16M DISCUSSION THREAD

Jaime140 - PM sent.

 

ZFFKW66A290166772 with 7267 miles just sold for $205k
Great 16M in top condition, had been for sale since January 2013
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This claim has been posted on two popular Ferrari discussion boards simultaneously..I am calling BS on it...Very doubtful it really traded there. Especially given what I know about the current market...

 

Synchro knows what he is talking about. I have personally confirmed this with the dealer.

 

Sounds like the US market is in a real state when a rare car like the 16M goes for that sort of money. Hate to think where 458 prices are headed in the US market!
UK 16M prices are still on the up after a low of around £170k a couple of years back they are now selling (quickly) for above £180k. This car sold last week and is the 3rd 16M this dealer has sold this summer above £180k - all red!
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Ferrari only made 499 of 16M and the majority are LHD. RHD population are much less. Perhaps this is one of the few reasons the price in UK is holding well compare to US market.

 

Two, no stories and great when I drove it - I actually lost out on this.
It was a VIP customer consignment not inventory so forget margins.
(I really like the way Gary Simon and Scottsdale Ferrari treat customers)

Other posts have claimed Black is a color only loved by a few on the 16M and hence discounted.
Pic of this exact 16M and another black 16M from a Ferrari trip I led in 2011. Both have sold within the last month+

Yes, I posted it on Life also.
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If that car really traded there I think it is a major outlier.

I recently bought my car and spoke to quite a few people offering cars in the market--nobody was even close to coming down to those levels...Perhaps that car has an issue? Could be seller simply needed the cash now...

 

Car has no issues and owner did not need cash. It was on the market for over nine months. It's black and it has a few miles on it. Those are the only issues. As someone that has bought and SOLD 2 16Ms I can say that this car is not an outlier. The market speaks for itself.

This is coming from someone that loves the 16M. I think it's one of the greatest cars Ferrari has produced in the modern era.

 

I'm sure you are correct, 16M and 458 spider are now approaching parity in the UK used market - the market always sorts the price based on supply and demand. There are currently as many used 458 spiders for sale in the UK as there are total 16M's in the UK - price differential is only going one way.

 

Yea, but I just bought a 16M two weeks ago and I can tell you nobody was willing to come even close to that price....However, I was bidding on non-black cars--but not sure that matters much as I think it looks great in that color....To be fair, only a few of the cars I was looking at had as many miles..but the only car I know that is even close has similar miles and damage history. I know that one can't even be had for that price.

 

in reality, they made much more than 499. If I'm not mistaken, Michael Sheehan has confirmed Vin numbers for well over 499 of them

 

On 4/27/13 Michael Sheehan's mailing list sent that email stating 700:

"How many 599 SA Apertas
...
We continue the Geek-Fest of analysis

As yet another obsessive-compulsive point of analysis, the US-Market normally takes about 27% of Ferrari's worldwide production with peaks (above 40% in 1999) and drops (below 10% in 1996 and 1993). Both might be related to statistical errors, insufficient data or a "wrong" way of counting as the US-cars are marked as the new model year from the middle of the actual year but seem to be counted by the Factory as a car from production of the actual year. Furthermore, Americans are eager buyers of the limited series Ferraris, often more than European buyers. Checking by individual models the "fitting 27%-rule" usually applies.

Going through the Montezemolo-era "Specials" we have the following examples: 550 Barchetta, 460 produced (incl. prototypes), 135 to the US = 29.35% of the production, more or less in line with the "27%-rule". Enzo, about 440 produced (incl. pre- and post-production), 119 to the US = 27.05% of the production, again more or less in line with the "27%-rule". Challenge Stradale, 1,274 produced, 365 to the US = 28.65% of the production, again more or less in line with the "27%-rule". 575 Superamerica, 559 produced, 214 to the US = 38.28% of the production, more than the regular figures, but no surprise as Ferrari's marketing efforts had the American market in focus.

Going to the 16M, 499 produced, 224 to the US = 44.89% of the production, more than the regular figures but the official number of 499 is probably far too low and is probably more than 700 cars.

599 GTO, 599 supposedly produced, 166 known to the US = 27.71% of the production, more or less in line with regular figures.

Last but not least in this analysis, the SA Aperta, with 120 or more produced to our knowledge, 45 of those known to the US, makes 37.50% of the production, so possibly another "catcher" with the "American Brand". Both time and the 27% rule will tell how far final production exceeded 120 cars."

 

Very interesting logic. However I think there are some important points that bring in doubt this method of sampling from previous models to imply information for the 16M.
1. Many say the 228 figure is incorrect. My understanding is that the real number is 178.
2. US tends to be a bigger consumer of drop tops. BTW, 178 puts it roughly inline with superamerica figures.
3. The Scud came out in a very different point in the cycle than the other examples. Namely, just after the scare of 2008. Probably as bad as things have every been in the last 100 years!

Not saying Ferrari did not go over--they are known to do that--but if they did--it was not by nearly as much IMHO.

 

The second of the two back 16Ms in that photo also just sold after being on the market at local dealer's consignment since last winter. I heard that after over half a year the owner tired of the wait and sold directly to the local dealer near $200k. Leather on seats bolsters, $40k worth of CF, 5k Miles, excellent condition.

