Given the new safety standards and Bernie's pit standards, I'd say it'd be easier to start from scratch. Just look at Donington. Oh wait, maybe not...
Indy was a success the first year, maybe even the second. Ticket prices were a bargain compared to Austin. So wait until year 3 or 4 to call Austin a success. Carlos (Telcel) Slim's son has been working on getting the Ricardo circuit revised so they could host an F1 race. Telcel is of course in F1, but they are also into NASCAR Mexico in a big way. The Slim's are businessmen in the same light as Aristole Onassis. Onassis stated he had two rules of success, use other people's money, and always have a tan. I doubt the government would come up with the money, so I am not sure what "other people's money" would be available in Mexico. I live in northern Mexico, and I would agree, most of the Mexican contingent at Austin were already in the States legally or illegally. The same weekend of Austin was Mexico's version of a 4 day "Black Friday". That is where most Mexicans were that weekend. According to a friend with USCIS, that weekend should even less crossing the border than typical. Sure a Mexican GP would be great for me, and the ticket prices would likely be realistic compared to Austin. No, I do not think it would hurt Austin. Only Austin can hurt Austin.
True. First year is always the big new thing and people will come. The following years are the real test. Indy was a good example of that where the show around the race got smaller and smaller every year. Korea, Shanghai and India are experiencing the same problem. I still think a Mexican GP would hurt Austin. Not "just" because of the Mexicans but also because of the South Americans. I'm sure a bunch of them flew to Austin.
Correct me if I am wrong, but I don't think Austin will hurt Canada. So I would think the same concept applies with Austin/Mexico. And they still go to Silverstone even with Monza, Belgium, two in Spain, etc, and those circuits are geographically closer. I think many of the South Americans came from south Florida in addition to their continent.
I think a mexican GP would be great for the sport, and entirely possible given the private capital that exists in the country. Having another race in the same time zone as many people living in the US might actually benefit the US grand prix in austin, more people would be able to get into F1. Lets not for get about Argentina, they are trying to get a race too. that would put 5 races into daytime TV watching for people living in north and south america. New Jersey's problem was scheduling and NBC, the idea was a daytime race on a major network, but the date they were given turned out to be the same weekend as the US Open which is broadcast on NBC.
I agree that Austin doesn't hurt Canada, at least not a whole lot. NY GP would hurt Montreal. The reason I think of Austin and Mexico in direct competition is because Texas (like Florida) is a gateway to South and Central America. And when I hear that 40% of the audience were from Mexico then I see the US GP in jeopardy over a race in Mexico.
You need to understand the nature of Carlos Slim. If you do, then you wish him nothing positive. In Mexico, he is considered a real POS.
None of the people I have met in Chihuahua over the last 5 years with Ferrari emblems on their Mitsubishis went to Austin. Mostly because none of them have visas. They were all buying flat panels at bargain prices that weekend, even though those bargain prices were still 30% higher than in the USA.
It has been reported in the local media that a Mexican GP is already in the works. Slim Jr. is behind the project. In addition a new Government is taking power on Dec 1 and Mexico is the flavor of the month in emerging markets. Put all this together, add two Mexican drivers in F1 and you get a GP.
There are plenty of Mexicans in Texas yet many people flew in or crossed the border for the race. A local airline even added flights to Texas to cove the demand. My buddies who attended reported back that Mexicans from Mexico were a large % of the crowd. I know many here who are not F1 fans or would wake up early on a Sunday to watch a GP and still made it to Austin to see the race. IMO a Mexican GP would take away a good portion of these fans. That doesn't mean the US GP will not continue to be a success though. I agree both races would be competition but don't think the a Mexican GP would put the US GP in jeopardy. Austin is closer and more accessible to cities near the border. I'm sure that guys from Monterrey are more likely to travel to Austin than Mexico City.
Don't know if I'd want to go to Mexico City having a great track like Austin right here, especially with the drug crime over there.
At least 30-40% of the people were speaking Spanish from what I could tell. Lots of people from Mexico or Spain.
30-40% Spanish speaking is typical for the population of most Texas cities. Some are a lot higher, like San Antonio... and some border towns in Texas are close to 95% Spanish speaking. I'd say the overwhelming majority of Spanish speakers at the race were from Texas. I certainly did not see the volume of Mexican license plates in the parking lots that I expected... it was about the same percentage you'd see at a San Antonio wal-mart on any given day. Perhaps they were hesitant because of the unknowns? I don't know what a Mexican GP would do to the Austin race, but don't I suspect it would do much. Plenty of the Mexican population lives closer to Austin than DF anyway, plus Texas alone could easily sell out the venue if the show continues to be good. I agree with RP that the likely things that would impact attendance in Austin are things that within COTA's or Austin's control (ticket prices, transportation/amenities, hotels, etc). As for the Mexican GP happening, I'd give it about 20% right now. At any given time, there are 4-5 "proposed" F1 races worldwide. Out of those, maybe 2 will get a "contract" with Bernie, at which point attrition is still about 50%. If they can make it past the part where Bernie rips up their contract , then we'll see.
