F prices during recession

Sticker on my 07 was 181k. I suspect that at some point in time it will be worth about 140-150. I can live with that no problem, I'll get a lot of enjoyment from that. Unless the replacement is really something special, this will probably be my last new Ferrari. I've already bought a Mondial t, and would really like a 60s 12 cylinder, but unless the price drops dramatically, I can't afford one, especially when I'm thinking about retiring. However, if the price does drop on those older cars, I think that I will get one.

I'm told that the new 430 replacment will be in the range of 260 - 280k, well above what I paid for mine, so I would need to think long and hard about getting one at those prices. The 430 has quite a bit of power, and even in "race" mode, if you gas it up, the traction control cuts in, or you'd fry the tires, so I wonder exactly what Ferrari will do to improve the car, I suspect that they are pretty close to the limit, especially on a street car, that's driven anywhere near the speed limits, so I wonder just how big any improvment will be. Clearly, something to think about.

Art

 

Not only Ferrari, but performance cars in general. Lambo, Audi R8, Corvette ZR1, etc. At this point was is left to do on a "street" car? Most drivers cannot drive them w/o the traction control engaged or at least shouldn't do it. In some states a 100MPH plus ticket results in an impounded vehicle and handcuffs. Not a "here's your ticket" and go type stop. I guess if we were going to discuss improvements, it would be reducing vehicle weight since all cars in general have put on pounds. But it's not as sexy as carbon brakes that for me don't pass cost benefit analysis.

 

Try a 430S or a GT-R. You will be shocked. Technology is accelerating big time. Gassing a 430S hard out of a corner is fricking unbelievable - it just doesn't seem possible. I have a Formula Renault and am very sensitive to progressive acceleration/grip but the electronics on the 430S are simply spectacular

 

This is a fantastic chart. Bloody well done old boy!

 

Recession ........... what recession. Current US issues are concentrated within the subprime and a few select financial entities. People with subpar credit, subpar cash reserves are the ones affected. The majority of the people buying high priced items earning high incomes are simply not affected.
Demand for Ferrari far exceeds supply. Was in Miller Motocars last week and they had customers waiting in line to place orders. Same scenari for LI Ferrari.
US / Global recession... nonsense. Take a look at the price history of US Steel up 50 points in one month, Look at CAT, SLB, AKS all at or near record highs.
People like Henry Kravis, Stevie Cohen, Bruce Kovner, etc still will earn hundreds of millions per annum even in a "bad" year. They are still spending tens & tens of millions of dollars on homes, cars, artwork, watches etc etc. Even a mildly successful money manager will earn a few million a year. There are enough high income earners around to keep the upscale real estate, auto and art economies afloat.
Recesion affects the middle class and lower class income levels and most of these people are not buying higher priced Ferraris and multi million dollar homes. Price recession for Ferrari will not be affected by a US slowdown only by the good old law of supply and demand.

 

Are you kidding me?

 

So what happaned in 1990-91?

 

You would think the prices would drop, sellers may have a harder time selling with fewer buyers but I can tell you I have 3 months into looking for a clean 360 F1 coupe and still my garage is empty.

 

Recession doesn't seem to have slowed Napolis down, for example.

I think, though, that the key question is whether there are enough people who fit that profile. Certainly among the buyers of $1MM plus cars, there are probably not too many with sub-par credit, but what about the $50k Ferrari buyers? Or the guys who stretch to the $100k level.

 

As you imply there is not a single Ferrari market and no typical buyer (or seller for that matter).

 

In 89 every Ferrari model pricing was skyrocketing due to speculation. Vintage, Daily Drivers, then current showroom cars and even cars yet to be produced. None of it made sence, a simple frenzy caused by speculation.

Today we see normal depreciation on "just out of production" models yet steady prices for high quality limited production models, be it Vintage cars or small run series within a model.

This current market will weed out the marginal cars, premiums being paid for new models and high ticket prices on over produced models. I still see a high demand for exceptional cars across the board. Buyers market? Yes, but I have yet to see a 355GTB I would buy for $50K.

Dave

 

I dont know where you come up with this theory of no recession. For example, people that were used to making alot of money in stocks, etc, have taken an absolute beating. You dont think these people that made quick money over the last ten or so years went out and bought a ferrari or any exotic car at that. What about the housing situation, have you not seen the million dollar + estates that are being foreclosed on and sold for pennies on the dollar? How about the value of the dollar, and gas prices? are these people that you speak of not affected by this? do they get some kind of special treatment? This does effect everyone, and it is going to get worse before it gets better. The first things to go in peoples lives when times are hard are second homes and toys. What that means to the exotic car market is a over abundance of pre-owned inventory, and when this happens prices go down, and dealers will compete harder to sell used exotics that they are paying floorplan interest on. Sometimes the it is hard to accept the truth but you cant ignore it forever. That doesnt mean that the rare cars such as the 250gto or a 288gto are going to be available for stupid low prices. Cars like those are rare and will always be worth what the collectors are willing to pay. However your basic 360s,430s,612s,etc will be greatly affected. They were more massly produced (in ferrari terms) than the others, and we will see a significant price drop on these cars. They still are what they are which is beautifully hand crafted automobiles, but to say that this "economic situation" will not play a part in the sales of these is ludacris.

