Ferrari exlcusivity questioned

Noblesse Oblige · Dec 24, 2014

The Wall Street Journal has this feature today. So the question of the impact of Marchionne's expansion plans now has the attention of big media:

Will Ferrari Keep Its Scarcity Premium?
Sports-Car Maker Considers Cranking Up Output Even as Wait Times Fall
Ferrari customers typically have to wait for the arrival of the car they purchased.
By
Eric Sylvers
Dec. 24, 2014 2:05 p.m. ET
4 COMMENTS

In 2006, William Wade drove to a Ferrari dealer in Atlanta and put down a deposit on the purchase of a $200,000 Ferrari 430. Mr. Wade returned home for a wait of almost a year before his red sports car finally arrived.

The experience once was typical for Ferrari owners. The Italian car maker has capped production of its extravagantly expensive cars at about 7,000 vehicles a year, helping fuel an aura of exclusivity and price.

The wait was long, but thats what you do if you want a new Ferrari, said Mr. Wade, a 40-year-old importer of exotic wood who drove his new car to a nearby restaurant to celebrate its arrival with friends.

Buyers willing to put up with waits that in the past have averaged more than a year is unusual for its industry but allows Ferrari to use rarity to secure top prices. Limited edition Ferraris such as the LaFerrari can fetch up to $1 million.

Those days may be winding down. Ferrari Chairman Sergio Marchionne wants to expand production, arguing a surge in emerging-market wealth justifies higher output. Mr. Marchionne has hinted that yearly production could go to 10,000 vehicles without denting Ferraris scarcity value, its cars $250,000 average sale price or the companys bottom line. Ferrari last year sold 6,922 cars, which helped generate 2.3 billion ($2.80 billion) in revenue and 364 million in operating profit.

The risk is higher production collides with a sales slowdown. In China, for instance, a decade of explosive growth in luxury goods has petered out. The waiting time for a new Ferrari there has remained about a year, according to local dealers, despite a sharp rise in the number of millionaires. In the U.S., some dealers say they can sell a new Ferrari off the showroom floor.

In China, Ferrari has been particularly careful in managing the waiting list because buyers there are less wedded to the Ferrari brand, according to a person familiar with the companys thinking. If the list gets too short, the brand could quickly lose cachet, but at the same time, Chinese are less willing to wait for a new car than their western counterparts. The waiting list in most of China has stagnated at about a year, according to local dealers, despite the fact that the number of Chinese millionaires has soared, rising 60% to 2.4 million in the past year alone, according to The Boston Consulting Group.

Maintaining a scarcity premium is critical to Ferraris 90% owner Fiat Chrysler Automobiles NV, which is preparing an initial public offering of its iconic unit. The business has been valued by analysts at between 4 billion to 8 billion, a wide range that reflects a debate over whether it should be considered a luxury-goods company, as Mr. Marchionne believes, or a high-end car brand like Porsche, as most analysts say.

If exclusivity becomes unreachable, it is no longer exclusivity, said Mr. Marchionne, who is also chief executive of Fiat Chrysler. The auto maker is in the early days of a five-year product overhaul that is expected to cost $60 billion. Lets not fool ourselves here. We are in business to supply cars to people, he said.

Ferrari has declined to comment on how many more cars it might produce.

The caps on production, which dates back decades, helps stoke sales of Ferrari-branded jackets, shirts and posters and tickets to the Ferrari World theme park in Abu Dhabi. It also plays an important role in keeping prices of used Ferraris high, a major selling point. Nine of the top 10 most expensive cars sold at auction in the past year were Ferraris, including a 1962 250 GTO that in August went for a record $38 million.

Ferrari is the absolute blue chip in collectible cars, said Adolfo Orsi Jr. , a historian of Italian motor sport who co-authors the Classic Car Auction Yearbook. The brand and the exclusivity it comes with wont come under threat if production is raised to 10,000 cars a year. But the key is not to overdo it.

But slack demand in some key markets including the U.S., which accounts for a third of Ferrari sales, illustrates how tricky it could be for Mr. Marchionne to lift production. At Ferrari of New England near Boston, five-year waits common before the 2008 economic downturn have disappeared and there are Ferraris in the showroom for the first time since 1991, said Ernie Boch Jr. , the dealerships owner.

In Milan, where the wait time is down to a few months from as long as three years previously, the citys only dealership is smarting because customers now want a discount.

