599 depreciation curve

Hello 599'ers...

Am wondering what your thoughts are on 599 depreciation rates.
Now that the 599 replacement is out - what do you expect will happen to resale values?

More specifically, when are good (and relatively low mileage) examples of the 599 going to be available in the 125 to 150 range?

Any thoughts to the 458 in comparison? Faster depreciation? When will the 599 and 458 have common values (if ever)?

Thanks for your thoughts,
Vincenzo

 

I can't imagine them dropping under $150 for at least 5 years. Even though a new model has come out, these are bulletproof and a very classic design.

 

The high mileage cars are already sub 150.... I'd be looking for a car with 10 to 15k or less miles in the sub 150 range. It will be interesting to watch the price point change as the 458 starts to flood the market.
Bst Rgds,
Vincenzo


http://www.cars.com/go/search/detail.jsp?tracktype=usedcc&csDlId=&csDgId=&listingId=86229915&listingRecNum=0&criteria=sf1Dir%3DASC%26mkId%3D20014%26stkTyp%3DU%26mdId%3D20508%26rd%3D100000%26crSrtFlds%3DstkTypId-feedSegId-mkId-mdId%26zc%3D89441%26rn%3D0%26PMmt%3D1-1-0%26stkTypId%3D28881%26sf2Dir%3DASC%26sf1Nm%3Dprice%26sf2Nm%3Dmiles%26isDealerGrouping%3Dfalse%26rpp%3D50%26feedSegId%3D28705&aff=national&listType=1
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I agree- auto trader has two 07's with ~13k miles, asking $169k so of course they'll be below $150 in 5 yrs and , IMO, will be sniffing $100k and eventually settle in 550/575 territory. Unfortunately all of our cars are nothing more than cars and thus ever depreciating assets. Lets not forget 360 spiders were going for $300k in 2001!

 

They'll get there when they get there, and the F12 will have nothing to do with it. Though it is fun to see GTO's actually for sale now.

 

Normal mileage 599s right now trade in the 180s. You cant pull the 1 or 2 absolute rock bottom lowest price examples available anywhere at any given moment and call that current pricing. This always happens in pricing discussions on any make/model and it is never accurate. You need to work with the average current value and drop the absolute low end and absolute high end, IMO. Why? Because there are always cars that appear great, and are used as examples of what cars are "selling for", that have massive stories behind them and will *never* sell. On the other side there are always those cars on auto trader that are priced through the roof and seemingly are priced to also *never* sell. No one ever chooses those to indicate market though

To hit the 150s, they need to lose another 30k or, roughly another 18% depreciation.

I think 4% a year at this stage is a reasonable figure to assume.

The original answer of 5 years seems right to me if you want to say "125-150k range"

 

Come on, 4% per annum depreciation on a car? It was about 10% last year, and that's pretty good for a car.

 

Almost 60k miles on that one! WOW! Makes mine with around 12500 seem brand new!
And by the way, that example is the CHEAPEST one on cars.com. Examples with around 10k miles are in the $190k range. I bought mine with the 9300 miles last August for $195k.

 

What was yours listed at when you bought it?

 

The 150k car was wrecked by Fabio and has had the engine replaced.

Hardly the market indicator.

 

Haha... Wrecked by Fabio; now there's a selling point.

It's funny when you see one of these one offs that's so far out of norm but is priced just 5% below cars with a quarter the miles. Ferrari of Washington ha a Cali with 40,000 on it and they have it listed just like 10% below the rest of the field. I'm sure they'd take less. That gorgeous rubino 612 I nearly bought last year was the same deal, nearly 50k miles but priced just 10% below the next with far less than half the miles. There certainly are guys like me looking at them, lowest priced examples.

 

There is a 2010 599 HGTE package at Ferrari of Seattle for $269 with 600 miles. This is a two owner car with both owners that each drove the car about 300 miles.
Warranty expires at end of this year.

Thought on the color combo and the price?
Would this be hard to resell in a year with 3000 miles on it for a F12?

Appreciate the input. Thanks.

 

2 owners in 600 miles? Strikes me as odd. Might be good to chat with the previous owners... Might ask the dealer for their records.

As far as selling is concerned - I'll be interested in the 150 range - but sadly, not before :-(

Nice color!

