F40 prices sinking fast? Asking below $499k and no takers

Ciao Maestro. My point exactly...

 

Ross:

In all honesty, I think what you have here is an F40 with an identity crises. It is not a race car. It is not a street car. All dressed up and no place to go. This will affect value now & in the future.

Jeez, Id hate to be the one to have to put this car back to the way it should be. Then again, if I wanted to race an F40 on the track, the real thing (F40LM/GT/GTE) is the way to go and not only will it be a better investment at all times and eligible in the Ferrari Historics, it will leave this one for dead on the track.

 

Totally agree. One thing the location of the shop makes me think the parts are probably genuine.

 

Your prerogative. But actually, its worth remembering that speculation is a pastime which has little meaning, or bearing upon reality.

I prefer to use my time a little more productively.

 

The problem, IMO is the roll bar fitment.

Doing that to a car here IS illegal in a street car and highly dangerous to drive in the street without a helment.

So the Swiss are correct to classify it that way IMO....

If you could ditch that and get lights and a horn, we can probably get you tags, in Texas!! LOL!
My Service Station guys down at the corner gas station are great.

They'll run it thru as a 308GTB......

 

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LOL! Doesn't seem like it!

 

Appearances can be deceptive...

 

First, I have to say that I like the discussion/speculation, etc. The power of a network is that ideas are shared. Ideas, no matter how far fetched are good at stimulating thought--and some would say that they provoke thought.

Second, regarding item #2 above, it is my opinion that the scenario this time will be worse than 1989-1990.

Third, one can't compare a 20+ year old car (even if it is a Supercar) to a new car coming off the line. I agree that I would beg, borrow and steal $250K to buy an F-40, but would pass on the California at $200K. But that is not a valid comparison.

Fourth, there will be "seller circumstances" causing certain cars to tank in price. That information drags all other cars down. It will happen.

Just think about oil. A few months ago, it was over $140 per barrel. Today, it is $46. Hell Citibank . . . tanked in 3 days, then doubled in a day.

You think super cars are rare--try finding a buyer for your Citibank stock a week ago.

 

Youre making a mistake comparing F40s to stocks or commodities... they aren't, and the people who own them don't regard them as such. It isnt even a valid comparison.

Talk to someone who owns one right now.

F40s have a raw visceral emotion attachment, and many are a keepsake to be bequeathed to children. I would venture to say that in these difficult times many owners have in fact hardened their holding position by viewing the F40 as one of the few things they own that they don't have to rationalize. They are far from an annoying stock that has now become a non-performer which is then cut loose with a single unemotional call to the broker with the order of "sell". F40s are very different indeed, and more real enthusiasts who purchased them outright own them than in 1990.

For all your thoughts though, I will write another check, this time for $250,000. As soon as Im able to exchange that for an F40 straight across (no begging, borrowing or stealing) I will post it here!

Cheers.

 

They are cars, not Picassos. And they are mass produced cars, at that (for a supercar). They ain't McLaren F1's, nor are they even F50's or Enzo's.

I have never known a car salesman (even if they prefer to call themselves a matchmaker) to acknowledge a declining market. I have always known a car salesman to talk about how the market really isn't down, even when it clearly is, and to come up with various reasons that they will sell you regarding why a particular car sold low... and the reason you're being sold on will never ever be "the whole market is just down".

Ross nailed it. There is a range of cars from good to bad and a perfect low-mile car in stock condition could easily represent the high watermark. I don't think it even needs to be said that there is a variance in conditions and consequently a variance in values. But I think it would be myopic at best to suggest that the mean is not moving lower. Anyone with eyes can see it - and it affects all cars.

Of course, it should be expected that sellers are often the last ones to acknowledge a downtrending market, and a dealer will never acknowledge it. Every car they represent could go unsold at auction and they still wouldn't admit that the market is falling.

My educated guess is that we are not out of the woods yet, economically speaking, and as more time passes, so will prices come down - including on F40's. When a dealer tells you that prices aren't "really" down, because the cars are heirlooms (all 1300+ of them) and are being held by true enthusiasts to be bequeathed upon their offspring, well, that's when you know they are reaching deep in their bag of tricks

(slightly in jest)

 

Mike: Everybody agrees the market is down and I dont know a single dealer who doesnt agree. I think youre laying it on a bit thick there.
Also I never suggested "all 1300" F40s will not be sold, but rather that some wont, and many are cherished.

 

My assumption is that you have not driven an F40. You're correct that it isn't an McLaren F1. However, the McLaren F1 isn't an F40 either. I think everyone agrees that the market is soft. No one is saying that it isn't. Some argue that the F40s will "tank" below 200K. Many, including me, say that it's highly unlikely that it will. As for the feeling from being behind the wheel of an F40, it is really hard to describe. No modern cars, supercars included, will provide that visceral emotion that an F40 provides. As previouisly stated, and based on the recent posts by Joe, it appears that he and I will be ready for a showdown to see who will be able to acquire as many good, solid F40s at the magical mark of USD180...

