Does mileage affect resale value of a Ferrari more than a Porsche?

Yes

 

I've wondered this myself so I decided to do a little research. I looked up the asking prices on the DuPont Registry of 4 models, 2 Porsches and 2 Ferraris, and did a statistical regression of those prices against the mileage of each car. From this I could get an average $ per mile for each model. This method ignores such things as options and the difference between asking and selling prices. One can assume that these affects are just noise.

I picked somewhat arbitrarily the 2008 Porsche 911GT2 (7 examples), the 2012 Porsche 911 Turbo S Cab (7 examples), the 2008 Ferrari F430 Spider (24 examples), and the 2010 Ferrari 458 Italia (32 examples).

Here are the results:
2008 Porsche 911GT2 (mileage range 38 to 15950 miles): $1.33 per mile
2012 Porsche 911 Turbo S cab (mileage range 2346 to 16000 miles): $1.08 per mile
2008 Ferrari F430 Spider (mileage range 3400 to 16100 miles): $1.86 per mile
2010 Ferrari 458 Italia (mileage range 1788 to 27500 miles): $1.28 per mile

So there actually isn't a whole lot of difference in either the range of miles of the cars offered for sale or in their average "cost" per mile. This may reflect the more recent Ferraris being used more for daily drivers than previous models.

 

Great analysis!

My opinion is that the 458's are going to set new levels of "normal mileage". The reliability and daily driver ability are going to make 8k to 10k miles per year "normal".

Those that just put 1k or so miles a year on their 458 might get another $5k but lost $50k in life enjoyment IMO. Very false economics after dropping $270k+ on something to "enjoy".

 

Yes. I thought it was interesting that some of the 458s for sale had higher mileage than any of 2-year older F430s.

 

Yes, but it depends how late in production it is. Miles were cheaper in 2010 than in 2014, and of course, the more you drive it the lower the cost per mile.

Also depends where you live. Higher miles are much more common in Europe and ROW, so I would expect there to be more impact in the US.

Fortunately that seems to be changing with exotics now that these cars are bullet proof way beyond what people use them for and people are starting to realize that. You could probably buy 30-40K miles on 458 without anything other than consumables. Hell, you could probably put 100K on one without breaking anything if used and maintained reasonably well.

 

I agree completely. The 458 just begs to be driven and I love to accommodate it.

 

+458

I have put on 10k miles in 5 months and loved every one.

Warranty says unlimited miles. I believe it.

 

Don't you need to compare each car individually to show how milage affects the value of the car? i.e a low milage GT2 vs a high milage GT2 and so on?
Calculating the average of the two doesn't show you how much more you loose if you drive the car more.

Example:

1000mile Porsche - $20/mile in depriciation
10000mile Porsche - $5/mile
Average - $12.5/mile

1000mile Ferrari - $10/mile
10000mile Ferrari - $15/mile
Average - $12.5/mile

Assuming both cars are the same model year.


The average cost/mile is the same for both cars but you loose a lot more in the Ferrari if you put big miles on it vs the Porsche.

Does this make sense to anyone but me?.. I've been known to find pretty creative solutions in math class (most of which turned out to be VERY wrong), so if you're sitting in your chair laughing at my attempt here then go easy on me in your reply, ok?

 

That's not totally accurate either because it depends on the model year of each car and how far into the production life it is.

A 3K miles 2014 coupe will see brutal cost per mile in 2014 compared to a 7K mile 2010 coupe in 2011.

 

So just keep it and drive it more!

 

Yes I agree, but since Noblesse Oblige's stats were from specific model years it's not relevant here.

 

The model used is:
Depreciation = (Depreciation at Zero miles) plus (Cost per mile) x miles.

The analysis generated the best fit to both parameters: (Depreciation at zero miles) and (cost per mile).

The numbers I posted represent the best fit to the data for the cost per mile, which I called the "average" cost per mile. I should not have used the word average because that was misleading. It is really the additional depreciation from driving the car, above and beyond the depreciation from just HAVING the car.

Hope this helps.

 

I think that's right. So I chose a Porsche and Ferrari from 2008, and a Ferrari from 2010 but went off the rails a bit with the Porsche from 2012. To do it right one should compare only Porsches and Ferraris from the same year.

 

From a statistical point of view this model really isn't much help. It doesn't take into account a lot of other variables that factor into depreciation. A big one is region. In an area where there are less 458s the cars will depreciate slower. Also options do tend to matter. More common and desirability options will cause the car to depreciate slower. Another thing is paint colors and interior colors. Also perception of the car which would be extremely hard to find a proxy variable for but we could use instruments of our current variables to make the model unbiased. Plus you need a larger sample size. I would take all ferraris from 2000+ and compare them to all lamborghinis,porsche,aston martin, and maserati from the same time period to do a good analysis There are other things too, but here a some just to name a few.

