modenas solidly average under $105k now with some cars available for under $95k. At a 5% drop per year - which is conservative - the early 360s will be around $80k in three years. There are tons on the market and more and more 430s hit the market every day. The economy won't help these used cars which were already seeing declining demand over the past few years when the economy was good. 308s, 328s, 348s, and TRs could get pressured a bit downwards with more of the newer cars reaching a lower-priced territory, but only time will tell. How much lower can 3x8s really go anyway? Just my thoughts.

 

When the last bubble broke as the 80ies ended 250 GTO's went from 17 Million to 3.5 Million. The double Le Mans winning Ford GT went from 8 Million to 2.5 Million. Those that think this Break will not be as severe may be right but I wouldn't bet my kidneys on it. During that Period 88 TR's went from 300K to 100K and down to 45K today. Keep in mind that Ferrari is going to be raising production almost 80% into this storm. IMHO it's going to be a little rough for a while. People tend to forget that there are LONG periods when things go sideways at Best. In the 60ies the DOW stayed range bound for 16 years.

 

IIRC he had a timing belt "adventure" and had to liquidate. I haven't seen him here for a while.

 

Sounds like good news if you're in "cash" and prepared to buy.

 

Well said. Unfortunate as those words may be for us Ferrari owners in the short-term.

I agree that "luxury items" will become "unnecessary items" when economic times get hard. A Ferrari is going to be one of those life pleasures that most people will do without when unemployment increases. The sudden increase in supply and reduced spirits on the buying side will be reflected in much lower prices.

I have no idea how bad the upcoming recession will be, but there are quite a few indications that it could be long and pretty rough. Normally cash is the thing to have during rough times, but I'm not so sure that is the best advice this time around.

Anyway, it might be the best time to buy a second Ferrari in a year or two (or for the people who already own several, the best time to buy that special Ferrari you've always wanted).

 

Please keep in mind that the Motorist Enthusiast now has viable options to buying a used Ferrari.

A used, mildly modified Evo or WRX will significantly outperform many popular earlier Ferrari models which sell for a lot more money.

So the question: is the Ferrari Mystique capable of weathering not only a recession, but viable competition?

Probably: there is something about a Ferrari...

 

don't know where "in the toilet" will end up, but it will be well south of 100k. when a car falls then starts to slowly rise, that is usually considered the bottom 308,328,tr and possibly 348 have done that. even if they were to fall from their current price, there isn't reall yfar for them to go. i doubt we are gonna see nice 328's or tr's selling for 35k anytime soon. the 360 on the other hand will get killed in the next 18 months. Did you notice there are 85 360's for sale in fml? there are 9 308's and 12 328's (only 2 89's). when you consider a lot of the owners of 360's and the coming financial scene (actually already here for those that know) you do the math.

 

A Silver/Red CS ,not very clean , with 17k+ miles sold recently at LFSC for over $170k.
I don't see any drop in values for these....

 

I'd take my recent purchase, from a dealer, as an indication of the market.

2000 360 Modena, titanium/black 6 speed manual transmission, 15K miles, cosmetically and mechanically perfect, with 60 day warranty from the dealer. $107,500. They were asking $120,000. All records since new, needs belt service (pre-priced at under $2K) which will be done by the dealer.

So, basically $109K for a fresh belt serviced 2000 360 Modena.

Is that gonna lose another 20% in 18 months? Make it a $85K car? I don't know, but we can revisit this thread in 18 months, we'll know then.

I don't see them falling that low, but I could be wrong. And in my case I'm happy with the car, not gonna sell anytime soon andhad a certain amount of depreciation built into my ownership cost calculation.

Dave

 

As far as the factory's role in the evolving market consider that their interests are not necessarily the same as those of us who are owners presently. In an atmosphere of reduced demand the scheduled increase in supply would seem to assure a reduction in prices, particularly since a new lower priced F-Car is in the offing.

 

Agree,
Show me another car that loses only 20% in 18 months.......

 

I don't feel a new lower priced Ferrari will effect the value of the rest of the line. Two different customers.

 

Obviously that's what the factory thinks as well. The question is what will happen to the used market when there are new F Cars available at the same price.
Bear in mind that the new buyers won't be of the same mind set as those who own now and will be making purchasing decisions in a different way.