I don't things will tumble - however who thought oil would be a 5 handle? Anything that goes up like this stuff has should come back down, I also think lots of these cars in the 200-1mill + range have gone to buyers that if mkts correct they are going to get spooked. Then 10-20% + of owners will bring the cars to market to get liquid and the prices will drop fast. Also so many dealers are acting like MKT makers with these cars, just raising "asking prices" 20% and people are buying, time and time again. Silly IMHO if you are buying as an asset / store of value today or the last few years. Crazy times and I think crazy times will proceed rational times and rational thinking - Appreciation that has happened over the past few years is not realistic nor is it sustainable. If I could short this MKT today I would, a major correction is coming IMHO.
This market has many speculators and many collectors don't trade the cars, many great cars have been sold the last few years. So much of todays prices are simply "speculators". And if you take every model with more then 100 produced and say 10-20% are owners that "DO care" if the prices start falling and they proceed to sell cars - the prices will correct. I know 250 GTO owners are a well heeled bunch, however I'm sure 2-8 of them care that the cars are worth 35-55 Million. I also wouldn't be surprised that the majority don't really care what they are worth, they are late in life, make 50-500 million per year in passive income and aren't bothered by such trivial things as "how much is my enzo era car / car collection worth". However when that change happens - and it will MKTS always correct - when the 2-5 GTO's go on the market for those owners that DO care about sitting on a 35-55 Million car what will they be worth? Forget about the "massed produced" cars with over 500 production. My crystal ball has broken long ago, and all in IMHO - however this MKT is outrageous, preposterous, and simply absurd.
The high end art mkt is dominated by money laundering and russian oligarchs - how do you think the upcoming auctions will fair?
On what facts is your 10-20% based off of? Everyone I know that is buying cars loves the cars they are buying and is a collector. Collectors do sell and like to try different cars on occasion. I realize this argument will just go in circles and so I am looking for someone with facts on how many cars they sell go to collectors vs otherwise.
The numbers are pure speculation - I know collectors sell, I sell often. No one has real numbers, this MKT people only have opinions - its based on emotion and heard mentality. My opinion is the MKT will correct, and correct significantly. EU is going into a recession, Japan is in one, Russia raised rates TODAY TO 17%! Oil is headed to 4 handle and possibly 3 handle, our equity mkts are are based on a house of cards at a FED rate of 0%. You really think these cars are going to remain at todays levels when many have gone up 400-500% in the last 6 to 8 years with whats going on in the world?
You really think these cars are going to remain at todays levels when many have gone up 400-500% in the last 6 to 8 years with whats going on in the world?[/QUOTE] Please read my previous posts from yesterday. As far as values, I can only speak to what I know, which is late 60s to early 80s mid engine "supercars" ie Miuras, Mangustas, BBs, Boras, CTs, 930s etc. For these cars, the correction has occurred in that values are now in line with where these cars should be valued. I do believe these are the cars that the next generation of collector, such as myself will covet. The price at which they were trading even 18 months ago are laughable when you consider what the equivalent would buy you in say the American Muscle car market. The cars that I have personal knowledge of that have traded in this category have been purchased by collectors whether they have entered the market 10 months or 10 years ago. We have not seen a flood of inventory with these cars and many of the cars that I have purchased were from 20-30 year owners who simply can't enjoy these cars the way they used to and not from speculators looking to cash in.
Please read my previous posts from yesterday. As far as values, I can only speak to what I know, which is late 60s to early 80s mid engine "supercars" ie Miuras, Mangustas, BBs, Boras, CTs, 930s etc. For these cars, the correction has occurred in that values are now in line with where these cars should be valued. I do believe these are the cars that the next generation of collector, such as myself will covet. The price at which they were trading even 18 months ago are laughable when you consider what the equivalent would buy you in say the American Muscle car market. The cars that I have personal knowledge of that have traded in this category have been purchased by collectors whether they have entered the market 10 months or 10 years ago. We have not seen a flood of inventory with these cars and many of the cars that I have purchased were from 20-30 year owners who simply can't enjoy these cars the way they used to and not from speculators looking to cash in.[/QUOTE] We will see, I could be wrong - I'm often wrong.
Who are the future collectors? When the internal combustion engine is over taken by the next big inovation (and it's coming faster then we think) who is gonna pay 50 million bucks in future dollars for a car they can't even drive anymore or in most cases won't know how to drive. "3 pedals? Stick shift?" What on earth? Where do I plug in my phone?
