The shock will come after the first of the year when bonuses normally get paid. With the investment banks having to play by the normal banking rules, it's going to get ugly.
By g's do you mean Gallardos? My check book is ready to pick one of those up for 50k. I assume M's are Modena, coupe? I have already seen a lot of those under 100k but they are rough. I have been thinking of selling my 360 spider as I am going to be stuck in NY all winter and not sending the car to Florida this year. So I was thinking of selling the 360 and picking up a different car in the spring. The problem is my 360 is a great car with all the mods on it thatI want and all the records and keys plus its in great condition. As you know it takes time to find a great car so really storing it maybe the best choice although I have limited space in my NY house for cars.
I'm sure you are mistaken as far as 599 is concerned. It will drop to upper $200k range pretty soon but will stabilize in that bracket at least until a replacement or Modificata version appears.
G's yes (Coupes 50 Spyders 70) M's No I was referring to Murcies 360's? Coupes 50 Spyders 70 As for 599's trading in the "high 200's" 24 months from now I really don't think so. As I said I hope I'm wrong.
No **** sherlock. Man, it is gonna be rough in the canyons of Wall Street. The WSJ just ran an article where the fourth daughter got the bad news -- no nose job for you sweetie. Yeah, tuff times. Some of these *********s better be glad they ain't doing the perp walk. Man, a hard rain gonna fall. Couldn't happen to a more deserving group of people. Dale
It is with great fear and trepidation that I take you on. But, if a real 599 (and you know what I'm talking about) breaks $140k in the next two years, I WILL MOVE MOUNTAINS. I'm not kidding. I ain't wealthy. Hell, I got two kids in college. But a 599 is one of the best sports cars on this planet. Yeah, everybody takes about F40s, Daytonas, 512Ms, F50s, but these cars are pink punks next to a 599. At $140k, I'll strip the SOB and take it to the track, Jack. Besides, if 599s drop to $140k, Enzos will be under $400k and falling fast. Dale
You can't compare an Enzo to a 599. A 599 is a production GT an Enzo was a much more limited production Supercar. That said in 24 months I see Enzo's @ 650K. All of my estimates aren't for pristine cars but for high milage cars with a story or two and some wear and tear. As for going to Jail there are those that think there are several accountants who should head that way as well...
I think the point is if this happens the vast majority of us will be horrified and just about the last thing you will be thinking about is a 599 or any Ferrari for that matter. Cash is king and pay of your debt. Andrew
That's the point, the whole point, and nothing but the point. This mess could take years to sort out. I wouldn't bet my kidneys that it couldn't take ten even though I think it will be more like two or three.
Years. Back end costs ugly. More cars going to other markets, I expect. Guess I'll have to drive mine, it's a lousy investment V12's could do OK, as they are not as aspirational, nor as thick on the ground. WFK. It's just a "street car", so none of them are worth jack. They're all coming down, Enzo, F40, 288, GTO, TdF. Jim, I doubt 140 for a beater. 200-250 prob, no buyers at any prices. 600-650 for Enzo about right. Left a cluster of Ducs far behind last w/e. Walking them was worth a couple grand alone. TX is a good place to live with a 599. Trip computer handy, I'm usually too busy to note the speedo. Dale, if you find one, buy it.
True on the production side, but not so true on the numbers side. If you put an Enzo and a 599 on the track, the difference will come down to the driver. Actually, this time it looks like the accountants left the party early, for once. The FASB 157 "mark-to-mark" rule pretty much shut down any accounting tricks. But I agree that it is gonna be a long time gone. Indeed, housing, which is at the bottom of this, is gonna be a VERY long time gone. There is a lot going on with housing (and by implication, commercial real estate) that few have the insight to see. Long story short, housing will not recover until (1) millennials and (2) immigrants start buying homes. Due to the fact that (1) the first millennials are around 25 and mostly still in school and (2) our stupid immigration policy, I predict that it will be at least 10 YEARS before we see an uptick in housing prices. It gets worse, however. When the millennials start buying, they ain't gonna be buying McMansions. So if you own one of these big suburban homes, you better get used to it because you're going be living there for a very long time. Dale
Dale A 599 will crush a 275 GTB/250 SWB/250 Cal Spyder on the track as well. So what. You really think that a 599's $ value will hold up on a percentage basis with an Enzo, 288 GTO, F40, F50? IMO the $ value of all of the above will fall but the idea that on a percentage basis the 599 won't fall much further than any of the one's I mentioned is silly.
But how do you square that with your assertion a few weeks ago that the next bull market has begun? And yes, I know that markets turn before the economy does, but still...
Ok, I am going to swim upstream here and post a couple of thoughts on the whole Ferrari pricing question... First, while we think the 300 to 400 million Americans are the center of the universe, There are a lot of people in the world that want and love Ferraris as much as we do. All of the increase in production at Ferrari is slated to go to the east, China, Russia and all those other emerging economies. In fact several people I have talked to see the US getting fewer and fewer cars as time goes on. So, I don't think there will be the market glut that so many are predicting. Ask any dealer if their allocations have gone up and I think you will find the answer is no. As to the economy yes we will see some belt tightening in the short term. Lots of people who can't REALLY afford a new Ferrari buy one keep it a year and a day sell it and then take to profit to help fund their next car. These same people borrow the money to fund these cars. If you have tried to get a loan lately you know it's tuff. So, it will be slow to 8 to 12 months. Which is very short term for someone who has the wealth to have a 1.2 mill car parked in his collection. I don't think 599 will drop like rocks nor will 430's. Over time they will go down, there are just to many of them out there, not a limited production car by any stretch of the imagination. Scud's and other limited production cars will do much better over time. IMHO, if they make over 500, or its less than 25 years old, Its a car not an investment. Drive it and have some fun in one one of the greatest cars ever made.
Because I think, assuming the bailout passes and I think it will, there is good value in some stocks and over time those stocks and the market will do better from here. I also think the Bubble in Ferrari pricing has not broken hard enough and won't for a while. When Ferrari prices drop 50% from the top as they had with some of the stocks I mentioned I think they too will begin to recover slowly. Don't forget the Stock Market Broke sharply in 1987 but the GTO bubble went to 17 million around two years after that before it crashed down to 3.5 million. Best
So what do you think the market will open with tomorrow? If you were a market maker in, say, XOM, and all your book said was sell, sell, sell. What would you do? I grew up on the water. One old surfer tale is that the only people who die in a rip tide are those who swim against it. Dale
You know Lee. I envy you. Even if the world turns to a bowl of crap tomorrow. You can still take your car out to the Devil's backbone. Enjoy. Dale
