Unprecedented Ferrari bargains on the way...

I agree with Husker's prediction.

The longer the economy stays slow the better for the buyers. At some point based on need or otherwise you get sick of having a car for sale and bite the bullet and just sell it. Overseas bargin hunters will have a small effect but not enough to keep the market from being a buyers market.

 

Do you think 275's will go back to 2-300k$ ?

 

Don`t take it personal, Husker and chill out, buddy. I think Ammoman was just kidding. Your analogy is probably correct and do agree with you too. Ferraris have long enjoyed a special marketplace unlike Mercedes Benz and Porsches where car values drop by 50% or more in their first two years. If what you are predicting is correct, I might pick up some vintage Ferraris that are ridiculously priced. As for you, I think it would be a good time to average down. Hope you are right. I think most Ferrari owners have the car because they love it and enjoy it as a toy. As long as the car is paid for, I do not think one should worry and with the strenght of the Euro, I am sure the Ferrari market will not tank.

 

In my inexperienced opinion, yes. I do think the 275s will probably go to the $100K to $175K range within the next twenty four months.

 

Disclaimer first.....the market is still subject to certain models....there will be ones that fall faster, and ones that go up in value...but in general.....I have to disagree with your statement.

Overseas buyers are actually making a HUGE difference in the prices of some/most luxury cars right now, and driving the market price up beyond what even US buyers will pay. Case in point....I can pick up a BMW X6 for a US customer for less than MSRP, but exporters are paying $5k OVER msrp.

There are some cars that will of course be exempt from this....but as a generality, this is the case right now.

 

I just don't see my 308, which I bought in 1999 for $42000, selling for $20k. The trend has been for nice 308s to slowly go up. So, while the current market sucks, and the car may stall for a bit, I don't see people giving away their 308s. On the other hand, I don't see the 308 being worth $65k as stated in Cavallino.

I can see a car dealer selling a new car for less.

Hey, I would love to see a Mondial t go into the $30k's...I just don't see it. But, some of you have much more experience in the Ferrari market than I do. I'm just an enthusiast who was lucky enough to get one. Unless I hit the lottery, I won't be in a position to buy a 430...at, above, or below MSRP. (truth be told, I would rather have an older Ferrari...but can't afford those either). Heck, I am having trouble affording my 28 year old Jeep at 8mpg!

 

I think you are safe with your 308 . I think that cars that have tripled or more in recent years are the ones at risk here and newer cars, especially the ones that have traded above MSRP.

 

The Enzo is one for instance I can see falling. I'm not sure about how long people will keep paying well over a million dollars for a car thats performance and technology may become dated very soon. When (ever) its successor car becomes able to order, if you put the MSRP somewhere around a good Zonda at $850-870K, who will be paying over a million for a car much less capable?

I can see 355s falling below 70. Your starting to see more and more with around 10,000 miles - give or take - that are in the high 70's. It may just be my imagination, but whenever a new Ferrari comes out, the 355 falls in value. Weren't they around 100K not too long ago? The highest I ever saw Superamericas was in the low 400s and now there are some selling in the low 300s. This must mean something.

How are other manufacturers doing with resale? How are Porsche and Bentley?
Well... Automobile Magazine has it a bit odd : http://www.automobilemag.com/used_cars/11/porsche/carrera_gt/index.html



_J

 

Good point. Prices for really top tier cars should hold up better.

With the California coming out, plus the economy being shaky, I tend to agree with Napolis that the "last year's" models like the F430/599/612 are going to be more attainable without premium.

I see boatloads of 360s/F430s, and a good number of 348/355s/TRs for sale. I don't see an avalanche of great vintage Ferraris looking for garage space right now, but then I'm more clued in to the more recent cars. I haven't seen any declines in 246 or Boxer asking prices.

With regard to Husker's original post, the "bargains" will probably be the 360s, which get close to F430 performance at a $100K discount, and look more or less the same.

Also, I think the 308s and 328s were starting to slowly advance in price -- or at least the very nice ones. It's too soon to tell if that advance was derailed, but knowing that a nice, low-mile 328 ('87, 21K miles) went for $59K last week, I don't think there's a fire sale on these older cars. The guys who own them don't want to sell.

I'm guessing like everyone else, but my guess is that over the next year we'll see 308 QVs at $45K, 328s at $55K, 348tb's at $40K, 355 GTBs at $60K and 360 Modenas at $80K -- these for ~20K-mile cars, no major issues, red or black paint, etc.

If you want one to drive, it could be a great year to buy. If you're looking for an investment, then I'd say log off here and go look for an investment.

