FML: The ONLY Pricing Resource? | FerrariChat

FML: The ONLY Pricing Resource?

Discussion in 'Ferrari Discussion (not model specific)' started by slice, Aug 22, 2008.

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  1. slice

    slice Formula Junior

    Jan 4, 2008
    312
    Connecticut, US
    Hello, All -

    Like most I use the tremendous power of this site for information and research on every possible facet of all things Ferrari.

    That said, when it comes to pricing is the Ferrari Market Letter ("FML") the only game in town? Is FML the definitive authority on pricing or is it yet another siphon on the wallet for those about to purchase?

    Back in the early 1990's when the sports trading card market peaked, everyone waited for the next Becketts monthly to come out, waiting to see what Beckett's said their Mark McGuire card was worth. Is FML a fair comparison?

    Surely each car stands on it's own merit and with everything from color to transmission playing a role in the final price, what when is the value add of FML other than a "ballpark" guide?

    From what I've read on these forums, I'd have to imagine Ferrarichat members are just as knowledgeable, if not more.

    Thoughts appreciated!
     
  2. 134282

    134282 Four Time F1 World Champ
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    I don't know anything about baseball cards - except that my mother told me that when she was a little girl, her brother pissed her off, so she ripped up his Mickey Mantle rookie card.

    But the Ferrari Market Letter is probably the best source for current market value. Cavallino magazine also has an index similar to the FML's, but I prefer to look at the Market Letter. There has been much speculation as to how the FML arrives at some of its Asking Price Index prices, but for the more regularly for-sale cars, the FML is widely regarded as the definitive source.
     
  3. Napolis

    Napolis Three Time F1 World Champ
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    Oct 23, 2002
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    Jim Glickenhaus
    FML's asking price index is an index of prices asked in FLM no more no less.

    Cavallino Market Price listings include cars that no longer exist and have never been sold so I'd disregard that data.

    Sports Car Market is an accurate reporting of recent auction sales so it's pretty informative.

    FCHAT does have a lot of information if you know how to separate the wheat from the chaff.

    Many sales are private and the price paid is not revealed and often reported erroneously. Mike Sheean's reporting of the price payed for 0854 in SCM is an example.
     
  4. tx246

    tx246 F1 Veteran
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    Nov 4, 2003
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    i am a dino guy. if you look at the fml dino gts "asking price", it has dropped BIG time.

    i am biased, but i don't know where one would find a gts at this "asking" price, surely not in the fml. we all know there are many cars that are sold outside of the public advertising, but even at the current price, i know of NO cars at that price. i am not an expert, but i know of many of these cars selling privately.

    i am not questioning the index, but it is more complex than just advertised cars in the fml. perhap gerald would like to respond. i feel pretty confident in saying that a really great 246 gts will have an "ask" and/or sell price well above the $157k price currently showing in the fml.
     
  5. El Wayne

    El Wayne F1 World Champ
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    Aug 1, 2002
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    #5 El Wayne, Aug 22, 2008
    Last edited: Aug 22, 2008
    The price guide that Sports Car Market puts out contains estimated values that are very similar to that of Cavallino because they use the exact same method to obtain their figures - a "survey of selected dealers." The pool of dealers surveyed is much smaller than you might imagine and, at least as far as vintage Ferrari prices are concerned, the two magazines use the exact same source.

    The method used by the Ferrari Market Letter is completely different. Figures are taken from cars advertised in a variety of sources, not just the FML itself. Even then, it's not a straightforward average. Here's how Gerald Roush describes it:

    The "time factor" is really the big issue here. Because he includes past asking prices (going back how far, I do not know), when the market takes a strong surge in one direction or another, the Asking Price Index figures tend to lag well behind.

    Here's a brief comparison of these three value guides as well as Gerald Roush's complete description of his method and reasoning behind the FML Asking Price Index:

    http://www.ferrarichat.com/velostrada/issues/200507/05Ausbrooks-Market_Guide.htm
     
  6. Texas Forever

    Texas Forever Seven Time F1 World Champ
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    #6 Texas Forever, Aug 22, 2008
    Last edited: Aug 22, 2008
    One thing that apparently a lot of people don't know is that Gerald is a professional historian. So when he first put together his API, he was looking for an objective benchmark. It is really too bad that people don't take the time to READ anymore. Because if they did, they would understand that the API is an ASKING PRICE INDEX.

    As most folks know, asking prices ain't necessarily the same as gitting prices. But WTF do I or Gerald know? Like I said, it seems like nobody reads crap anymore. Maybe dis is one of the problems with things now-a-days. Nobody has time to think anymore. Since we live in the time of the sound bite, it seems like the best that anyone can do is just grab your dick and let fly.