No offence meant with this, I am just giving my two sense which may not be worth anything.

 

I agree. The prices will go down as the recession progresses. In that big recesiion at the end of the eightees, money was being taken out of the market and into collectibles, and those eventually tumbled too.

 

I think recession is being used abit to extreme in this case. I think its more of a correction, people that were over extended had no business in being in products they couldnt afford. Those that planned will be fine, maybe tighten there belts, but fine.

This is more than likely the new economy, modest growth of 1-2% as opposed to this American thinking that everything needs to have double digit growth year over year. Remember there are growing markets in the world now, this aint the 60s, the US and North American have only 350M people when you compare it to 6B world wide. Ferrari is open in China, Russia and the Middle east now alot more than in the past....the US market will most likely not be its major market in a decade. Where is the largest per capita ferrari ownership again ? Switzerland i think....it is what it is.

 

A recession is a term with a precise meaning - 2Q's of negative growth

America has not had double digit growth for a very long time. 1-2% growth is modest compared with the past few years but 2-3% is probably quite acceptable subject to inflation

Problem is that the US is still the heavyweight. Other markets are growing faster but from a low base

 

Recession does not affect all people and all markets. It serves to clear out the exceses and restore balance to a market that has been extended too far by greed and speculation. As per your comment about buying high end real estate for pennies on the dollar, I assure you that it does not exist in very desireable areas. Try buying a house in one of the best locations in Greenwich, CT, Pelham Manor, NY, waterfront areas in Rye,NY, Malibu, CA, new York City etc. You will find no bargains here, no fire sales, no recession sales.

Case in point- I went to look at a beautiful home in Pelham Manor, NY on Wednesday of this week. Belonged to the Berlitz language family built in 1918. Asking price was 1.5 million. Called my realtor today to make an offer on it and it was already sold and for 1,7 mill- 200K over asking andon the market for only 3 days!. Had an appointment to look at a home in Greenwich tomorrow and my appointment was just cancelled, yep-house sold.

I am sure I cna find the million dollar forclosed homes you speak of in the typical builder's developments in places like Atlanta, West Virginia, Alabama, etc. But these are over valued highly inflated homes that were fairly valued at 400k, yet being marketed as million dollar homes.

Pick up a copy of Institutional Investor or Trader magazine. Take a look at some of the salaries. Do you realy think a guy earning 400 million a year is wooried abot $3.85/gallon gasoline. One guy earning this type of income will put more mony back into the economy than 100 middle income familes.

Go to the other end of the spectrum. Amazon reported earnings- near record numbers. I imagine these people have not found out about about the recession.

With respect to Ferrari, i beleive their production is about 6k worldwide. I think there is enough wealthy people in the Universe to quicky absorb all the supply.

ith respect to the stock market, people only take a beating when they don't do their homework and buy at bubble prices. The market will ineviitably correct and it is then that people cry recession or poor me, lost my money. If you bought US Steel at 20 bucks a share, you are a very happy camper. If you buy US Steel today for the long term at 152, you may be very sorry,as it too, will correct it excess.

Recession, I don't see it. I simply see economies that have been at artificial highs rverting back to a more normal sustainable level. Just my opinion from observation, study and from dealing with some of the wealthiest people in the world.

 

And this means what in terms of possible over inflated collector Ferrari values?

 

It means collector Ferrari values are probably not "over inflated." Certainly not undervalued, but not necessarily over valued either.

Modern out of production cars (360, 456, 550/575) may depreciate a bit faster than they would have otherwise.

 

I'm waiting for prices to take a dump

I have something special on my radar

 

+1

 

Please direct me in the direction of these million dollar homes for "pennies on the dollar" - I'm sure at even 25 cents on the dollar I can be in a positive cash flow position renting these "pennies on the dollar" million dollar homes, considering I'm getting $1,500 to $2,200 a month on my less than 1,800 square foot rental units on Los Angeles.

I too have been looking to upgrade for the last 6 months in this down market and have found no fire sales - I'm willing to pay 60 cents on the dollar.

 

Florida, you have your choice of several depressed towns w beautiful houses at 0.50 on the $ or less

 

too bad houses are stationary ans you cant buy and move them elsewhere

 

Really?
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You and a huge wall of cash on the sidelines are jostling for position in that queue...