Unprecedented Ferrari bargains on the way...

Well I can tell you from what I have seen they are not selling 25% off the asking price...Thats why I track the asking price...to see what the diffrence between the asking price and the true selling prices are. I have seen cars offered for one price but bring more than the asking price, due to the pedigree of the car, when more and more buyer become aware of it and strating bidding the car up, I have seen this happen on 360's even as recently as last month! The tracking works both ways...most cars offered sell for $5,000 less there asking price as a whole....

 

Can you be more specific? I think you would have to agree it's not possible that sellers are pricing within <3% of sales price.

Are we talking original price asked or a price that's been lowered 6 times? Do you somehow account for those taken off the market because of inflated pricing? Where do you get the price as the majority of Fcars are advertised "POR?"

 

I looked at at 360 Modena at a dealer. Asking price $129K. Two weeks later listed on Ebay with a buy it now price of $109K. It is still offered on the dealer's website for $129K.

 

I spoke to one also a week and a half ago that would sell the spider for 20K less than the listed asking price. For the 360's, the market is certainly softening up.

 

I looked for an F355 last year and found some decent deals (low-mid 60s), but nobody was particularly in a hurry to sell. More so , I think some might feel a little guiltly at having multiple large ticket luxury items in an era of the slowing economy and high gas prices so it might be possible to catch a good deal now and then. Additionally, cars such as the 360 are relatively mass produced so to an extent they should also experience the regular depreciation that comes with ageing.

 

Well in cases where the price is not advertised, we call and ask...and use the wholesale networks and look at the asking price. I know there are alot of stories out there about a car that was offered or you know of someone who bought back of $20k, but when ask for them to get you the car, call the dealer, or some other method, the car has diappeared...this why we created our database, to see what is really happening out there...We hear guys say all the time they bought a car and they live in such and such state, we look at the database for that state and offten times find the tax paid was more then they say they spent, so they had a trade, or somthing more is going on...the avg. diffrence is around $5,000...thats just what the numbers say...You brought up the example of the F40 for $700k...I know they are not selling $200k off the asking price...If they ware you would see evey other car on there lot go up in value to cover the $200k loss...assuming the dealer bought the cars in $500k range and marked it up 40%, thats the only way they could can take a loss that huge...We have talked about this alot in the 360 section in the "360 prices are going down the toilet" thread...

You asked about cars being taken down because of inflated prices, we have not seen that happening that often, in fact i can not think of any off the top of my head...Most that you see disappear have been sold...Like my 360 Spider I had...That leads me a thought from a couple of months back we started looking at 360's when I had my spider still instock, we went to ebay, and to the dupont registery...On dupont they had around 187 cars offered for sale, once we did our database search and faxed it to my account rep at dupont, the list dropped down to around 108 cars, with 16 being listed more then once, we did the same at ebay and took the list from over 150 cars down to around 87...the dealers ware just keeping sold cars up for the leads...

 

Those of us who collect know it's a common occurance for folks to float their car out there at a very high price and keep it if/when they don't get it.

While I think it's a great idea to create an index, yours, based on methodology, seems like an interesting one but could not be a reliable market read. No way Fcars on average sell $5K below asking, even at the bottom end. Especially in markets like the one we're in now.

 

I was thinking the same thing. Lots of dealers modify their asking prices.

 

All I can say is that when look at a car priced in the market for $189k, it normally sells around $185k somtimes it is more, or less, and somtimes its over the asking price...How would you make the database better, we track everything from time on the lot, to how many views the ad have had, color asking price, tax information, miles, what more could we track?

 

I bet a 430 priced at 189K will sell for 185K, but no WAY will anyone pay that kind of money for a 360. The car I looked at was priced right at 180K and they would take 160K for it. Those that are holding tight on those 170K+ priced 360s will be holding them forever.

 

First, I think you have to compare apples to apples and have your index be for a specified seller type. Cars represented by dealers, cars sold at auction, private party seller. The first 2 categories generally have more realistic selling prices than the third although some dealers seem to have their heads in the dream cloud along with the oft over priced private seller cars. Auctions force some reality with their reserves. A good example of your index not being reliable would be all the cars that did not sell at the recent RM auction in Maranello, an important auction that resets model prices each year. A much larger percent did not sell this year over last and my analysis shows many sold at the low end of their projected range. There was of course one huge anomoly which got all of the attention.

There is no accurate way to track private seller cars. I've had people give me 20% lower prices in one day!

Bottom line, in my opinion a reliable index would ignore asking price, it's meaningless data, and focus on ascertaining sale price through the registration data you see to be privy to.

If you think the average Fcar is selling for $5K under asking, that part of your survey isn't working for you anyway.

 

Jim- thanks for yet another reason not to sleep tonight. The fact that you are a major collector and in the investment business makes your prediction truely terrifying. I wish I was able to write you off as another know nothing opininated yahoo, but als no such luck

 

Thank you! this excatly what we do, we track the auction prices, though, only tha list, ilux, and manheim...we track the car right through the whole selling process on many cars, right from the sale, to the dealer to the new owner...at best guess with new onwer that is...The asking price plays into because I like alot of dealers get close to my asking price, there are alot of best price stores that will not come down at all on the asking price...

 

I agree with Napolis. I hope the downturn is not as severe as it could be. We have borrowed too much from others and have accumulated lots of debt. The house of cards will eventually fall.

