F prices during recession

The 599 premium IS vulnerable. I can't see dealers charging the same premium they're currently charging in the next year. The premium will still be there though even if it's a lot lower then it is currently, and the buyers will still be there to pay those premiums. I didn't mean that 599 buyers are completely unaffected by a recession, but I think you would agree that the degree to which it will effect most potential 599 buyers is very small.

 

I would think that F's strategy into the storm here makes sense. Production is increasing on a more entry level car to compete with other brands. And, the 430 replacement will be more expensive/exclusive so it'll still have the "gotta have it" thing going for it. While the world's economies are teetering there are still a lot of wealthy customers out there and more so than ever. But, even the rich pull in their reins in times of heavy uncertainty. F's marketing strategy of less cars then realistic demand will ensure that they stay strong. IMO the 430 will continue a slower depreciation because the replacement will be significantly more expensive, but older F-cars may see a steeper decline in today's uncertain environment. The 599 will probably see a stronger depreciation over the next while as the typical 12-cylinder heavy depreciation begins to kick in more and novelty wears off. 612's will fall off a cliff

 

i think you're kinda making my point. you would agree that buying a near perfect car from the dealer would represent the high water mark?

 

Yep. I think it would be close to it.

What I was saying is I think we'll see the same kind of depreciation that the market has seen, and if we don't then it will trickle down through the market for 355 and 348, but probably not 328 308.

Dave.

 

what market? the stock market? I'm thinking more of a hit to the 360. my thinking is the only thing keeping the price up is the sellers of the 100+ for sale right now don't need to sell them and that's why there are so many for still for sale. i'm thinking when the **** really hits the fan over the next year, many are going to have to sell and they will have a lot of competition. maybe i'm reading the situation wrong, but i'm a pessimist.

be happy you didn't buy a gallardo, there are 296 on dupont alone! interesting to see what happens to this. i think they have only made a little over 5k of them to date verses the 16k(?) 360.

 

Entry level??? The new puppy will be priced a RCH under an F430. All 4K of them...

 

I dont understand this. What does a RCH under an F430 mean? TIA.

 

My feeling is let somebody else buy the car with zero miles and take the biggest hit.
I have never bought a zero mile brand new car in my life and probably never will.

I believe the key is to find the best used car available and have minimum depreciation on your purchase.

We all know that as soon as you drive a brand new car off of the lot (most models) that your gonna gat slammed!!

 

"What does a RCH under an F430 mean?"


Just a (very) little bit less than an F430. It took me a minute, too.

 

In this day of extreme laser hair removal it's meaning may be difficult to understand but us old guys still remember when it was the finest of measurements. (The American/SAE Definition)

SAE: Red **** Hair
Metric: Royal **** Hair (Grey)

 

Damn, nobody got that? I'm 33 and got a nice chuckle out of it. Here's a hint: C U Next Tuesday.....
Political Correctness gone array.

 

was wondering what the "R" was. Is red hair appreciably thinner?

 

The production numbers are too small, and the prices of the new ones are spiraling upward. As a result, any F-car over about 12 years old is basically DONE depreciating. That's the end of it.

 

Yeah right. There are a lot of 355 owners who wish depreciation would stop right now. Check back in six months.

 

I just talked to him the other day. He's doing well. I bought his 348 back in May 2007. I was actually considering selling it back to him, running now though! 348's appear to be recesion proof considering their pricing.

 

It'll be the least expensive F-car in the line up, thus entry level. The 430 replacement will be where the 430S is now, base i.e. $260K+ish. The California GT will be about $220K although originally it was to be $190Kish. Probably $40K+ difference in price between the F149 and F142.

 

The 355 is a different animal. While the 355 owners out there will howl, it's essentially a 348 with some upgrades and styling changes, although by many accounts, less reliable than the 348. It still commands a premium over the 348, but that premium shrinks each year.

In 5 more years, it will only be a slight premium ($10K or less) from the 348 to the 355. It's a similar relationship to that of the 308 & 328, although the 328 was considered to be a much more reliable version of the 308. The 355 - while it certainly has its positives - just as certainly cannot claim superior reliability over the 348. That's unfortunate for 355 owners, because the 355 will continue to gravitate to the 348 pricing levels.

Meanwhile, the 348s (TS and TB) are fetching roughly the same money they were 5 years ago - about $47K for a nice TB, $50K for a nice TS. The Spider has slipped about $5K to the $55K range.

 

How many of you were involved in these cars back in the early 90's price crash ?

How many of you even know of it, or remember what happened if you were there ?

The asset appreciation cycle is simply repeating itself again. That is why I ask.....I was around selling high end cars back then. It's deja-vue today.......

Stocks, RE, art, collectibles, cars, stocks, RE, art, collectibles, cars.......etc.....etc......the money moves round seeking returns and a perception of safety.

There was some clown working at a dealership in Ft. Lauderdale who sold a new yellow Diablo to a guy for $700K back then....ROTFLAMO....!!! Good thing too....because he probably didn't clip the guy twice. His DuPont registry ads proclaimed they would soon be $1MM cars....!!!!! F40's were over a $1MM and even 328 GTB's were $150K......LOL !!!

Etc.......etc.......etc.......sound familiar ???

Today we have Boxer's and F40's.......doubling in price in 2 years.......older F-cars selling at stratospheric sums......new cars selling over list for 6 figure premiums.....

Enzo can only die once......and the reckoning will come......as it always does.......I remember in the early to mid nineties new F-cars going begging in dealer showrooms.

 

I think that you just said what everyone is afraid to say. I certainly remember dupont registry's with $250k 246 dinos, $300k+ anniversary countachs and 1MM 288 GTOs and Daytona Spiders. It is an interesting and wild market to watch over the long term.

 

I was around back then. My brother was quite involved.

I certainly think that in the case of muscle cars, you are absolutely right. Ferraris, I don't think have appreciated anywhere near what they did back then. Certainly there could be some retrenching, especially in the newer cars, but I don't see another crash. Maybe I'm wrong, though.

 

I agree - except for the new, rapidly depreciating Ferraris (360, 430, 599, 612) I don't see much of a price 'bubble' anywhere except maybe the Dino 246. The vintage stuff is legitimately rare, and it doesn't take 10,000 avid Lusso buyers to prop up the price. For the 360/430/599, I can see things getting very soft.

At the lower end, I think the 308 is has a good reputation and is underpriced right now. As the economy softens, Ferrari enthusiasts may take another look at those and decide that $200K for a 430 is a bad move, but $40K for a weekend toy is feasible. As others have posted, there isn't much downside to these cars anymore (you could put a new engine/gearbox in a 308 every year for the kind of depreciation some of the newer cars will be sustaining...)

 

I know many guys that thought the same in 1988, in fact they thought any F-car over two years old was done depreciating. No one here has the answer, but I would say that we have not hit the peak, as a bunch of guys will think that F-cars are a good place to put there money for a little while, until they have to sell them too, then it is all down hill.

 

But will alll the guys thinking the $40K weekend toy is feasible drive the price of them up to $50-80k for a while holding them up until they crash back to $40K after a few years. Remember when 308's were approaching $100K in 1989? I think they will all take a degree of hit within the next 18 months.

 

Be that as it may or may not be you think 4K additional new "entry level" Ferrari's at 220K gonna fly off the shelves in this environment? Suppose they do think used prices won't fall? I'm not sure what will happen but I do think it will be interesting to watch. Not to mention Lambo raising production as well...

 

16 years is a long decade!