things are getting bad

That's probably a bit elitist, and certainly just being defensive. One does not need to own a Ferrari or have obtained financing to have a very very strong understanding (as good as anyone) of the market. For example, car salesman who sell Ferraris certainly understand the market and probably don't make enough money to own one. But one does not even need to be in the business, the information is quite apparent and readily available. It's not secret information available only to insiders.

 

LAst week I was at a show, looked at a 430 spider 07 2300 miles....250K

 

I will go ahead and say there is MISinformation on the used prices on these cars.. the only truth here is that the economy is not so hot and cars wont move.. but dealers will not take a major bath on every car.. they will hold them and wait for buyers.. Right now.. maybe in the future.. things will get considerably worse..

but remember things will get better again.. prices will rise.. The only point anyone here seems to be making is that the horrid economic state is affecting the price of goods.. which is pretty obvious.. and I do not know why it takes 4 pages in a forum to discuss that..

 

Hold them? You mean pay the floor plan and wait? For Days, Weeks, Months, Years? What will happen when the trucks arrive with new merchandise and the floor plans are full? I was told by a source I believe that last week a high line dealer turned away a truck bearing new cars because his floor plan was fully committed.

Hey Chris hasn't dropped the price of cars he's offering at his dealership since July.

"Originally Posted by SDChris
No Jim, I answered you directly..I am still offering MY07-MY08's in the $265-$275k range, the same as they ware for me in July!"

Maybe every dealer will act like him.

Personally I don't think so.

 

Respectfully and tragically, I fear this is only the beginning. All signs point to deflation with a possibility of stagflation. Low employment and productivity, combined with too much money. Our printing presses work over time, and foriegn debt threatens our freedoms. Too many, maybe even a majority, have lived an unearned lifestyle this past decade or longer, entirely based on their ability to manipulate credit.

Well, boys and girls, the banks are closed and the credit cards being recalled. With 12 million forclosures, their are no assets (at least any we can value against a loan), not to mention something no one has dealt with to date, the derivatives market, so we will be living on the cash we have for years to come. This means a lower standard of living. The irony is our country and many of us have lived the highest standard of living founded on borrowing for those living the lowest. The worm just turned. Adding to our collective misery will be the election of Obama and a Democratic Congress, which we know from the Carter era, which does not bode well for Ferrari purchases. Best

 

I guarantee that this is only the beginning. A long, global recession isn't going to do much good for any luxury industry.

 

Maybe they will Jim, I am seeing that happen...

But over the last few yeasr I have seen that it is cheaper for me to hold a car, then take a huge bath by dropping the price $30k..I have to think about repalcing the car so I can not sell it for less then i own it for or that is loss that i can not replace...

 

How do some here think that price for the common Ferraris ( 430/360 ) will rise again ? I dont see them ever going back to 200k+. There are simply too many of them and once the economy will be back on its feet, they will be just one out of 30.000 made that are much slower than the current model.

 

No more likely than TR's trading over 200K or the 350K they reached at the peak. 350 to 50 as I said -85% from the peak.

 

It from 1929 until 1954 for the stock market to reach equivilant numbers. This means 2030. A in depth read of the Depression migh help those interested to gain a better perspective of what some of us talking about.

I only point this out because I do not see anything changing for a decade or more. We need to do something most have never had to do, postpone gratification and live on cash in hand. I suggest we start realigning our time horizons from months, maybe even years, to decades. I submit our lives will not be the same going forward. We all are saved by our short term memories (psychologists tell we stay adjusted by basically selecting memories in order to maintain levels of endorphin and dopamine). which may not be the best thing at the moment. Our short sightedness and selfishness threatens our lives. Good luck. Best

 

I would just like to point out that my Dad who was actually on Wall Street in 1929 and is still active in the business, on Fox News last night predicted that we are very close to, if not at, the bottom and the long road back has begun.

Best

 

That is good to know . Lots of opportunites in the next few months then !

 

If we are at the bottom and it only took a month to get here, surely the recovery won't take "decades", right? How long until the prices of these cars hits bottom then? I can't see them lagging that far behind, and the drop in value isn't close to the percentages being mentioned in this and many other threads. Could this end up not as bad as most are saying? Appreciate your perspective...