    Dale
     
  7. Doug_S

    Doug_S Formula Junior

    Apr 8, 2007
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    http://www.nadaguide.com has Ferrari prices under Classic Cars. It reports a wide range, for example a 2003 360 F Spider is currently low retail 141,900 average 152,700 and high retail 172,600. I expect most of the 360 at dealers would sell at the high retail since they have under 10K miles and are cosmetically flawlwss. Someone reported that Alger has two F1 spiders asking 175,000 and someone else reported the average sale is 5% below dealer asking price I would conclude 166,250 is about the market. By the way, with 360 there is not much difference between 2002-2005.
     
  8. Napolis

    Napolis Three Time F1 World Champ
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    I was referring to the Auction prices reported in SCM for actual cars that have recently sold at public auction as being instructive.

    Now that FML allows adds from dealers without prices IMO it's value is greatly diminished.

    I wonder which dealers that Cavallino consults with has or has ever had a P3 for sale...
     
  9. Bluehinder

    Bluehinder Formula Junior

    Aug 9, 2005
    889
    Colorado
    I don't think FML prices are anywhere close to real. I feel it's a dealer collusion rag where all dealers price their cars within a few thousand of each other. My experience is that real selling prices are quite different.

    As someone above said, it's just good for asking price.

    The historical content is very good and accurate. It's worth reading for that, but FChat is better for real life buy/sell transactions.
     
  10. Texas Forever

    Texas Forever Seven Time F1 World Champ
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    First a retraction - If anybody took away from my post that I have worked on the FML's API, I apologize. This was poor wording on my part. I have never worked on the API, nor is it likely that I ever will.

    Second, I have heard Gerald lecture on the subject numerous times, and I share his frustration that many people fail to understand the English language anymore because the concept is simple. You need two things: (1) a VIN, and (2) an asking price. This explains why Gerald doesn't not let people post ads without an asking price (except for the recent brain fart by FNA).

    Trust me on this because I built a similar database for Maranellos. The amount of apparent fraud by "sellers" of late-model Ferraris on the Internet is stunning. It seems that a number of "dealers" list cars for sell that they don't have the right to sell. Imagine that.

    But once you have a database of real cars with real asking prices, then you have a point of beginning. What you do with it is up to you. I generally apply a 10% to 20% discount to derive a getting price. But your milage may vary.

    Long story short, if you don't like Gerald's API, subcribe to the FML and use this info to start building your own database.

    Dale
     
  11. El Wayne

    El Wayne F1 World Champ
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    The point you're missing is that WE CAN ALL READ AND WE ALL REALIZE THAT THE API IS BASED ON ASKING PRICES. What is frustrating and confusing for most is that common sense tells us that asking prices should reflect higher than actual sale prices. When the market is moving upward, however, the API figures are considerably lower than known selling prices (and much lower than asking prices of cars advertised everywhere). This is the reason why this question comes up all of the time and is what I've tried to explain.
     
  12. jm2

    jm2 F1 World Champ
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    Well said ! I couldn't agree more .
     
  13. wetpet

    wetpet F1 World Champ
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  14. Texas Forever

    Texas Forever Seven Time F1 World Champ
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    Well if the WE includes you and me, I agree. However, based on posts that I have seen over and over and over again griping about how the API is too HIGH! I'm not so sure.

    My point is that if you don't like the FML API, make your own. Just make sure that you use real cars with real VINs.

    Dale
     
  15. El Wayne

    El Wayne F1 World Champ
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    High on cars that are declining in value and low on those that are climbing. This is the result of including asking prices of vehicles that were advertised for sale years ago and is the main cause of confusion when it comes to the API. If he would limit it to a 90 day rolling average of asking prices from various sources, then the API would reflect more current figures as a result.

    I would assume that his rationale is that this might result in too small of a sample in many cases, or even no sample whatsoever if there were no examples of a particular model advertised for sale during a given 90 day period.
     
  16. Bryan

    Bryan Formula 3

    The API is a rolling average of asking prices...aqs Gerald has stated many times. In a rapidly changing market in either direction OR in a market with very few cars, the API will not be accurate, but he never said it would be. This has also been discussed on FCHAT before
     
  17. 410SA

    410SA F1 Veteran

    Nov 2, 2003
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    in a world as specific and varied as Ferrari cars there is no authority on pricing other than the buyer and seller on a specific deal coming to agreement. To Jim's point, rare cars that haven't been involved in a transaction for a very long time have no basis for estimating their current value, other than a done deal between seller and buyer.
    I dabble here and there in esoteric cars and every deal is a brand new world.
     

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