is the bubble due to burst?

Okay maybe I went a little over board. The closed HL cars are more desirable and bring more. But if PF Cab's ser 1 cars are bringing $6-7MM how do you figure a LWB California is worth the same? IMO if that blue car with it's BWM 507 hard top came up for sale at Gooding last August it would bring $10-12MM all day. What's $4 or 5MM between friendly buyers these days?

Geno

 

Open Headlights vs Closed Headlights is a HUGE value-determinant with Spider Californias (LWB and SWB alike), everything else being equal. I don't believe a Spider California LWB with Open Headlights (and early body features, drum brakes and an inside plug motor) is worth significantly more than a PF Cab I with Covered Headlights, especially wearing front bumperettes rather than a wraparound front bumper.

 

I personally would take a PF I over a same price open headlamp spider

 

Everyone knows the series I PF cab with closed headlights and bumperettes is the best looking car in the history of road going (not race) cars...
Or maybe that's just my opinion. In either case I concur with the sentiment but will not be voting with my wallet.

 

Sell 200 April at one-forty-two!

 

FJ just "priced reduced" the blue gtc on offer...let's see if others follow suit..."heading to the exits"


Jack

 

The asking price was at lofty $850K now $795K for a car that not a very best example as the ones bringing the top dollar have recently. What's your point?

 

not saying that certain sectors do not give the appearance to be frothy, bubbles are NOT necessarily about the price of an underlying collector object... one cannot simply point to a particular object ( model or class of car etc ) and make a global determination about values. Historic bubble collapses all had an element of over extended use of credit. Credit mandates liquidity... bubbles collapse due to lack of liquidity and credit ( demand )... current global credit availability is very scarce... it's not saying that values cannot make adjustments or that collectors won't lose money... collectors are paying in full for their purchases, taking out the need for the "herd" ( collectors ) to stampede for the exits to cover their over extended non existent credit lines by selling. The ever higher prices paid show dilution in the value of currency, not a bubble in car prices.

 

It looks like there were 3 330 GTCs sold at the August auctions, 2 in the $600k range and 1 in the $800k range, so, FJ just has it overpriced from the beginning.

 

Agreed, well put......

A few active issues regarding how many bubbles in the ''Classic Car Champagne'' : Of all the ''Great Cars'' in the world - there are no more than 1,000, and now you can maybe add to that another 1,000 cars that have grown into that ''Legend League''. Figure 2,000 Great cars, total. In 1986, Tom Barrett called that shot, later repeated by what would be a string of mercenaries now called experts.

A 330 GTC , a Gullwing or a Dino are the very cars that construe the bubbles out there. Demand is driven by what people can afford now -hence many more millionaires needing a reason to park money, Earned Money- not borrowed money, into cars that appear to trade easy at a fixed recordable level.

When Grandmothers are buying Gullwings and GTC type cars, corrections are part of the cycle and will be predictable. Any collector out there in the current marketplace is not the collector of 25 years ago - the selection decisions are coming from close-personal relationship with Auction companies, dealers, and ''experts'' and the ''buyer'' who know a scant overview on historical importance and model desirability. Many of ''those buyers'' are driving the market because you can make a profit on a purchase, as you can with anything if you are pound wise.

As the currencies swing with market corrections, you'll see currency adjustments in the price of cars as they move back and forth between countries, that's always been the case. No one can call what will happen next, simply because the factors that make up the ''new world'' order have not Jelled into something that we're used to, or even can understand now.

In general, and globally, the dust will take a few years to settle to realize a sensible prediction on what is the ''norm''. Until then, prices will not drop as there are few choices of safety with ''parking'' money into unknown tradition banking products and investments as we knew them 15 years ago.

Tangible investments, such as great cars and legendary Ferraris are becoming more exceedingly desirable and pleasurable to own as they have a social life attached in addition to bragging rights. Not many things equal a Ferrari's WOW factor in anyone's ''Network'' of the Big ''I Am''.

As the world spins with so many more people making more and more money with no real identities, a Ferrari looks like a good reliable bet on profit, personal recognition and fulfillment of a reward from being successful. The pride of ownership becomes a part of the ''keeper'' mentality , an attachment of personal worth, with the object, hence less great cars on the market. Supply and demand kicks in as the world re-shapes itself.

 

I still consider that there could still be a major market correction, if 1991 - 1994 was anything to go by although countering that it must be admitted that in 1990 the market was made up of equal parts collectors and speculators. There was also a resurgence of other investment categories that had people heading back to the stock market rather than investing in classic automobiles. Post GFC we haven't seen a major drop in the stock market so your average investor isn't going to be suddenly selling to re-invest in stocks but maybe the opposite could happen whereby the stock market could have a major correction over the next year or two? That could lead to even the super-wealthy divesting anything liquid?.

The market is much more intelligent nowadays which provides some security, there is a true pecking order and potential buyers will generally do sufficient research to understand why a GTO, Bugatti Royale or Mercedes SSK are at the pinnacle and will spend accordingly. That sort of buyer is going to buy smart and invest smart and it wont matter what their car collection is worth because it isn't going to be sold and besides they have bought the pinnacle and it will always be worth an x times multiple of a lesser car, relatively. These purchasers are your Ralph Laurens and Jon Shirleys of this world.