 

If you want to see something really scary look at November sales figures YOY for Aston, Porsche, Lotus, Ferrari, Lamborghini, and Maserati. They're all double digit. Some start with a -4 even thought they have more models in the Market Place this year.

Like car keys falling out of a Lear Jet.

Some here will claim this data has nothing to do with what will happen to F 40 Sales.

I'm reminded of the Dark Ages. The Dark Ages weren't called the Dark Ages because no light came out of them. They were called The Dark Ages because no light was seen by those living in them. During the Dark Ages there was an incredible summer of meteor showers that lit up the sky for nights on end. People accross the world memoralized these meteor showers in many records and works of art except in the countries that underwent The Dark Ages.

"It's Just A Scratch!" "It will grow back"

 

Eddie

Having driven both I agree that you can't compare them. Unlike the F 40 or any Ferrari for that matter since 1965 the Macca has finished 1,2,3,5 at the 24 of Le Mans. Buyers recognise this and at RM London recently at the auction where an F 50 sold for 440K$ and a 288 NS's for less, the one Joe assures us has nothing to do with the value of 288's and points out how he sold once since for much more, the Macca sold for an all time record.

Mosey on down to the Lambo section. Look at the 6.0 threads. "They'll never sell for less than 150K! They're so rare all owned by collectors! I'll buy all of them for 150K!" A short time the dealer who made that statement offered one for less than 150K.

Head up to the Vintage Section. Note how: "The 365BBi's that didn't sell in London this Monday weren't any good" "Wait until
the good ones are offered at the December Auctions" I disagree with Mike on one thing. In Vintage one broker clearly says the market has changed: "Big Time" and urges sellers to get real.

We Love what we Love. We all see what we want to see. We all don't see what we want to see until it's impossible to ignore it any more.

Those that bought cars because they love them never have a problem. Prices go up. Prices go down.

 

HERE IS THE POINT . . . most of the posts on this thread suggest that the distressed sale will be rare and that it will not drag down prices. WRONG! WRONG! WRONG! (Not you SRT Mike).

In a small sample, large deviations from the mean will have DRAMATIC consequences to the whole. If I have 30 people in a room, and we average their income, the addition of another person from our company will not have a dramatic overall effect on the average. However, if Lloyd Blankfein walks into the room (he made $68 million last year), the average is skewed trememdously.

If only 20 F-40s trade this year, and even only two of them are a distress sale, it will kill the market.

Think about this, if a beautiful and perfect 2001 550 trades at $199K this year, it will have very little impact on the general market, because there are lots of 550s out there. But if 10% of all F-40 trades are distressed, then the impact is HUGE.

My posts on the economy are well documented. In advance, I warned of the collapse of home prices, consumer spending, commercial real estate, the subprime mess, and a trillion dollars of bank losses (boy was I low on that one). I admit I liked Goldman Sachs, but I was smart enough to get out at $178.

What is missing is this . . . I know many people who built their wealth on DEBT. I have posted about a guy who lost tens of millions when his Wachovia stock (on margin) sank. He lost boats, houses, an F-40, and his wife (and girlfriend). In the house across the street from me, the guy has a $2.5 million house, leveraged to 110%. I am not joking about this . . . his Jaguar was repossessed, and his Chevy Tahoe was repossessed. He now drives 2 hundais--living in a $2.5 million house!!

As this occurs, the value of these cars will come down--and my educated guess is that we are only witnessing the tip of the proverbial iceberg.

If you don't believe me, ask yourself this question . . . what is our exit strategy on this bailout? Who bails out the US taxpayer when he has bailed out everyone else?

THAT'S A SCARY QUESTION TO ASK.

 

Very Good Post. As a real data point can you post the price he got for his F 40 and it's condition?

As an aside Girlfriends and a Wife are never a good idea...

 

we're not on wallstreet. these are beloved cars. if you dont love them. if you cant stomach taking a hit on them, you shouldnt be involved in them at all. ZERO. you buy an f40 at 500k, you better darn well be prepared for a $200k hickie if infact our market suffers for another 2,3 years or worse.

someone asked about hard data. whats going on out there. i might be able to speak to that. i just bot a pristine, near-perfect F40. low miles, all original, no mods. a to z buttoned up wrapper. in the process i probably spoke to and saw about 8 different owners/dealers. I consulted with lots of people with lots of knowledge and info on the matter. i cant claim to have any immense konwledge of the f40 market greater than other markets. my background is in american muscle and pcars.
but i have some small experiences as a trader.