At the end of the day a Ferrari is like any other car: the buyer asks for a discount and you negotiate, said Lorenzo Carraro, the head of marketing for dealer Rossocorsa Srl. If theres a long waiting list, the discount shrinks and sometimes disappears altogether.

Fiat Chrysler will sell 10% of Ferrari in an IPO next year, seeking to unlock the value of the sports-car brand. Heres a look at some notable Ferrari models over the years.

In emerging markets, demand hasnt surged as much as overall wealth. In Hong Kong, Joseph Ngai, general brand manager for Auto Italia Ltd., said demand has been steady over the past five years despite a boom in the luxury market there.

Some say an increase in production would require new models, such as a sport-utility vehicle, a move that could dilute Ferraris cachet.

There are risks to any expansion plan, said Abbas Ali Quettawala, an analyst with Bernstein Research in London. Its entirely possible for Ferrari to produce and sell more cars. The question is how [Mr. Marchionne] does that and what it means for profitability.

Christina Rogers and John Revill contributed to this article.

Corrections & Amplifications

Ferraris operating profit was 364 million in 2013. An earlier version incorrectly said it was 364.

SoCal to az · Dec 24, 2014

There are 13 used 458s at Scottsdale ferrari. Good for the consumer who can negotiate. Good for the dealer who has more cars to sell. Good for ferrari as they increase production by 3k cars and make more money. Why is this a bad thing?

Noblesse Oblige · Dec 24, 2014

Not bad at all. Ten years ago a friend of mine ordered a 360. After a year of waiting he gave up. That is crazy. But last year I ordered an FF in August. It was produced in November and here in January. I have no problem with that. And used market supply and demand will operate. All the better.

But if they overproduce and demand is not enough to support production, the brand will lose its position. And that will be bad for all of us.

Does anyone trust Marchionne to manage the balance properly?

U-Boat Commander · Dec 24, 2014

As long as Ferrari does not make an SUV, the cachet will remain if they make 10K cars/yr.

Caeruleus11 · Dec 24, 2014

They should know what they are doing but with losing LdM they lost someone who really knew what he was doing. SM's comment that they are in the business of selling cars would be frightening to me if I were a shareholder because they are not in that business. Cars are really just transport. Honda, Toyota, GM, even BMW and Mercedes do that. Ferrari is selling dreams. SM ignores this fact at great risk. Of course, all just MHO.

TheMayor · Dec 24, 2014

The problem is a lot of used F cars are piling up.

When the 308 came out, there still were not a lot of older Ferrari's around. Then they brought in the TR, which expanded the market beyond 308.

Then the 348, 355, and especially with the 360 and F430 they added another 40K cars into the US market -- a lot of them still around. Exclusivity for sure dropped after the 360 run because you see an F car much more often than before.

But, you have to put things into perspective. Chevy made over 30K Corvette C7's in 2014. In 5 years, that will be over 100K. So it depends on what number you consider "exclusive".

I think Maserati will eat into some CA sales when the new Alfieri comes out. Sure, its only a V6 turbo but it's sexy as heck and will be a lot cheaper. After all, how many Italian sports cars and Gt's can you sell?

RBK · Dec 24, 2014

Of course Supply/Demand (no matter how you slice it). An oversimplification to be sure.

Is it really a matter of numbers?

Believing what many have said, the Ferrari "automobile" is viewed as superior in its own right when compared to competitors, irrespective of cache, panache, mystique, etc.. So, if the car itself is a "winner", how many are willing to pay how much for what number of cars?

I suspect we all agree the market place is expanding. All things being equal, this would allow for higher production with minimal impact. However, as pointed out there are cultural differences which cannot be ignored. The buying "experience" may mean more or less to different people. I wonder how many like the idea that no one can get a Ferrari for months at a time and the dealership has few if any on display (except of course the person looking for one today)?

Is it really that simple, all that matters is the car is superior? What if part of the psychological dynamic is we "feel" a bit "special"? How can this be diminished and does it matter when the time comes to write the check?