Rgds,
Vince

 

I think the depreciation curve for the highly-computerized newer cars is going to be hard to pin down, because we don't have a lot of historic data. (In comparison we have tons of data on vintage and classics.)

A 599 under factory warranty is a relatively safe purchase, but once it hits the decade mark I think it will be a stretch to get six figures for it (obviously different math if inflation kicks in). Pricing/availability of spares has already killed Testarossa values, and nice 550s are haveable in the $60K-$70K range. If you want to know what a 2008 599 will be worth when it's 10 years old, the pricing trend of a 1998 550 is about as good a guide as you'll find (599 is faster, but also has more technology that will be obsolete).

I'd predict $150K for a nice 599 in 2013, but wouldn't touch one without a CPO warranty.

As to common values, it's possible. The problem is that over the very long term (20+ years) I think both the 458 and 599 will have fallen between the cracks: old technology, but not really collectible. Best thing is to drive them and enjoy them now.

 

There seem to be more popping up these days, in the 160-180k range they seem like alot of car for the money...hell a new 911S these days is 115k sticker!!

 

Wow.. that is a pessimistic forecast. Likely in the ballpark though.

Rgds,
Vincenzo

 

Why is that pessimistic? We're all obsessed with the values because we want to own these gorgeous cars, but there's nothing wrong with being realistic over depreciation. Nothing makes ownership less enjoyable than obsessing over depreciation, and while I can't manage to keep my nose out of the conversation, because I love 599's and want one and also can't wait for them to be even more affordable, I also think it makes Fchat less fun for owners. Back to topic, what in the world could be pessimistic about a decade old car retaining 25-33% of it's value? I call that a reason to celebrate. Hell, at that rate you could have the world's worst note from Woodside and still have residual value remaining after a 12 year payoff. These cars hold their value very, very well.

 

You either pay for depreciation or repairs there is no free lunch.

 

Traded my 2010 599 HGTE loaded ( 385 list ) in on a 458 spider and the dealer sold it this week for 245k. My car was red/ tan and had 3700 miles. It was showroom condition. Took only a few days to sell and was listed for 259k.

 

Much of the depreciation is driven by ever greater technological advancement (AKA HP).

If for example, a TR was putting out 600+HP, why would you want to pay a significant premium for a 599?

At 600HP+ I don't see a lot more room for huge advancements in the key area of HP. Say, for example 850+HP - - seems a bit nuts and superfluous on the highway.

Eventually, the HP race will slow down - and then what happens to depreciation? I think it will slow and F-car is going to have a more difficult time selling new cars at premium prices.... interesting times ahead.

Thoughts?

Rgds,
Vincenzo

 

Wow. 64% of MSRP. 18%/year.

I bought my '06 612 in 2009. It had a month of warranty left, and it went for about 50% of MSRP.

The guy who thinks these cars are going down only 4%/year is crazy.

 

I agree with the notion that 4% a year is not even in the ballpark, but in fairness your 612 purchase in 2009 was almost certainly benefited by the chaotic herd-running-off-a-cliff mentality of the economy on the tail of the 2008 meltdown (shrewd move on your part). I purchased a new luxury SUV in January 2009 for almost $30k off of MSRP, and they were happy for the business. I'll tell you this, if the economy continues to wallow as it has for the last 3 years, or worse catches the European contagion certainly coming in some form to our shores, more Ferrari deals may soon be in store.

 

I thing Micheal Sheehan is right. Modern production Ferraris are just used cars. After the initial pump and dump.

 

Wait 'till elections are over - then it will come to our shores. Obama is is working hard to delay the inevitable. For the good of your vote - not the good of the country.

Sorry - got off topic.

Rgds,
Vincenzo

 

Depreciation curve?

Easy. Down and to the right!

Somewhere on F-chat I posted all of the math of post 1998 Ferrari depreciation. Rates tended to be between 8-18% IIRC. V12s (for whatever reason) fall sharply - see $90k 2002 575, $130k 2006 612 and $190k 2007 599 for reference. Scud fell from $300k+ to below $200k in only 3 years also was a fast depreciator. Interestingly the Cali and 458 have held up very well despite relatively heavy production numbers.

But, again, details aside, these are cars and they are produced in numbers too great and with electronics too sophisticated to be collectables and thus its all DOWN. Great news for many of us who buy used Ferraris...