At the other end there are still speculators and they are now joined by a small number of investment collectives and they will very much care. And below the pinnacle there is a lot of dross that might already be hugely over-valued, rising ships and all that only accounts for so much and it could very well be a grand game of musical chairs. The mid 2000s Muscle car bubble is the perfect example.

What will be very interesting is the generation change the market will take when it moves from the "old" classics such as 1930s and earlier to a newer market such as 1970s or even 1980s. This trend is already occurring with Periscopo Countach and rare Japanese exotica from the 1970s suddenly showing massive value increases, todays 40 - 50 year olds wanting the dreamcar's of their youth. These younger purchasers don't have any direct connection to cars that are 50+ years old and may or may not begin collecting them to the same level as their forbearer's. And this will play out because a lot of the traditional collectors are now in their 70s and 80s and upon their death only some of the inheritors of these collections will want to retain them.

Scottsdale is less than 12 weeks away and will be an interesting watch.

 

Timmy: Interesting comments. I agree with your observations regarding "generational collecting". However, I would point out that as the current generation of collectors of 1920-30s cars are passing, the new buyers are younger enthusiasts who view certain cars from that era as "industrial art". As such, Duesenbergs, Marmon Sixteens, certain high-end Packard's, etc, will remain valuable, but for a different reason than being the "unattainable" teenage car of a certain generation. Cars like Ford Model A, 1930s Hudson's, Nashes, etc. will stay flat or struggle in the marketplace. Eventually, the same thing will happen to the cars of the 1950-60s. Ferrari's will stay valuable, but Triumph TR-3's will stay flat. By the way, owners of cars mentioned in my post, do not threaten me with bodily harm! I just used these makes to illustrate my point.

 

Randy those sold for that, but you left out the 2 330 GTCs that traded for just over $1MM on the same weekend. They were both fresh cars with high end restorations. It's easy to see the range for the GTC is $650-$1MM.

Geno

 

Your quote "heading to the exits" is thoughtful conversation? This means you have a prediction on future lower values for the GTC? What will they be heading too than?

Geno


QUOTE=300GW/RO;143431146]

 

as applies to a potential general trend....you too must be aware of this "economic slang"; "when the music dies", "last in, first out"....you get the picture.

My post was not model-specific, simple rumination on the threads theme..."a shot across the bow" if you will for a lower pricing reality as this was the first "mark-down" for a red-hot brand (and model) that I have come across....

I have ZERO future prediction or influence, just like you, with this market. Simply an observation.

Now, let's see if more "price reductions" take place,

Jack

 

which auction house had the 2 over $1m?

 

check bonhams or rm results.

 

If cars are being bough not on finance, thne yes its not abubble because people can and will hold. Markets do correct thogh, so at some point there will be a flattening and even a 20% correction till the next cycle.

Within that certain fcars will reindex to collectable staus, like dinos and latterly boxers have, other fcars which like 550's were being lifted by the tide may sink back.

This is of course ferraris we are talkign about. Undoubtably some ferraris are collectable indstrial art regardless of era as are bugattis etc, nothing to do with generational desire.(we can debate the future collectability of new build ferraris a sperate subject)

With global economic growth, there are going to be more buyers, and they dont make new old cars.

Actualy they do now, you can get nut and bolt repro 250 series fcars for $1million, but that is a whole other subject and does not affect old builds with provenance.

Whatever the case, prices cant and wont rise forever, but that does not necessarily mean a crash.

 

I believe we are in a bubble. There has been no expansion in manufacturing ( other than the Fed printing more more money) and a eye-opening correction will take place. I think this will be a worldwide phenomena as currencies across the board are inflated to unrealistic levels. Look at the disparity between the Euro and the USD. The Euro started out at par with the USD and now is trading in the range of 33% higher. This does not make much sense when the US is shoring up the world.
Realizing this economic correction is on the horizon, I would like to extend an offer of 150k to anyone wanting to sell their Lusso now. This may be your last good opportunity to come out of such a mundane and over-inflated toy.

 

I'll raise you by $10 Grand....

 

Bonhams is one and RM or Gooding the other...

 

10007 $1,017,500 Bonhams #274

10267 $1,023,000 RM #234

 

You may want to check the current exchange rates, the Euro and Sterling have been dropping against the USD. Right now the Euro is in the 1.25 to 1.26 range to the USD and going down. 6 months ago it was at 1.38.

 

The pure beauty in good hardware is: You can price that hardware in the best currency that suits the highest price - Euro, Dollar, Pound. Pick your currency without any adjustments figure by figure. The rest of the currencies follow those leaders.

It's a pity that Asia is a primitive automobile environment without a culture or taste for the best cars. There is so much opportunity for them to Westernize, and main stream. If they ever did, you would see GTC's at 2M.

In one week, you'll see all TRCs at 7M Euro, with the slight down shift in the Euro. Movement creates new records. Movement creates opportunity.