i gave a long and hard thought to whether they would be lower, and knowing full well that they could retreat a good bit more.....i came to the determination that my buy in point was just fine and would cayuse me no lost sleep. same as in the pcar market, guys either have a cost basis that is equal to or higher than the current market... in the case of dealers, i think we all kow that car dealers can be the last folk to take lumps and losses. they have the belief, maybe rightly so, that they can flip flop trade their way out of a hole. or they are just bad traders and go bankrupt on hammered inventory. either way, at such low levels, these things dont trade like commodities, the volumes and # of ticks are not great enough to call them liquid...so there may infact be one or two or a few more distressed sales that cause me to go "dang, wish i had bot that for 40k less". heck, i could have had a million shares of yahoo at 5.00 share before it ran upt to 150/share. i didnt. woulda coulda shoulda....

i guess my point is...i think its great to hear so many guys talk about the markets..some optimistics, some pessimistic. sure you gotta figure out what you think things will go. but ultimatley its a car. you cant time a bottom like you could with stocks, as when you think you've bottomed, everone else will know it and you cant push your enter key and own it at the offer. that offer price will kill the bottom monies you saved. its a process.

what we ought to be guaging is how awsome the cars are relative to the wonderful savings we can all realize. how great it is that the prices came in so nicely, so much so. heck, the car i just bought would have brought 150k more about 4 months ago. i got the same car for about 30% less. but mainly, i got the car i wanted. i could have waited. something else would have popped up. maybe i'd have been smarter to wait for the economy and all businesses to recover, and then felt more comfy paying up. that would have been smart. when it comes to F40s, we're all a bit dumber than normal...like talking jibberish in the face of some hot chick on the beach..."uh, my name? its uh...uh....what did you say?" <drool>

these aint stocks guys. they dont have the same upside no way. they have the same downside. they dont have liquidity. and you have to pry them from anxiety-ridden sellers.

if youwant to play the markets, go find some equities. if you want to have the time of your life, before you move on from this planet, get an F40 when the price is comfortable for you. they go to $200k, i'm one of the first guys in line looking to fill the garage with multiples.

 

I think I posted the story, but I will summarize here . . .

The guy sold his company to Wachovia and took stock (he wanted to defer his taxes). Wachovia stock was up there--high 80s and low 90s. He then margined his stock--big boat, beach house, a few cars, summer in Portugal, furs, watches, etc. Stock falls, so he sells some to meet margin calls. Now, taxes are a problem. Starts borrowing against the cars, the beach house. Stock tanks; he is bankrupt. Calls me about the F-40 and wants a big number (about $500K). I put him in touch with my car guy--who says it is worth less than $400K, maybe $350K. In the meantime, he tells me he sold it for "just above $400K." I didn't verify, but took his word for it. He lived outside Charlotte but did not want to go to Foreign Cars Italia, because he was embarrassed.

 

There by the grace of God...

Thanks.

 

Sounds like you got something that gives you great pleasure and that is all that matters. This thread is simply information and opinion that should one be in the market for an F 40 one may find helpfull or not.

Drive On!

 

Would you be willing to tell us the price and condition of your car? Since you just 'bot' it, it would serve to give us a good handle on the market. Also, if it is as pristine as you say, would you be willing to post some pictures of the front end--so we can look for paint chips to see the condition (and whether the paint faded)? Also, if you could highlight the area around the exhaust to see how the paint is holding up. Also the interior--how is is holding up on a 20+ year old car? What was your mileage?

 

i was offered that car through another fchatter here. since i am not looking for a usa based car i declined, but the chatter did confirm the sale at around 400k. fwiw.

 

So we now have a two-sourced verified sale confirming the OP thread topic. Can we agree the subject is closed?

 

I remember my first 'real' job making $20,000 a year. At the time, my boss made $50,000 a year. I thought "boy, if I made $50,000 a year, I'd be RICH and I'd have a brand new BMW!". When I made $50k, a year, it suddenly didn't seem like so much money anymore.

I think people always assume that people in income brackets above them are 'all set' and aren't affected by things like the current economy. I've learned that such is really not true. I know people who live a debt-free middle class life and have enough $$ in the bank to survive for years with no problem. And I know a few guys who drive high 6-figure cars around who are highly leveraged. And my experience has been that their taste in cars doesn't stop short of "real enthusiast cars" like F40's. Rather, the F40 is perhaps the most attainable of the supercars, based on production volume and price.

When you see F50's and Enzo's dropping in value like "keys from a learjet", you know that F40's are at least as affected.

I agree with you wholeheartedly Jim. I guess in the end, we're all just speculating here and nobody knows what the future holds (not with any certainty at least), but I too have noted the disbelief by many at what car prices are. It's one thing to be on the sidelines as an observer (whether due to inability to pay for such a car, lack of desire to buy one, or due to currently owning one that you're afraid to sell or don't need to sell)... and it's another thing entirely to be in the market. From what I know from folks who are really in the market - as in buying cars or selling cars - it's nasty out there.

And only gonna get worse.