I see increasing numbers of Tesla's (for example) which makes me wonder what is the next most desirable car. Best

PhilNotHill · Dec 24, 2014

Noblesse Oblige said: ↑

The Wall Street Journal has this feature today. So the question of the impact of Marchionne's expansion plans now has the attention of big media:

Will Ferrari Keep Its Scarcity Premium?
Sports-Car Maker Considers Cranking Up Output Even as Wait Times Fall
Ferrari customers typically have to wait for the arrival of the car they purchased.
By
Eric Sylvers
Dec. 24, 2014 2:05 p.m. ET
4 COMMENTS

In 2006, William Wade drove to a Ferrari dealer in Atlanta and put down a deposit on the purchase of a $200,000 Ferrari 430. Mr. Wade returned home for a wait of almost a year before his red sports car finally arrived.

The experience once was typical for Ferrari owners. The Italian car maker has capped production of its extravagantly expensive cars at about 7,000 vehicles a year, helping fuel an aura of exclusivity and price.

The wait was long, but thats what you do if you want a new Ferrari, said Mr. Wade, a 40-year-old importer of exotic wood who drove his new car to a nearby restaurant to celebrate its arrival with friends.

Buyers willing to put up with waits that in the past have averaged more than a year is unusual for its industry but allows Ferrari to use rarity to secure top prices. Limited edition Ferraris such as the LaFerrari can fetch up to $1 million.

Those days may be winding down. Ferrari Chairman Sergio Marchionne wants to expand production, arguing a surge in emerging-market wealth justifies higher output. Mr. Marchionne has hinted that yearly production could go to 10,000 vehicles without denting Ferraris scarcity value, its cars $250,000 average sale price or the companys bottom line. Ferrari last year sold 6,922 cars, which helped generate 2.3 billion ($2.80 billion) in revenue and 364 million in operating profit.

The risk is higher production collides with a sales slowdown. In China, for instance, a decade of explosive growth in luxury goods has petered out. The waiting time for a new Ferrari there has remained about a year, according to local dealers, despite a sharp rise in the number of millionaires. In the U.S., some dealers say they can sell a new Ferrari off the showroom floor.

In China, Ferrari has been particularly careful in managing the waiting list because buyers there are less wedded to the Ferrari brand, according to a person familiar with the companys thinking. If the list gets too short, the brand could quickly lose cachet, but at the same time, Chinese are less willing to wait for a new car than their western counterparts. The waiting list in most of China has stagnated at about a year, according to local dealers, despite the fact that the number of Chinese millionaires has soared, rising 60% to 2.4 million in the past year alone, according to The Boston Consulting Group.

Maintaining a scarcity premium is critical to Ferraris 90% owner Fiat Chrysler Automobiles NV, which is preparing an initial public offering of its iconic unit. The business has been valued by analysts at between 4 billion to 8 billion, a wide range that reflects a debate over whether it should be considered a luxury-goods company, as Mr. Marchionne believes, or a high-end car brand like Porsche, as most analysts say.

If exclusivity becomes unreachable, it is no longer exclusivity, said Mr. Marchionne, who is also chief executive of Fiat Chrysler. The auto maker is in the early days of a five-year product overhaul that is expected to cost $60 billion. Lets not fool ourselves here. We are in business to supply cars to people, he said.

Ferrari has declined to comment on how many more cars it might produce.

The caps on production, which dates back decades, helps stoke sales of Ferrari-branded jackets, shirts and posters and tickets to the Ferrari World theme park in Abu Dhabi. It also plays an important role in keeping prices of used Ferraris high, a major selling point. Nine of the top 10 most expensive cars sold at auction in the past year were Ferraris, including a 1962 250 GTO that in August went for a record $38 million.

Ferrari is the absolute blue chip in collectible cars, said Adolfo Orsi Jr. , a historian of Italian motor sport who co-authors the Classic Car Auction Yearbook. The brand and the exclusivity it comes with wont come under threat if production is raised to 10,000 cars a year. But the key is not to overdo it.

But slack demand in some key markets including the U.S., which accounts for a third of Ferrari sales, illustrates how tricky it could be for Mr. Marchionne to lift production. At Ferrari of New England near Boston, five-year waits common before the 2008 economic downturn have disappeared and there are Ferraris in the showroom for the first time since 1991, said Ernie Boch Jr. , the dealerships owner.

In Milan, where the wait time is down to a few months from as long as three years previously, the citys only dealership is smarting because customers now want a discount.

At the end of the day a Ferrari is like any other car: the buyer asks for a discount and you negotiate, said Lorenzo Carraro, the head of marketing for dealer Rossocorsa Srl. If theres a long waiting list, the discount shrinks and sometimes disappears altogether.

