52F | FerrariChat

52F

Discussion in 'Aviation Chat' started by TRScotty, Oct 8, 2012.

This site may earn a commission from merchant affiliate links, including eBay, Amazon, Skimlinks, and others.

  1. TRScotty

    TRScotty F1 Rookie
    Owner

    Oct 12, 2006
    2,505
    Tyler, Texas
    Full Name:
    Scotty
  2. rob lay

    rob lay Administrator
    Staff Member Admin Miami 2018 Owner Social Subscribed

    Dec 1, 2000
    63,478
    Southlake, TX
    Full Name:
    Rob Lay
  3. drjohngober

    drjohngober Formula 3

    Jul 23, 2006
    2,040
    Cville and Gbury Tex
    Full Name:
    Dr.John Gober
    I have known Len for over 20 years. Everyone is in shock.His brother Greg was also a very experienced pilot.
    Only thing we can figure out is icing or CO incapacitation. I found out,Saturday evening and keep looking at the flight on flight tracker to make sense of this.
     
  4. TRScotty

    TRScotty F1 Rookie
    Owner

    Oct 12, 2006
    2,505
    Tyler, Texas
    Full Name:
    Scotty
    Sorry for the loss of your friend.

    I agree that very little about this so far makes any sense.

    Has the NTSB been able to shed any light on this crash yet?

    A sure tragedy for all involved.
     
  5. rob lay

    rob lay Administrator
    Staff Member Admin Miami 2018 Owner Social Subscribed

    Dec 1, 2000
    63,478
    Southlake, TX
    Full Name:
    Rob Lay
    it will be awhile before NTSB makes a report, chatter so far it might have been a JET-A Bo? JET-A not sold at 52F, Athens had the cheapest JET-A in area. They might have been trying to go there for gas, it was slammed, they then picked Terrell and tried a couple approaches, but it was slammed too. In the flight track you see some squiggly lines, possible rocking wings to get fuel flow?
     
  6. TRScotty

    TRScotty F1 Rookie
    Owner

    Oct 12, 2006
    2,505
    Tyler, Texas
    Full Name:
    Scotty
    So you think they took off from 52F with low fuel, wanted JET-A and couldn't find an airport with room to park?

    Or they had a fuel-flow issue as their maneuvers suggest and they were having trouble to the extent that they couldn't emergency land at Terrell?

    I know it's all speculation at this point, but it's also hard to believe that two experienced pilots would have such a crash without some catastrophic failure of the airplane.
     
  7. rob lay

    rob lay Administrator
    Staff Member Admin Miami 2018 Owner Social Subscribed

    Dec 1, 2000
    63,478
    Southlake, TX
    Full Name:
    Rob Lay
    slammed means low ceilings.
     
  8. drjohngober

    drjohngober Formula 3

    Jul 23, 2006
    2,040
    Cville and Gbury Tex
    Full Name:
    Dr.John Gober
    I have been told the flight tracker path is inaccurate. If you at the graphs, his airpseed dropped from 154 to 41 in 1 minute while maintaining an altitude of 3000.
    The graph where the squiggly lines ( very steep turns) were on flight tracker at airpseeds around 55- while maintaining altitude perfectly at 3K- for over an hour. I sat up most Saturday night/Sunday morning trying to make sense of it.
    I have heard the flight disappeared from ATC radar 32 minutes being airborn- the Flightaware tracker software readings were erroneous after the crash.
    Tail number was N32GP for October 6th if someone wants to look at and give thoughts.

    Sad thing is he was a great guy, great family and great pilot. Had thousands of hours and was known for being thorough and very safe. He used to lecture me that I needed to finish my instrument rating.
     
  9. rob lay

    rob lay Administrator
    Staff Member Admin Miami 2018 Owner Social Subscribed

    Dec 1, 2000
    63,478
    Southlake, TX
    Full Name:
    Rob Lay
  10. TRScotty

    TRScotty F1 Rookie
    Owner

    Oct 12, 2006
    2,505
    Tyler, Texas
    Full Name:
    Scotty
    Oops, didn't know that, makes sense.

    So the telemetry was all wrong in your estimation?
    Would there be any other source of data to discover what was going on in that cockpit?
    These types of small planes don't typically have "black boxes" do they?
    What I don't understand is the lack of a distress call or any tower communication (assuming there was none, as the media hasn't mentioned any) considering the fact that they think he circled Terrell for 2.5 to 3 hours.