 

All this is right. To do it right, you would need a much broader and larger sample, and try to control for other variables such as region and options. It is a fairly large project. Still it is interesting that a quick and dirty sampling did not show a huge difference among these 4 exotics and "semi-exotics." They suggested a cost of between $1 and $2 per mile.

 

All good discussion, but IMO a little rear looking to consider how (or if) the 458 will be any different or more like Porsche in the future.

There is some implication Ferrari is different due to a traditional reliability deficit - I don't think this is right, the vast majority of the cost per mile is not due to real costs (costs due to unreliability) at all - but due to the way the market prices time and mileage depreciation for itself.

I think the prime factor is simply the way Ferrari sells cars and manages their market vs. other brands. For current production cars, a large percentage are sold with the clear intent that they will be used for a short time and then resold by the dealers - this provides a larger pool of very low mileage used cars right off the bat that need to find homes. I think this pressures all owners to keep low mileages as they need their cars to compete with the large volume of planned reselling that goes on.

Additionally, as a more extreme line of vehicles (either in fact or by public perception) the usage is going to be less on average at any time than less extreme vehicles, giving the same low mile bias.

So, WRT to the 458 - for it to be more like Porsche we need to ask - does the 458 have more in common with Porsche then previous models in terms of the market and how it runs ? I don't think so, the planned churn between Italia, spider, speciale is proceeding apace and will exert the traditional bias to low miles in the market IMO.

For Ferrari as a whole, the good performance of the DD oriented cars will I think help to at least lessen the factor given to reliability, and promote more usage, but I still think the sales dynamics are the bigger factor.

 

That is absolutely amazing that you have driven it so much!!! Really glad to see other 458s being used. I thought I was one of the ones that use it the most with 3500 miles in one month, but you have blown that out of the water (I wont be averaging that - just a very busy month).

With regards to unlimited miles it is for the 4 year period right? To extend warranty there is a limit on the entry miles for powercube warranty etc right? - I think it is 90,000 miles to qualify? Do not know how long you were planning on keeping the 458...but so so good to see you driving it so much! Keep it up!

Best regards

Sunny

 

As a person who truly enjoys driving (its my therapy), I have a 4 month old 458 with 7,800 miles and a 2012 911 cab with 14,000....its a question of Return on Living (ROL), vs. Return on Investment (ROI).

Each of us defines our own enjoyment in life drivers....worrying about depreciation does not factor into my consideration. Life is too short.

We all have our reasons why we chose to make the decision to own a very privileged and expensive car(s). I get that depreciation costs are real, but ask yourself are you being fair allowing depreciation concerns to steal spontaneous moments of driving joy....that you can't get back? I look at my cars are ROL, not ROI....

....just my personal perspective. The net net is we are all very fortunate, don't forget that....

 

Very well said. These cars are mass produced whether is a super low mileage, or "normal" mileage, we are not talking break the bank numbers.

 

Yes, but also depends on the model and provenance of vehicle too.

 

I wish I could have this mentality. All I think about is 1k miles there goes 10k, 1k miles, there goes another 10k, 5k miles oh there goes 30k. All down the drain. Maybe as super cars become more and more DD friendly this low mileage nonsense will be over with soon since everyone thinks the car is going to break after 10k miles.

 

Want to talk about money going down the drain literally, ask yourself how much you spend on nice meals or a nice bottle of wine, we all know where the proceeds will end up. How about exotic vacations? This is money you will never recoup, yet you do it because you enjoy it. If you dissect happiness it ends up being a hapless mess. Does it cost to own these luxuries, well of course, that is why we are so privileged to be able to do so.

I love it when I hear how some use there cars or make them such a personal extension of themselves like 458Trofeo. I can't wait till mine arrives for me to enjoy it! Whether I am out on a spirited drive or just admitting the lines while it sits in the garage. It means something to me and that's all that matters. I know I will lose money but I will replace it with something much more important, my happiness.

 

Sorry for spelling/word errors autocorrect kills me, anyway I took some of my savings to get Hooked on Phonics on DVD so I should be good to go next week!

 

The "region" may be relevant from a sellers point of view but the average price is available to the buyer. At the end of the day, a Ferrari probably depreciates more for one simple reason, it costs more to begin with. As both a TurboS and 458 owner, I subscribe to the axiom that "saving" a car bought for pleasure, is akin to "saving" a beautiful woman for the next guy to enjoy. You can save money by not spending it and buy a car magazine as you would a magazine like Playboy or Hustler, and do the same thing you might do with one of these (lol). Otherwise, cover the odometer and enjoy. Best