 

I think Gus said it best in another thread here at fchat. With so little cars it’s easy to control prices.

I look at it like this, and it is really a topic of the dealerships themselves. At the street level all that matters is how many calls you get, how many walk-ins, test drives, and follow ups you make as a sales person. I for one have not seen my lot traffic or calls go down, in fact they have gone up. My dealership is located in Sioux Falls South Dakota and I only have 2 cars listed for sale on my site. So if my lot traffic has not dropped, then nor have the big dealerships, in big cities. Since the lot numbers have not yet come down, the buyers and seekers are still out there. Of course I am only talking about sales at the dealership level.

I will say that buyers are definitely moving slower now, taking longer to make there buying move, even in the big dollar cars. They are not moving based on the fire sales or the hot cars anymore. If the buyer has to act fast, they move more slowly it seems.

For me I would say slower market yes, fire sale market not yet…

 

I'm not an Enzo fan, but it is a Ferrari. It may fall a bit, but there are few enough of them, and they're owned by some pretty well-heeled guys, so I'd guess the market would remain fairly tight.

Where's Armen?

 

I agree more with this statement - considering that most people buy Ferraris with cash, and not financing. The wealthy are staying wealthy if they're paying attention and acting accordingly. Interest rates are still very low for those with excellent credit ratings. People are still making gobs of money out there, the US has NOT experienced real negative growth, the global economy presents many opportunities for US investors to this day, etc.

 

I agree too. I hope that "cold wind" blows some cold hearted reality into the collector car world, especially at the local level where every redneck thinks his 66 Impala is worth $10,000. More like $1500.

There was a '78 308 for sale locally for $25,000 a few weeks ago. It was sitting in a vacant service station parking lot. Sign in the window said $25,000 FIRM. A few weeks later it was listed in the classified ads for $25,000 FIRM. I don't know if it sold or not, but it didn't seem like people were beating a path to his door even at $25,000.

 

I just cannot purchasing a car above MSRP period. I rather have the guys that need to have these cars first use them and take the left overs. I do like cars, but do not like them where I am going to purchase one that is trading 100% to 300% over MSRP like the Enzo no matter how much liquid excess cash I have. I rather donate the excess money to charity or help out friends and family that are hurting than spend money foolishly like that. I do realize it is the basic laws of supply and demand, but I think it is a sin to be spending money like that. I also do not agree with the crazy money that vintage Ferraris are trading at. Some are mutlimillion dollar cars. To me, it is just another cool car. The bottom line is, it is only still a car. Where do you see the Lussos and Miuras of this world heading to?

 

Those prices could be deceiving. It might require $30K worth of work. I have been there and have done that. Rather spend $50K on a 308 that is cosmetically and mechanically sound.

 

Owner had driven the car regularly so it wasn't a junker. It looked quite nice. My interest waned when there was no confirmation of the condition of belts, tensioner bearings, gas hoses, etc.

 

Plus performance has nothing to do anymore at this stage. Exclusivity, desireability and history do.

 

I think 355s (especially Berlinettas) have already bottomed out.

 

The guy who just paid $2,246,970 for one will be taking quite a hit if you're right.

 

That would be correct. That's why a 250 GTO is about to trade in the the mid 20ies. Alloy, Outside filler cap, 275 GTB 4's? Unless Israel blows up the Iranian nuke plants, which IMO is unlikely although not impossible, I think they won't fall too far from where they are. As for the spyder version (NART) IMO the next one of those will trade north of 6.

 

I just paid $50 over for a new ZR1.
God help me
Eric

 

I will be happy if prices go back to when I first decided to buy some Ferraris. I really passed on some very, very nice cars, because I thought I could afford to move carefully.

If the prices just roll back about 4-5 years, I'll be happy, (because I haven't spent my "saved up Ferrari money" yet)

Jay

 

Well, mine is a 1985 GTS QV with 24k miles...I think QVs have always commanded more money...that's why I said I can't see "my" 308 in the $20s (I also meant other nice QVs). I have seen some rougher '70s 308s in the $20k range, but nice QVs...no...at least I haven't seen any.

At what point (year/make) do Ferraris hold their value and even start going up vs. dropping? 308s seem to hold, and I guess 328s too. Is that the line? If 348s and now 355s are coming down, is the 308/328 the last of the "classics" (perhaps because the styling is from the 1970s)?

 

I think 308's are going to do fine. As an aside my son has a 208GTB Turbo which we like very much. I drove a 308 GTBi 85K miles and really enjoyed every one of them. QV's are very nice.