    I'm guessing that they went down 32 minutes in.

    His (and his brother's) experince level would suggest to me (a non-pilot aviation fan) some horribly unexpected failure of the craft.
    If someone thought they were doing circles in the air for ~3 hours, wouldn't they say something??
     
  11. Tcar

    Tcar F1 Rookie

    Can't figure out why they'd want Jet-A in a Bonanza... what am I missing?
     
  12. TRScotty

    TRScotty F1 Rookie
    Owner

    Oct 12, 2006
    2,505
    Tyler, Texas
    Full Name:
    Scotty
    I don't get that either.
    Wasn't a turboprop.
     
  13. drjohngober

    drjohngober Formula 3

    Jul 23, 2006
    2,040
    Cville and Gbury Tex
    Full Name:
    Dr.John Gober
    http://flightaware.com/live/flight/N32GP/history/20121006/1300Z/52F/KTRL/tracklog


    Looks like wheels up at 10:09

    Got to 3000 at 10:17 and held there. Autopilot or alt. hold on
    Was on flight plan- looks like avoided DFW Class B
    Headed a little north-east- probably avoiding ADS
    Headed more South- Looks like he never entered Athens airspace- Center might have told him ceilings too low at Athens- divert to Terrell
    At 10:47, the headings became erratic but alt held at 3000- KIAs looked ok

    10:51 headed east- Airspeed and alt ok
    10:56 headed north Airspeed and alt ok

    11:11 Something bad happened. Airspeed shows 41 but alt still at 3000 ( impossible)

    11:12 to 12:15 ( 1 hour 3 min) , flight tracker shows airpseed 55 while still at 3000. This is where the headings and the map reveals turns that are impossible-especially at those low speeds with no altitude lost.

    12:16 shows a return of airspeed to 153 at 3000 at a heading of 360 until 12:52.


    I have been told the crash must have happened at 11:11. The flight tracker software attempts to triangulate with the transponder and correlate from previous readings when not receiving.

    I just don't get it. Icing?
    Carbon monoxide incapacitation? If so , both pilots out at the same time? Someone reach up and turn off auto pilot? If not, plane would have continued on at 3000.
    Med Emergency- Other pilot could have taken over
    Structural loss? Debris looked to have all of parts of plane at crash scene
    Loss of control due to mechanical or structural failure? Maybe
    Loss of instumentation? Center could have vectored them and helped them maintain altitude.

    Whatever happened was immediate and unrecoverable. I just don't get it.

    The Bonanza was owned by Len and his brother Greg. Palm L, LLC was merely their holding company. They used it to fly to one of his dental practices at least once a week in the Valley. As far as I know, they were the only ones that flew it.


    I am sure more knowledgeable minds can help.
    Such a horrible tragedy.
     
  14. jcurry

    jcurry Two Time F1 World Champ
    Silver Subscribed

    Jan 16, 2012
    23,729
    In the past
    Full Name:
    Jim
  15. rob lay

    rob lay Administrator
    Staff Member Admin Miami 2018 Owner Social Subscribed

    Dec 1, 2000
    63,478
    Southlake, TX
    Full Name:
    Rob Lay
    they have turboprop conversions, they think this one was.
     
  16. drjohngober

    drjohngober Formula 3

    Jul 23, 2006
    2,040
    Cville and Gbury Tex
    Full Name:
    Dr.John Gober
    It wasn't. Normal aspirated piston I believe
     
  17. TRScotty

    TRScotty F1 Rookie
    Owner

    Oct 12, 2006
    2,505
    Tyler, Texas
    Full Name:
    Scotty
    I agree, had to be then.

    Makes sense to me.

    Agree, pure tragedy for all involved.

    How will investigators determine structural loss if there is not a large debris field?
    Would that actually make it easier?
    If the plane just went in, could they determine the cause with the absence of data recorders, etc.?
     
  18. rob lay

    rob lay Administrator
    Staff Member Admin Miami 2018 Owner Social Subscribed

    Dec 1, 2000
    63,478
    Southlake, TX
    Full Name:
    Rob Lay
    NTSB are experienced and good at what they do, without witnesses it may be difficult with that kind of debris field. it will be easier for them to determine if fuel starvation or mechanical with engine.
     
  19. TRScotty

    TRScotty F1 Rookie
    Owner

    Oct 12, 2006
    2,505
    Tyler, Texas
    Full Name:
    Scotty
    I would think that a mechanical problem would at least give the pilot(s) time to radio or alert that they were in distress.