 

The cost of our toys will be a minor concern. I'm looking at Euro accounts myself.

 

New 430 Spyder sold by a dealer at a discount in UK:

http://www.ferrarichat.com/forum/showthread.php?t=202532

 

Saw that post. Beautiful car bought on the spur of the moment. May be an anomaly in terms of price but still an interesting development.

 

This, unfortunately SHOULD be the end of the discussion. Problem is, public perception in the wholesale arena (think: Fleabay) dictates that market goes soft. The difference between a $100K Ferrari and a $70K Ferrari can't be determined by most of the people out there, especially not on a computer screen.

I guarantee- no doubt about it- you won't see a flood of Ferraris at the auto auctions- and that is the only time when you see appreciable diminished value on the WHOLESALE level. Ferraris just aren't wholesaled much outside of enthusiast small-time dealers! Retail, on the other hand, looks solid.

People that drive Ferraris can afford them, and they can afford to live without them. Different set of rules than the Toyota and Chevy drivers have. You're talking about 1% of 1% of 1%.

 

its 2008 and theres a world economy and this thing called the exchange rate...maybe the 355's will dip a bit more due to so many produced especially for the beaters but 328's and 308's will continue to go UP in value...they are selling for 20,000 more than they were 6 months ago!!..ive sent 3 cars to europe in the past month and getting calls daily!!of course standing on the sidelines is a bit different than actually getting to play.having enough jingle to get in the game is what it takes today!!....more so in the fall!!

 

Yes, it's a world economy, but that means we're all tied together. The European economic recession is right behind ours. Our Asian friends had to cut back long ago. Perhaps a few good sales will continue to oil money, but those guys are clearly not dummies and they await the bargains. The plunge in the market goes way beyond just the US. Anyone who does not see that the retrenchment will be global will be caught with their pants down. That said, the smart money will be ready with cash to buy up the fire sales.

 

after 25 years of collecting,buying and selling Ferrari's i understand and repect that point of view as im one of THOSE who did get caught with their pants down that first time around ..the bum is still burnin from having too many "old cars" after "the" crash...23 old v12s no one wanted...here we are 17 years or so later and ive found out there a LOT more people out there with the means to buy these cars..way more than you or i can even relate to!im not talking about those many folks looking to finance their new "toy" buying 308's and 328's..yes there are plenty of those for sure but its those ready to write 6 and 7 figure checks for the real deal that im talking about...i was telling a customer today how i wished i had 5 bucks for every person thats stopped by the shop this week asking about his Lusso..he asked me really??...and a few ticks later in stroll these 2 guys in an aston martin vantage asking how much....i get calls and drop-ins everyday like that.....and im sure Mike Sheehan aint flying around this country in his own a plane looking for cars just for the thrill of it!!well knowing mike that may be a part of it!!...but the bottom line is a buyer for a lowly 308 to a 250swb they are out here looking....there are way more asses for the seats than there are seats.........regardless of what the world economy is at the moment or what it will be....

 

Rumor has it Mike has been selling fast and furious.

What I think your analysis is not considering is that there were plenty of people with cash in 1991 too. During recessions, fewer people want to be seen making ostentatious purchases, it's unbecoming. Not a good idea to roll around in the hood with a new Fcar when guys are losing their jobs. People just become more financially conservative for many reasons during recessions. Even if you're wealthy, when you're making less in the market and on investments of all sorts, your spending will reflect it. It will stop the frenzy although folks with money will buy the bargains and store them for better times. One man's opinion.

The driver V12s are dropping fast already, any mystery there?

 

gotta chime in here.

I have noticed an over all decline not only in sales, but the general interest in exotic cars seems to be dieing down. A few years ago exotic sales were brisk and there was plenty of people in the showrooms just dreaming and drooling over the cars. Going to the auto shows, the Ferrari booth would be ten people deep and 100 people wide, just taking in the sight of the machines and snapping photos. Last year, I could walk right up to the Ferrari booth and there would be maybe 50 people standing around looking.

The dream cars now seem to be the Nissan GTR, the EVO, heck throw in the Subaru STI and a few others. These seem to be the cars that are grabbing the headlines lately. I think too many people think exotics are to "snobbish" or "wine and cheese" and don't want to be associated with that crowd.

The other thing is the performance vs dollar value. The GTR is quite the car for the money, in fact its faster then all exotics out there in the 200k range. This is huge!

I think the market is shifting. And its not all because of the state of the economy. I think sports car buyers are getting smarter and are now realizing that you really don't have to spend 200k to get a true performance car anymore. Look at the number of sports car and sport coupe offerings that are on the market. There is now so much to choose from, and for the most part they all have serious performance levels for 1/2 the price of an exotic.

There has been no other time in automobile history like what we have seen in the last few years performance wise. Buyer are getting smarter with their money.

 

In Economics, they call this the "diamond/water" paradox. That is, why is a bucket of diamonds worth far more than a bucket of water? After all, you can't drink diamonds. I don't think you can even eat them.

What's the answer as to why the diamonds are worth more?

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It is called scarcity.

You can find a bucket of water just about anywhere.

When was the last time you saw a bucket of diamonds?

Of course, if you are dying of thirst in the dessert, which bucket is worth more?

Dale