Australia is finished economically! | FerrariChat

Australia is finished economically!

Discussion in 'Australia' started by Arvin Grajau, Feb 18, 2010.

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  1. Arvin Grajau

    Arvin Grajau Seven Time F1 World Champ
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    #1 Arvin Grajau, Feb 18, 2010
    Wow went to this lecture tonight given by a ex senior bank economist.
    Point form.
    1.Our foreign debt is unmanagable,expects payment default within 5 years,due to a decrease in federal revenue.
    2.Ageing population and its costs on society.
    3.The question of China crunching us on our raw materials cost/price.
    4.failure over the next 2 years of major public companies
    5.state debt.
    6.unemployment
    7.Over priced property and share market.
    8.A over educated society with no work for these people.
    9.drought.
    10.world depression within 18 months
    11.Collapse of world financial markets
    12.America and her debt.
    13.within 4 years 60% of Australians will be on government welfare or not adding to the collection of tax.
    I came home shaking and glad I'm no longer in business.
    His final word of advice was to cash up with various forms of currency/gold.
     
  2. Arvin Grajau

    Arvin Grajau Seven Time F1 World Champ
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    #2 Arvin Grajau, Feb 18, 2010
    He also spoke about personal wealth/assets.
    within 2 years half your asset worth,that will be its value.
    for anyone with 50% of debt that means they will be worth zero.
    spoke about borrowings and how the lenders willbe cutting back to 70%lvr on residental property and 50% on commercial.
    That unsecured loans will be no longer available within a year and the banks are as scared as hell about clients with no asset worth with credit card debt.
    I asked about motor vehicle finance ,his comment was that within 2 years there will be no local industry and that the best one could hope for on borrowings on a car would be 50% deposit max loan time 3 years and forget residual/balloon payments (some new variation to the tax/depression laws on motor cars.
    That the new credit laws will wipe out borrowing in this country as we know it,days of easy credit gone forever.
    On Tax felt that company tax will need to rise to about 50% ,capital gains tax on your home will come in within 18 months and that personal tax rates will climb across the boarded to about 35 cents in the $.
    main challenge the Government is broke and not enough indirect/direct income is comming in.
     
  3. Robdownunder

    Robdownunder Formula Junior

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    #3 Robdownunder, Feb 18, 2010
    With such negative vibes like that, no wonder the guy is an ex.
     
  4. Arvin Grajau

    Arvin Grajau Seven Time F1 World Champ
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    #4 Arvin Grajau, Feb 18, 2010
    he retired at just on 50 years of age.EX by his own choice.
     
  5. kongman

    kongman F1 Rookie

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    #5 kongman, Feb 18, 2010
    he worked for a bank , therefore is guilty of 99% of what he just said ..........i blame him..:):)
     
  6. ACP

    ACP Formula Junior

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    #6 ACP, Feb 18, 2010
    I had the same lecture in 1990. It turned out to be slightly inaccurate.
     
  7. Schmick325

    Schmick325 Formula Junior

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    #7 Schmick325, Feb 18, 2010
    What's he do now, run his own private Hedge fund? Must be short on alot of assets!
     
  8. Arvin Grajau

    Arvin Grajau Seven Time F1 World Champ
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    #8 Arvin Grajau, Feb 18, 2010
    retired after 25 years,wonder how super a senior bank person would have millions?
     
  9. Arvin Grajau

    Arvin Grajau Seven Time F1 World Champ
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    #9 Arvin Grajau, Feb 18, 2010
    well in keatings recession a lot of good people went down.
    what loser he turned out to be,
     
  10. ACP

    ACP Formula Junior

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    #10 ACP, Feb 18, 2010
    I am always very wary of people who claim to know the future, especially with such accuracy.
     
  11. SPEEDCORE

    SPEEDCORE Four Time F1 World Champ

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    #11 SPEEDCORE, Feb 18, 2010
    Cash up? Is he a wog?
     
  12. serious groper

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    #12 serious groper, Feb 18, 2010
    I hope you didn't forget our little coffee bet....

    M3 growth over 2009 vs 2008 -7.9% for the private sector.

    What does that tell you about property prices? Less cash doesn't equal higher prices. No cash, no inflation.
     
  13. Fil-Ski

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    #13 Fil-Ski, Feb 18, 2010
    I guess that's the M3 supply in Australia.
    What about the USA thats printing like crazy. This money will find it's way to Australia.
     
  14. Schmick325

    Schmick325 Formula Junior

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    #14 Schmick325, Feb 18, 2010
    Why is the economy growing at an annualised rate of 6% then? (stats released yesterday)

    Borrowed money?
     
  15. Fil-Ski

    Fil-Ski Karting

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    #15 Fil-Ski, Feb 18, 2010
  16. serious groper

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    #16 serious groper, Feb 18, 2010
    Correct, it is Australian M3 -7.9% for private sector (Govt debt not included) 08 vs 09.

    The US are selling treasuries which artificially increases their M3 however it is debt that needs to be paid back, not printing cash out of thin air.

    Why do you think the US Govt no longer publicly displays their M3? Not to hide inflation but to hide deflation. The US halted printing cash from thin air at the end of 2008. Their M3 shrunk in 08 vs 09 just like ours. The US M3 for 2010 vs 2009 will shrink again around -6%.

    US bank lending is down 16% over the past 12 months. A result of a shortage of cash.

    Schmick - It's the stimulus which is paid via debt. Borrowed money artificially inflates the M3 as at some point you have to pay it back. Mind you we bloody well should have grown seeing as we had the worlds largest stimulus (% of GDP)!
     
  17. wrxmike

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    #17 wrxmike, Feb 18, 2010
  18. Schmick325

    Schmick325 Formula Junior

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    #18 Schmick325, Feb 18, 2010
  19. serious groper

    serious groper Formula Junior

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    #19 serious groper, Feb 18, 2010
    Thanks for the links, haven't read those sites. They look good.
     
  20. Arvin Grajau

    Arvin Grajau Seven Time F1 World Champ
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    #20 Arvin Grajau, Feb 19, 2010
    The joints is F..............................
     
  21. kongman

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    #21 kongman, Feb 19, 2010
    was this guy tryin to sell anything ??
     
  22. serious groper

    serious groper Formula Junior

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    #22 serious groper, Feb 19, 2010
    Yes.

    His heavily LVR'd investment properties LOL.
     
  23. Robdownunder

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    #23 Robdownunder, Feb 19, 2010
    Right on Mr.Brash!
    My successful business is affected by one thing.....the direct amount of effort I put into it and the old adage about "the harder I work the luckier I get."

    Not external forces telling me to expect doom and gloom.....that's why I never go to seminars with people who have never run their own businesses.

    But if you can get something out of it, then so be it....nothing wrong with that.
     
  24. Arvin Grajau

    Arvin Grajau Seven Time F1 World Champ
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    #24 Arvin Grajau, Feb 19, 2010
    no,came as a guest to a group of melbournes best accountants annual monthly meeting.
     
  25. Arvin Grajau

    Arvin Grajau Seven Time F1 World Champ
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    #25 Arvin Grajau, Feb 19, 2010
    reason i was able to retire at 50,mind you grand dads 50 million trust acc is a back stop,when it becomes avaialable
     
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