    Things seem to be pointing in the direction of some type of structural failure that rendered the craft unable to maintain controlled flight, which would not provide time to make a call.

    Wouldn't you think that an engine failure at 3,000' at 150kts would enable you to "game plan" an emergency landing, if only in a grassy field?
    That type would or could be very survivable, no?
     
  20. drjohngober

    drjohngober Formula 3

    Jul 23, 2006
    2,040
    Cville and Gbury Tex
    Full Name:
    Dr.John Gober
    It is nice to have someone look at this also. If I am not busy, I have been running this through my mind trying make some sense of this.
    If it had been fuel starvation, I feel pretty confident they could have gotten down at least into some sort of configuration and outcome better than this.
    Rob is right about the NTSB. I know they have formulas that are accurate in determining airspeed and angle when the plane crashed.
    From the crater at the impact spot, it must have been a very steep angle at high speed.


    I was thinking maybe the first 41 airspeed reading was correct and he was in a stall but still at 3000- had not entered a spin yet but I don't think an A 36 can maintain altitude at 41 without a huge headwind. But then again, all the altitude readings after that initial report shows 3000 also.
    Also, no way to slow down from 155 to 41 in 1 minute.

    You would think a flat spin would have lasted more than 1 min from 3000 and would have shown up as a report.
     
  21. drjohngober

    drjohngober Formula 3

    Jul 23, 2006
    2,040
    Cville and Gbury Tex
    Full Name:
    Dr.John Gober

    I think you are right on all counts Scotty
     
  22. rob lay

    rob lay Administrator
    Staff Member Admin Miami 2018 Owner Social Subscribed

    Dec 1, 2000
    63,478
    Southlake, TX
    Full Name:
    Rob Lay
    you just can't think about things and analyze them as much as you are trying to do. especially one like this, it will drive you crazy. my guess most likely it will come back pretty straight forward headed to Athens, Athens below minimums, diverted to Terrell, Terrell below minimums and went missed, setup for a 2nd approach and ran out of gas. plane was 6 miles short of runway. remember shooting an approach and going missed eats a bunch of gas with the long fixes and climbs when missed.

    most cases planes just don't fall apart, they run out of gas or CFIT (controlled flight into terrian).

    regardless what it was they will put the blame on the pilot, I've already warned family that if I go down fully expect the blame to be put on me no matter what happens. If the mechanic messed up, engine blows, and then you crash it, then still your fault for not gliding it to a safe landing in a field with 400 foot ceilings.
     
  23. TRScotty

    TRScotty F1 Rookie
    Owner

    Oct 12, 2006
    2,505
    Tyler, Texas
    Full Name:
    Scotty
    I understand, and I'm not trying to go crazy (or make anyone else go crazy,) just curious mostly.

    Your scenario may very well be validated by the final report.

    I find it odd that a pair of very experienced pilots would knowingly go up with insufficient fuel in sketchy weather conditions hoping to make a stop along the way.

    I find it odd that said diversion (assuming for fuel) was not in the flight plan.

    I understand that the only reason to do so (fuel stop) was if the craft were turbine powered, but that hasn't been confirmed, either, in fact, Dr. John has all but confirmed the opposite.

    You certainly have more experience as a pilot and access to more data and forums on the subject than I, but my mind still can't grasp the lack of distress call and a steep nose-dive into the ground as being purely engine or fuel-system related.

    Do the towers have recordings of any conversations that we in the public are not aware of that would be part of the investigation?
    That might explain a lot if he were trying to put down at a municipal out of schedule, or if the pilots had indicated a problem.
     
  24. toggie

    toggie F1 World Champ
    Owner Silver Subscribed

    Nov 30, 2003
    19,036
    Virginia
    Full Name:
    Toggie (Ron)
    Just a theory, but could a large bird strike happen at 3000 feet?
    Maybe a Canada Goose or Turkey Vulture coming through the windshield?
    Something large enough to knock out both pilots?

    It is hard to imagine what would bring down such a plane with two pilots on board.
    Sorry for the loss of friends of some on here and sympathy to their families.
    .
     
  25. rob lay

    rob lay Administrator
    Staff Member Admin Miami 2018 Owner Social Subscribed

    Dec 1, 2000
    63,478
    Southlake, TX
    Full Name:
    Rob Lay
    The last frequencies he was on aren't on Live ATC (internet ATC recordings). You can listein to recordings up to that point which doesn't offer much.

     

Share This Page