US GP in Austin Discussion and Speculation...

No kidding; thank you....

 

I think we have our answer

 

Not sure. Somebody mentioned in this epic thread that at this point Tavo has only 5% of the investments secured. If true, that's your smoking gun.

 

Hmm, it'd be nice if it was only a one week difference from the Canadian GP......

 

In the interview in F1 magazine Tavo hints that the race will not be aligned with the Canadian GP (as I was sure it would be) but rather with the Brazilian GP.

 

How is Texas' weather in November?

 

could be ten, could be sixty.

 

I remember a Christmas just a few years ago had 80 degree weather, while this past one was in the 20s

It really can't be predicted, but it will most likely be dry!

 

Sunny, with scattered tornadoes.......

 

No tornadoes allowed in F1.
Movable aerodynamic devices and all that

 

Weather is chilly in the AM and hot and sunny in the afternoon. One of the nicest times of the year.

 

This doesn't bode well.

Steve Sexton was hired as the president of the Austin GP. He just "resigned" from Churchill Downs after he promoted a three day concert that lost $5 million. Ouch.

 

Well, to be accurate, where we disagreed was in what was required. I talked about a substation and lots of juice and you talked about some kV lines strung around. Not to sound gloaty, but the former was correct - this is a serious electrical job.

I don't doubt that *if* money was no object, the electrical could be done. I do doubt that, even if money was no object, they would be able to make a 14-month deadline, but the larger problem is that money is an object.

I think if they had unlimited funds, they would already be faced with spending more money to meet the tight deadline... but when money is such a factor (you have little and are trying to ration it carefully), every day that passes is a further nail in the coffin. I believe they are already well past the point of not making it for 2012. The only question is whether there will be any race at all, which I think is in very serious doubt.

 

Boxers always laugh, right after they have taken a really hard hit and are in big trouble

I have a standing open bet, for anyone who wishes to take it, that the Austin GP will not happen in 2012... nobody has yet. Who will be the first?

 

Much more serious than that...

-Loss of an entire years worth of revenue without similar reduction in costs
-$10mm penalty
-Having to amortize costs over 9 years instead of 10
-Not being able to save money on the first year with infrastructure (roads, etc) and use the legitimacy gained from the first year race to raise $$ to pay those costs in time for the 2nd year
-Significantly increased difficulty in raising $$ going forward
-Who knows what the ramifications will be at the city/county level. If they fail to deliver on this huge project they sold everyone on, what does that mean in terms of financial penalties, or the $$ the state committed to the project? Or the financing afforded (such as partial coverage of the electrical infrastructure costs?). At a minimum, it won't be good and it could be really bad.

In short, whatever circumstances led to them not being able to make it for 2012 would be significantly compounded for making it in 2013. It wasn't a time problem - they have had a year so far and they hardly did anything on-site. This was a money problem, and that will get much worse if they fail to make 2012.

 

Sorry to spam the thread, it's 1pm where I am and 4am in the USA, so nobody is replying except me

Think of it this way... let's say you are Warren Buffet and have a billion dollars in cash in a bank account to make this happen that you have had in place since the fall. What would the Austin site look like *right now*?

There would be hundreds of people on-site. There would be dozens and dozens of pieces of construction equipment running during every daylight hour. There would be trucks arriving daily with materials and supplies.

There is no scenario, under which money was no object, that you would have just a handful of pieces of machinery and scant little work being done. There is no way that what we are seeing is the preferred timeline and progress status. It is obviously constrained.

The reasons for the constraint given - bad weather, permits, no-rush, "not that complicated of a project compared to other tracks", etc are all just excuses. We all know that things aren't going the way they need to be going. I posted pics of Yas and Korea showing orders of magnitude more work than in Austin. The money just isn't there. The signs of the truthfulness of that claim are in abundance, not the least of which is the failure of Austin GP's attempt at a private placement of funds.

They don't have the money. It is critical to the project to keep the dream alive. The microsecond the dream is dead, the flow of money will a abruptly stop.


In short, the proof of no funding is the lack of work being done, as well as the documented failure of the private placement. On the other hand, there is zero evidence that things are progressing as necessary to make this happen.

 

Excellent point. The rose colored glasses view of just delaying the race a year can't happen. If there's not money to do it in 2012, there won't be money to do it in 2013 either.

 

Missing deadlines rarely increases funding.

 

F1 race in 2012 or not - theres gonna be a sweet track carved into the Texas hill country landscape. Texas racers win regardless

 

And if they don't have enough money to pave it, tell me Texans won't use it for motocross or rally!!! We're winning...

 

Thanks Charlie

While its likely that there will be some sort of track there at some point this is the F1 Forum and the subject of the thread is the USGP.

 

I have installed and maintained 15KV loops for Rice University, Houston Baptist University, NASA, Moody Gardens at Galveston and several others...

You don't need to build a new generating plant OR a substation in regions that are already "within the grid" such as this property.

It's not like it's in the wilderness, as I think you are envisioning...

I really think you are grossly oevrestimating power consumption, but I don't have hard data.

I've just met my project team from Austin Commercial here, once I have a rappor I'll enquire as to who "really knows" what's going on. They got a permit here in seventeen days....LOL!

100% drawings last Monday, construction starts next Thursday on site.

We are prefabricating now.....

This track might not even NEED permanent grandstands,.....they rent them you know....

 

You say you don't need a substation in the area because it's "within the grid" and doesn't require anything major.


Austin Commercial says the energy demands will be substantially above what the existing infrastructure is capable of supplying, and are putting ~$1.5 million of their money as well as around a million of Austin F1GP's money into an electrical infrastructure build-out.

You say "I think you are grossly overestimating power consumption, but I don't have any hard data". Austin Commercial is building a megawatt substation.

End of story, no?

 

According to Speed TV there will be an announcement on Tuesday evening regarding the USGP.

 

Yeh I caught that and I believe it's at 7pm Central although the show 'American Truckers' is on. I thought it may have been a 30min special or something.