 

Andrew you're way to young to be worrying about money. You should be worrying about *****.

 

Once again in 89 a 250 GTO sold for 17 million. A few years later the same car sold for 3.5 million. It took 18 years to get back to 17 million. My serious guess? Things will be tough for five years but some things will recover before other things. Production sports cars will never sell at the stupid bubble levels they once did. Never. People will always collect things and great rare things will always have value but the there is and will always be a big difference between a 599/430/430S and this one.
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Haha James you crack me up but im not that young anymore !

 

An interesting perspective:

http://greatdepression2006.blogspot.com/2006/09/famous-quotes-from-past.html

In reality, nobody really knows. We used to call WW1 the GREAT war.....

 

Perhaps our love of these machines is blinding many of us... If 550's are trading deep into the five figure range - & they are insofar as they are trading at all - what exactly in your experience leads you to believe that 599's won't travel that same road? Sure, they're newer & better cars, much as the next model will be newer & better, & so on & so on... Wait until 599's get some miles on them & need $10K services - they'll be fire-sale material just like all the production cars are when they become yesterday's hot ticket. I grew up around the Ferrari community in the 60's. The dealers were LARGELY semi-hobbyists - they generally owned a Buick or Mercury franchise & took on Ferrari as a way to have fun & spend some of the money they were generating pushing the everyday iron. The only people making money on the cars were the mechanics & used car dealers. The buyers accepted the fact that their toy was going to cost them & they could afford it. It was only in the late '80's that the concept of production cars as investments came into existence. Too much money chasing too little inventory created a speculator's dream. Too many otherwise level headed individuals bought into the notion that (does this sound familiar?) these mass-produced automobiles were bulletproof rocket rides to riches. The "correction" of the early '90's was a wake-up call for THAT generation of geniuses - I'll never forget my friend who refused $950K in January '90 for his 330 GTS only to wind up with $275K eight months later... But luckily, we have a NEW generation of financial seers who felt that M.S.R.P. on a new, reproducible, series production automobile just doesn't represent enough profit for the dealer & manufacturer - & since these things do nothing but appreciate forever why not buy two?
Now don't take me wrong - I love Ferrari's, think they are amazing examples of post-war modern industrial art, & have owned & enjoyed many of them - but I love them for what they DO, rather than what they ARE. I think this is a critical point. The concept of car as investment precludes the actual use & enjoyment of these magnificent machines. I have a problem accepting the owner of, say, a 430 - one of the great performance autos in history - who dares not actually drive it for fear of putting too many miles on it & damaging its future value. Or the prospective purchaser of a 599 who's willing to pay a premium for a red car 'cause it'll be worth more down the road. Get real! We are swiftly going to separate the wheat from the chaff in this market & if you can't afford to play you should save yourself the heartache (& wallet ache) & get out NOW, because this isn't going to get better soon. Those of you who scoff at the notion of a 430 Spider for $170K - I hope you don't have a leased '07 in your garage that you owe $220K on because I don't think there are any buyers TODAY at $150K!!! If you ARE a buyer at that number - keep a spot open in your garage, you won't have to wait long - just don't expect to make a profit from that price!
I know I'm gonna get flamed for this, but this is a message from the real world. If you disagree with me, I suggest you re-read this in 6 months! Yr fthfl svt, Jim

 

Totally True.

 

While we may perhaps be at the bottom of the stock market, we are not at the bottom for these expensive toys. The DOW could be below 10k for years. What do you think that will do to prices of these cars?

Look how long it took for partial recovery of the classic car crash of 1989. Measured in constant dollars, the recent boom never surpassed the earlier boom of the late 1980s. The $17 million GTO in 1989 is equivalent to $28.5 million today. http://www.minneapolisfed.org/index.cfm

 

Bravo!!! Finally, someone with some common sense.

 

If only, if only, people would understand this point, Ferraris are luxury goods. They are damn good luxury goods. But they never have been, are not, and never will be investments. Any decent car guy can rationalize any decision to buy. But, late at night, it is never a good idea to believe your own lies.

Dale

 

your dad was around in 1929 on Wall street and still around today 80 years later? How old was he then and how old is he now?

 

+1M..after the money's gone, that's all there IS!!!!!!
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He was a messenger in '29.....older now....