+1 Same here in CA. Just because they're speaking Spanish certainly doesn't mean they've come up from Mexico. Fix't Cheers, Ian
I live with my wife in the most populated state in Mexico, the state of Chihuahua. It borders New Mexico and Texas. Mexico DF is like Washingtion, DC, it is not a state but the center of the Federal Government. It is the most populated single "city" in Mexico. There are no cross country passenger trains in Mexico. So if any Mexican residents went to Austin legally, the majority would have come from the northern states and a smaller percentage from the south, and Mexico DF. By bus, it is at least 20+ hours from Mexico DF to El Paso, Texas. As I said before, a Mexican GP would very likely not hurt Austin. Only Austin can hurt Austin, and I have no doubt that ultimately it will. If it becomes cheaper to pay for airfare and room to go elsewhere to see an F1 event, then many will abandon Austin by 2015. Compared to the first year of a USGP at Indianapolis, Austin was a failure. Indy drew over twice as many paid spectators in its firt year, a number closer to 250,000 vs 130,000 at Austin. The question about Mexico that remains to be seen, who will pay for the expenses. Doubtful it would be the Slim's, and I doubt it will be their new Prez, Penis Neeto. He was not the favorite of the majority, Penis won by buying votes. Much to my disappointment, a Mexican GP is less than a 30% probability.
I just had that conversation with my mom a couple nights ago, about no cross country passenger trains in Mexico. I found it very peculiar. I still don't believe that many Mexicans came from Mexico to watch the race. My bet is that those Mexicans were already in Gringolandia. Maybe El Chapo Guzman will pay for the track!
In Mexico there is plenty of rail, but it is for freight. Passengers travel by bus -- and the bus system is quite extensive. Unlike the US, bus travel isn't limited to lower income folks. There are nice first class buses, mid class, and then the cheap ones. Regarding Austin attendance, I believe it will be higher in year 2 than year one. I wonder, how often does that happen with a new GP? The folks that bought tickets for the innagural race were really taking a leap of faith, with so many unknowns even until the very end, and lots of negative speculation regarding traffic. Plus the late start for ticket sales meant a lot of fans didn't have enough time to plan for the trip. This time the more risk-averse fans will be buying up tickets fast, as will many locals who heard about how fun it was. NBC will be broadcasting it nationally, so you can expect more TV promotion to a huge audience. So if you are thinking of going, my guess is you will really need to be quick to pull the trigger when tickets go on sale. Especially for GA. Unless of course they decide to raise the price, something I wouldn't put past COTA...
Given the cost to attend an F1 race, I doubt very much that the fact that the passenger rail system in Mexico is lacking, means anything to those Mexicans who would attend an F1 race. I don't quite see the argument that train availability would have any effect on attendance of an F1 race (in the US or in Mexico). An F1 race in Mexico City would likely affect the Austin race only marginally. I think the larger affect comes from whether or not there is a Mexican in the race. Mexicans, I think, are less likely to go to Austin if there isn't one, and more likely to attend if there is. Conversely, a race in Mexico City would probably be little affected by the lack of participation by a Mexican driver. Back when Mexico City had an f1 race, there was no Mexican driver and it was still well attended. At the f1 races I have been at in the US, Mexican attendance was there but not nearly as much as at Austin. My bet is that that was due to the presence of a Mexican driver more than the location of the race. That said, my theory won't be tested for a while because now with two Mexican drivers in F1, it will be a number of years before they are tested enough to either wash out, or retire. I certainly hope there is a race in Mexico City, but I just don't see the government spending the money it is going to take to either refurbish the Hermanos Rodriguez circuit, or to build a new circuit, given the current economic state. Nor do I think they should. I'm not convinced that the economic lift provided by such an event overcomes the expense associated with hosting it and putting it together.
Good points. I am on the fence because I always welcome a new GP venue and even a refurb with some of the greatness retained such as the parabolica but Slim is a much needed 'cash cow', imo of course.
The "peraltada" curve is sadly long gone and I don't see how they will bring it back with the current safety standards. That part of the track today has a stadium like section which was used in the Cart races. I give the Mexican GP a high probability. If Slim wants it, it will happen, He has a massive economic weight and political clout. Both the federal and local Government will support him.
I thought he supported (formed?) the local & federal governments himself? Any idea if they'll refurb the old track or start afresh? Cheers, Ian