Fiat Chrysler will sell 10% of Ferrari in an IPO next year, seeking to unlock the value of the sports-car brand. Heres a look at some notable Ferrari models over the years.

In emerging markets, demand hasnt surged as much as overall wealth. In Hong Kong, Joseph Ngai, general brand manager for Auto Italia Ltd., said demand has been steady over the past five years despite a boom in the luxury market there.

Some say an increase in production would require new models, such as a sport-utility vehicle, a move that could dilute Ferraris cachet.

There are risks to any expansion plan, said Abbas Ali Quettawala, an analyst with Bernstein Research in London. Its entirely possible for Ferrari to produce and sell more cars. The question is how [Mr. Marchionne] does that and what it means for profitability.

Christina Rogers and John Revill contributed to this article.

Corrections & Amplifications

Ferraris operating profit was 364 million in 2013. An earlier version incorrectly said it was 364.
Click to expand...

Thanks for posting. My fear is that used Fcar prices will fall further than we have become used to. If so, this will hurt new car sales. Lambo here we come?

SoCal to az · Dec 24, 2014

I don't know guys. I see no problems with this. I see more choices for the consumer, I see more competition. I see no dilution of the brand. The market will determine the prices and if prices come down, so be it. I say bring it on.

Noblesse Oblige · Dec 24, 2014

Caeruleus11 said: ↑

They should know what they are doing but with losing LdM they lost someone who really knew what he was doing. SM's comment that they are in the business of selling cars would be frightening to me if I were a shareholder because they are not in that business. Cars are really just transport. Honda, Toyota, GM, even BMW and Mercedes do that. Ferrari is selling dreams. SM ignores this fact at great risk. Of course, all just MHO.
Click to expand...

I think you got it. LdM said they sell "passion." SM sells "cars." It is a different mindset, and it will cascade through the company.

Which approach is more likely to produce something you will be happy to fork over 300+K for and then feel that you, the machine, and the world around you are all special?

Noblesse Oblige · Dec 24, 2014

I'm looking at Porsche sales figures for 2013. Would you believe they sold 162,000 vehicles worldwide, more than a factor of 20 larger that Ferrari. More than half of them were Cayenne SUVs (84,000). Another 22,000 were Panameras. This still leaves about 56,000 sports cars, of which 30,000 were 911s. In magnitude, variety, and certainly in panache, it makes no sense to compare Ferrari to Porsche as just another "high end car brand," as the article sniffs at one point "as most analysts say." There are many threads here where people report using and loving their Porsches as DDs and in the next breath say that their Ferrari is completely different.

irrer88 · Dec 25, 2014

Personally I value design/looks, quality/reliability, performance relative to competition, and then depreciation relative to market. Other wise its just another transport like MB, Porsche, BMW, Audi, etc. Ferrari needs to have a comprehensive strategy vs just branding and units/year.

PhilNotHill · Dec 25, 2014

Noblesse Oblige said: ↑

I think you got it. LdM said they sell "passion." SM sells "cars." It is a different mindset, and it will cascade through the company.

Which approach is more likely to produce something you will be happy to fork over 300+K for and then feel that you, the machine, and the world around you are all special?
Click to expand...

Luca worked directly for Enzo. He got it.

A picture of one of my Xmas gifts from Santa.
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Caeruleus11 · Dec 25, 2014

I don't think its exact numbers- its how people perceive these cars. Most people don't ask what model Ferrari you're driving. They just say- wow thats a Ferrari! They need to keep that.

Whereas Porsche for example, you are driving a 911 or a Cayenne, etc. People know the differences and each is its own brand.

I agree the 430s and even more with 458s, they made too many. We can probably handle 20% more production overall- but what could really hurt is how they get there. SM talks about people not having to wait. I hate having to wait, but if we get to delivering cars quickly, especially at first, there will be zero demand for the last year or so of production. Or they will make even more of the special models and that will make them less special.

I guess what I'm saying is its very easy to shatter a dream.

I think LdM really appreciated this and he remembered the days that they did have inventory piling up and swore to never ever let that happen. It could happen under what SM appears to be going for. But maybe I misunderstand it...

texex91 · Dec 25, 2014

Said it before--Ferrari is going public--there is one purpose moving forward--satisfiying stockholders. Period. One can argue, but it's true. And Fiat is taking 80% of that profit from going public and mleaving Ferrari with the financial burden.