 

Where did you get your 178? Demand for the Superamerica and 16 M wouldn't necessarily be the same. I would bet the 16 M would have much higher demand and thus higher production numbers.

The point is that they have gone over the stated limited run on every model since the F40. It's the reason why each plaque reads 1 of XXX instead of numbering every one individually. Michael Sheehan's math is not precise down to the exact number but historically has proven to be in the ball park. It might not be well over 700 units but it should be within the ballpark. Even if it is 650, that's a lot more than the promised 499. He is also part of the group of VIN collectors who track this kind of stuff down to individual cars. In the long run, he might prove to be correct

 

This statement is the wild card here, most of the people on here calling death on 16m/scud value don't realize the longer the 16m/scud is out the more people realize how amazing the car really is and Ferrari made a very special car here, this will be the reason it holds value, then to add in fact it is marked to celebrate F1 championship (increasing any cars pedigree) and was limited to 500 ish units, will also help.

In all seriousness scuds and 16m are going on 3 years with holding the same value.

Wonder what happens to the value in a few years when all the 2nd and 3rd buyers of scuds and 16m refuse to resale haha.

 

This might be a little bit of wishful thinking. the base MSRP was a little over $313,000. Looking at the available listings online today, the average asking price is around $250,000 (even though Ferrari market letter claims it to be around $235,000). That would mean it has depreciated around $63,000 over 3 years, that's not exactly holding the same value. And those are just asking prices, actual sales figures are even lower than that. Following the asking prices on a monthly basis since initial sales, depreciation has slowed down greatly but still hasn't completely stopped. Due to its “limited” nature it should hold its value better than regular production cars but it probably won't ever be a prized jewel for collectors such as Enzo era cars or even the flagship limited cars. If it depreciates too much, it may sometimes bounce back a little bit but I doubt it will ever be a great investment. To me, it's simply a great looking and driving car that offers some exclusivity apart from the regular spider and will probably hold its value better over time. That's what I would buy it for but I wouldn't be shocked if after several years, it was valued at a bit less than what I paid.

 

Damn son, I never claimed it would increase in value like an enzo??

In regards to 3 year price, yes as q real owner (not a sideline guy reading) what I paid 3 years ago is basically what they are going for today, you speak of the price from new which is pretty much 5 years ago? not the last 3 years as I expressed, yes it's no secret these cars dropped heavy in the first 2 years but since that point (the last 3 years as I said) the prices are pretty much the same.

A car that sells for 210k 3 years ago now going for 195k is basically the same.

We are not talking about Toyota corollas here. I always find it funny how so many so called ferrari buyers complain and whine over 5k or 10k hahah your buying a 200k car like 10k is make or break?

That is like saying you are looking at a used toyota for 19995.00 but refuse to pay anything over 19500.00?? I don't get the logic.

Again no where in my post did I state these 16m cars are going up in value like an enzo, I was just pointing out they have not dropped to under 200k like some market readers pointed out. If you read my post I made it clear they ARE HOLDING VALUE never said increase, I guess if it's OK for some users to make things up like 16m trading under 200k, it certainly is not wrong for me as a REAL owner to chime in and suggest that prices on 16m are pretty much the same for last 2 to 3 years, is it?

 

Clearly there are massive differences between countries with the 16M. UK prices are now 10% higher than they were 3 years ago - so just to repeat, 10% gain in 3 years!
MSRP was £200k, last 3 sold this summer went for £185k (selling price not asking). £15k drop from new in 4 years is pretty good. However we only have 37 cars so that is the difference compared to the US.

 

calm down bro. Perhaps I am a “sideline guy” as I am typing this but the reason I came up with these numbers is because I have been researching the car and its market history for the past couple months because I'm looking to buy it very soon. Yes, you as an owner have a very specific number regarding the one you bought which in that case makes your particular situation true. Though, as with all statistics, that could also be a bit of an outlier and not necessarily reflect the averages. Again, not saying that's necessarily the case, just the possibility. Also, I didn't discard your post as “wrong”, I merely stated that I thought it might be a bit optimistic, especially regarding the future.

regarding the last 3 years as opposed to MSRP, the figures I found were that the asking price in August 2010 was a little over $300,000. So if average asking now is 250,000, that is still a $50,000 difference. Not the 5-10 K Toyota money (I was never talking about Toyota Corollas either). While to some buyers, $10,000 on a $200,000 car is no big deal, to others it might be. Every situation is different and if a particular buyer believes the asking price on a particular car is already higher than it should be, 10K might just be the deal breaker.


Regarding the appreciation of other collectibles and Enzo's, this was just me making a comment. it wasn't related to anything you posted specifically.


Finally, I never said it was wrong for you to chime in and say anything you want. That's entire point of a forum, just as there's nothing wrong with me commenting on your post. Obviously, the existing owner of a car prefers its market value to hold strong while potential buyers would rather it depreciate before their purchase. Right now, as a potential buyer, I'm looking for the market to drop. I'm sure as soon as I buy, I'll cross my fingers that it holds strong though, as I said before, I wouldn't be surprised if it continued dropping some.