It won't kill it - but it will effect it, greatly. I'm 40 and the oldest Ferrari I would consider would be a 512 Tr. Driving vintage Ferrari's is simply boring and like driving a bad truck(for most in my generation, I know you old guys love em and rightfully so as they had been icons as u grew up) I was going to buy a 512bbi last year, had the deal done - then I drove it. I was shocked at how bad it drove, coming from a guy that has/ had mostly modern f cars, Porsche and a Ford GT s sprinkled in. My father loves Ford Thunderbirds and when I see one I see a 1k car. My father in law loves planes, he loves mustangs a and old prop planes - u know what I'm saying.
35 to 45s only have a fraction of the nations wealth - do you have any idea how much more money the 50 to 60 yr old crowd has?
I do. I'm highly educated on private wealth in the USA, I'm talking generations down the road. I'm also talking about desirability, that has nothing to do with wealth and affordability. From what I have seen of your collection, I would have to say I could only dream of it.
current demographics + wealth distribution is a great backdrop for 1950 to 2000 ferraris for the next 25 to 50 years - so long as we look and feel like Japan - and then some. oil stays down here for long and tesla will be a zero
That's the key right there. Desirability. Who would have ever thought Ferrari would only offer thier cars with an automatic?
Cars far more primitive are still loved by people who weren't born when they were made. If something is cool once odds are that someone will always find it so. Prewar Duesenburgs, Bugattis, Alfa's etc. all bring big money.
The duesenburgs don't bring the money they used to. Only some Bugatti models bring the big bucks, but not all (relatively speaking). There will always be buyers for these legends, but at what price. My feeling is far less then we think. Times are changing. People are changing.
I hope so! I'm 48, and I'd love to have a Duesenberg. Frankly, I'd like to have a Cord 812 Phaeton, but those don't seem to be getting any cheaper either.
Markets change over time but old cars are still a very popular hobby. At shows I see a lot of interest among the young. While some of the classics might not bring the numbers they once did (and many are at peak value now) the demand is strong. Duesies, Bugs and Alfas all find ready buyers unless offered at fantasy prices. A big driver of value are historic events. Cars eligible for the MM, the London Brighton run, various vintage racing series and the prestigious shows bring strong numbers. Like the horse the use may change but the popularity remains.
Agree. I'm 40 and can appreciate theses cars, but can the 20 something's. It's old school to them. They wanna hit a button and the car unlocks. They don't wanna turn an ignition key and pump the gas. Different worlds completely.
My thoughts are in regard to the rapid increase in prices. I Feel prices should correct and come back down and the bubble will burst....... Say return to prices around 2008? I also feel these cars will always have collectors. Time will tell.
What is most likely to happen from here is the same thing that happens in every market. We are likely at the very end of the initial phase of the bull run where pretty much anything and everything went up a great deal from 2005 prices regardless of how significant the car really is. The next 5 years in my opinion will just be different, or a more rational environment where every car does not have to rise. I think some will , some will fall, and many will be flat. My guess is cars like some aston martins, maybe db4/db5, or a porsche 959, or some other cars that have been undervalued relative to the rest of the market maybe they go up 5-10% a year for a few years. No reason during that time that a car like a dino maybe will just stay flat, and maybe some cars like 70’s/80’s porsche 911 cars which are so mass produced and have seen massive gains of late maybe could go down a little. Maybe Ferrari 250/275 cars go flat for a while, I think in 3 years you will still be able to buy the best 300sl gullwing for $2mln just as you can today. This type of price movement if I am correct will be fairly healthy for the market there would be nothing wrong with it. I think it will be much more of “stock picking” or “car picking” market where not everything will go up, that is much different from saying there needs to be a crash. Bottom line over the past 5 years it felt like there was a rush to get a car as it always felt like it would just cost more in 6 months when you found another so you felt pressured to buy now. Today’s highs have been tomorrow lows. While I am not predicting a crash I simply think that environment will change and there is no rush for the most part. My other prediction over the next few years is the premium will expand for totally original unrestored cars over the same make and model that is restored. I am not talking about the rusted out **** box “barn find” which I think has been taken way to the extreme like the black gullwing that sold this summer for around 2mln that I would not let my dog take a **** in. I am talking about just nice original well maintained cars. I have a 74 Dino GTS chairs and flares with very low miles , good color combo, and it is 100% original never painted/restored etc. I don't expect prices to go up much or at all for dinos in next few years but I do think that whatever the market is today for my car vs a restored car of same year make model I think the spread will change more so in favor of the original car as time goes on. I think more people will realize and appreciate the fact that you can only be original once and you can pretty much always get a restored car as just buy one and restore it. As time goes on there will always be fewer and fewer original nice cars.
