Falling Watch Prices?

They are at 9kish now and not burning up the sales market.

-dsd

 

Don't know much about purses but anyone who thinks these things aren't dropping in value is kidding themselves. Ferrari 360's for $50k? Yep, we will see that I am sure. Not tomorrow but at some point. As for the Daytonas, the problem with that price point is that these watches aren't really high end watches. They are sort of entry-level high end and that is the market that is getting hit the hardest.

The people who were interested in shelling out the $$ for a Sky-moon probably still have the means to buy the watch and then some... but I am absolutely sure that the # of people who are buyers for Daytonas has plummeted. And the number of pieces on the market rises sharply, because the buyers for these watches are people who are losing their jobs and are worried about the economy.

It wasn't that long ago that SS Daytonas were, what, $12-13k? Market today is more like $8-9k. Maybe a 25-35% drop over the past several months? If things keep going as they have been, the gap to $5k ain't as big as it may seem.


I'm just saying that investing in a rolex and expecting it to appreciate is not a wise move. I think the only watches that can be counted on to appreciate occupy a price strata several levels above most Rolex's. Just my .02

 

Watches make horrible investments. The perceived "appreciation" of Rolexes generally doesn't even keep up with the rate of inflation. With that said, Rolex has some of the best resale values in its price bracket.

 

Totally agree, Rolex watches are NOT an investments they just hold thier re-sale value very well. A 360 for $50K, I guess I should expect to see my 355 be worth $30K. I don't think the sky is falling. The majority of Americans are "feel good, need it NOW kind of people" and that for that reason I don't think this current state of the economy will continue for several years. Rolexs and Ferraris are luxury items and there will ALWAYS be buyers for these products. There are still plenty of folks out there with lots of $$ and are just cautious now. Most people with $$ are now buying real estate becuase that too will turn.

No doubt SRT Mike, this discussion will be worth re-visiting one year from now.....mark your calendar.

 

I'm not sure you will really see a $5K Daytona, unless its the tutone model, that people have had little interest in over the years anyway. That being said, 8-9K is probably a reasonable zone for SS Daytonas. There really isn't much out there that competes with them from the higher end brands, since those are generally much more expensive to purchase or service. Also in a lower price range there isn't much quality wise to compete a Daytona, most companies in a lower price range are making chronographs offering a watch case with a somewhat modified ETA/7750. Maybe the only 2 brands that are competitive quality wise or maybe a even a bit higher are Zenith and Glashutte Original , but neither have the audience (due to lack of brand name recognition amongst non-watch people) and both of those tend to depreciate quickly. One should never buy a watch specifically as an investment...whether its a Rolex, AP, Patek, Lange or anything else. Even when you get into the high end brands you should not confuse the appreciation seen in vintage pieces as proof that a modern watch will appreciate. Modern pieces are produced in much greater numbers than the vintage items, only a handful of modern pieces will appreciate in value once supply catches up with demand. Even relatively low production high end watches tend to depreciate because unless there is a severe shortage, most buyers would rather have new piece rather than a modern pre-owned piece so there has to be something to entice a would be buyer to purchase a preowned high end watch (such as a lower price). Sure there are exceptions to this, but in general many if not most current APs, Breguets, Vacherons, Langes, and even Pateks are subject to some depreciation.

Best regards,
Dino

 

You really need to buy the 'wrong' Patek at thw 'wrong' price to lose money IMHO. Have done VERY well each and everytime.

 

Overall it depends on the Patek, a 5070 or 5970 sure no depreciation those are very high demand watches. They are also considerably more than a Daytona.

Get into Patek's more basic watches, like Calatravas and Annual Calendars which pretty common and they have some depreciation, at least in the short run. Those models tend to retain value based on price increases much like a modern Rolex.

Some Patek's value seems a bit overinflated and their price increases have gotten to be rediculous. A Golden Elipse had an MSRP of $17,000 a year and a half ago, now its around $23,000. Its a nice watch but basic time only piece thats way over priced.

5 years ago almost any Patek, except for a 5070, could be bought at a very good discount from an AD. But with Patek going to auctions and driving up the prices of some of their vintage watches, people have gotten crazy for the brand. I just wonder how long it will last. Recently I've heard that watches like the once hard to get 5712 SS Nautilus (which used to sell at well over its list price) are becoming more readily available and some people have been offered them at list price. Given some time we might start seeing discounts on this model again...what do you think that will do for people that bought them at list price or more.

Best regards,
Dino

 

I've recently been offered numerous examples of the 5712 at a reasonable discount.

The 5960 that I sold last summer for 82 can now be had for 55.

 

Hi Jamie,

Thanks for the info. I had not personally shopped for a 5712, but had heard that softening watch prices were affecting all brands, including Patek. Sounds like you sold your 5960 at the right time!

Best regards,
Dino

 

I both agree and disagree. Watches and Cars are not investments, sometimes you get lucky

The Daytona has a lot of competitors in quality and price. The Omega Speedmaster is every bit a great watch and chrono that the Daytona is at 1/3rd the price. The Breguet Type XX/XXI is an amazing watch and cheaper than the Daytona (with a low resale of $3500 - $5500). Honestly, I prefer the Speedy Pro over the Omega, that is why I have one and not a Daytona.

Long term, I think the standard SS Daytona is worth about $7500 - 9000 given its market position. Now a true manual wind Newman dial...

Best,
dsd

 

In regards to a Rolex SS Daytona selling for $5k, I also doubt it highly because Rolex has a habit of raising prices every year sometimes twice so a SS Submariner will have an list price close to or over $6K in the near future. I don't know of any car guy who would rather pay more for a new SS Sub over a pre-owned SS Daytona.

But it would be nice if a Patek 3970 would return to pre 2003 prices now that I can pick one up.

 

Agreed. The Annual in RG was $12.5 (actual cost), sold for higher. Again, it is which model you get and the price you pay. If you do not know the market... i passed on a skelton for $15k to $18k a few times, bad move on my part of course. The WorldTime (newish version, previous to the very newest one) was $14k to get... nice move there

Wanted to get the wife/me the new female annual with moonphase/diamonds. $22k at Pateks Paris location, we passed as it was yellow gold and prefer rose yet at that time RG was not offered. Bummer, coulda done well there too.

Got the below for a song, as regret letting go of the Patek Haorrds special for 3x the price (only made 35 of them) and this is kinda like that yet with the 1.7 movement versus the less rare 2.15mm thick manual wind as in the Harrods.

Guess bottom line is know the industry you are <cough> investing <cough> in and get a good deal up front. Again, have NEVER gone wrong with a Patek... ever.
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That is exactly right, Rolex raises their MSRP prices once or twice a year. I think they will only do that ONCE this year becuase of the economy. None the less they are going to raise prices sometime this year. Rolex will continue to sell watches before and after price increases. They obvioulsy understand the global market place better than most.

 

Sorry but I'll probably agree and disagree also.

I don't consider 3 or 4 options to a Daytona a lot of competitors in quality and price.

The Breguet Type XX/XXI is nice, and something that I clearly overlooked. But I have to admit when I think Breguet, I'd generally think of them for fine dress watches with beautifully guilloched dials. They make very nice sport watches, but then again Rolex makes their Cellini line, which is nice but when you say Rolex most people probably do not think of Rolex for a true dress watch.

As for the Omega Speedmaster, I like the Speedmaster Professional, its a great watch with has very nice Lemania based movement. Its probably the only Omega I've considered in recent times (years ago I had a Seamaster). But I never think of it as a direct competitor to the Daytona, the Speedy Pro is a manual wind the Daytona is an automatic with a 72 hour power reserve. In addition, unless I am mistaken its only water resistant to about 30m. When my friend bought his Speedy Pro the AD told him although it was water resistant, its only minimally water resistant and should not be worn swimming. My 1st SS Daytona could take anything I dished out and I beat the hell out of it for 5 years.

Personally, I like the Speedy Pro its a classic watch with a great movement. I also think Omega has done great work with their co-axial movement watches. Still IMHO Omega has kind of watered down the identity of many of its watches. They make so many special editions that they do not seem special at all. They seem to release a limited edition "moonwatch" almost every time we reach another 5 year mark from landing on the moon. In addition, Omega has already made enough "007 watches", and I was surprised the first time I saw the Michael Schumacher Edition Speedmaster, which looks like a copy of the old manual wind "Paul Newman dial" Daytonas. To me, copying another brand really detracts from the automatic Speedys.

I do have to admit I saw a beautiful rose gold Speedy Pro a few months ago, but with an MSRP of around $13K+ it got me to thinking about other brands.

Just my 2 cents.
Best regards,
Dino

 

just to touch on this subject i am in the market for a new watch and after looking at 08 models and then the 09's the prices have raised. it seems everything in rolex is going up as well as breitling. it seems there was a small increase in omega as well. i didnt really get into the prices on any of the other watches i was looking at but i asked the dealer why and what she told be was because the economy is down so they need to make up for the portion of the market they are loosing. thats my 2 cents for what its worth