Net/net they will start pumping out cars as fast as possible in the coming years.

The 'good days' are over.

F2003-GA · Dec 25, 2014

IMO 10k production is needed.I have so many friends that want to buy a 458
but cannot stomach the 3 year wait or buy used first approach.The only folks
that will get hurt at 10k production is the dealers.They will have to start earning
the business as opposed to playing GOD. That's just IMO

x z8 · Dec 25, 2014

texex91 said: ↑

Said it before--Ferrari is going public--there is one purpose moving forward--satisfiying stockholders. Period. One can argue, but it's true. And Fiat is taking 80% of that profit from going public and mleaving Ferrari with the financial burden.

Net/net they will start pumping out cars as fast as possible in the coming years.

The 'good days' are over.
Click to expand...

Yes, the good days are/ will be over when it comes to resale value as more supply will lower used car prices. Expect to see resale values that drop like Lambo's or close to it. LV & Hermes market expensive pocket books, some at what many would consider insane prices. They make sure to keep production below demand. It's the right marketing strategy for high end luxury goods. Ferrari understood this, at least in the past. You can't just go and buy a $6,000+ Hermes bag. They are not available for immediate purchase. Do you have any idea what kind of mark up they are making? If they produced to demand, demand would drop and resale would plummet. Oh, and Audi's Lamborghini division has yet to make a profit. Which is the correct strategy?

MS250 · Dec 25, 2014

The correct approach would be to cut production by 10% , raises prices 12% and cut the work force by 7% , and the model run should last 8yrs.

Viola

TOOLFAN · Dec 25, 2014

U-Boat Commander said: ↑

As long as Ferrari does not make an SUV, the cachet will remain if they make 10K cars/yr.
Click to expand...

+1

Noblesse Oblige · Dec 25, 2014

Caeruleus11 said: ↑

I guess what I'm saying is its very easy to shatter a dream.

...
Click to expand...

Yes. It is a delicate thing. I do not have confidence that SM will be able to navigate to a place that scratches his itch while preserving the dream. I have seen too many examples of a once great company going downhill after a wise and charismatic leader leaves the scene, to be succeeded by a man who sees the carefully built asset as something to be exploited, not nurtured and improved.

Lukeylikey · Dec 26, 2014

Caeruleus11 said: ↑

I don't think its exact numbers- its how people perceive these cars. Most people don't ask what model Ferrari you're driving. They just say- wow thats a Ferrari! They need to keep that.

Whereas Porsche for example, you are driving a 911 or a Cayenne, etc. People know the differences and each is its own brand.

I agree the 430s and even more with 458s, they made too many. We can probably handle 20% more production overall- but what could really hurt is how they get there. SM talks about people not having to wait. I hate having to wait, but if we get to delivering cars quickly, especially at first, there will be zero demand for the last year or so of production. Or they will make even more of the special models and that will make them less special.

I guess what I'm saying is its very easy to shatter a dream.

I think LdM really appreciated this and he remembered the days that they did have inventory piling up and swore to never ever let that happen. It could happen under what SM appears to be going for. But maybe I misunderstand it...
Click to expand...

I agree with both your posts. Increasing production without care is very dangerous. The wait is important.....and also part of the fun. No wait, worse residual, worse residual, lower demand. The wait is a key component of the dream.

It sounds illogical in a consumer driven world ("I want that, I will have that and I will have it now") but if you want a product that stands apart from the rest, so must the whole ownership experience stand apart from the rest.

texex91 · Dec 26, 2014

I agree with most, however my bigger concern is SM will become a little too greedy, thereby causing the need to higher production, which ultimately also means more product lines...gasp, SUV (large, small), mini 458's, etc...sound familiar Porsche faithful?

Bringing more into the brand is really the only way to increase numbers long term.

Camlet1 · Dec 26, 2014

Why are we so worried by Sergio, his likely plan to boost production and the so called issue of exclusivity?

Let me be clear, I've been a Ferrari zealot since I was 6 (I was given a 250LM "Corgi" toy as a birthday present) through to a 14 year old who stood jaw-dropped next to a stunning gleaming black 308 GTS outside some Hilton hotel thinking I'd never ever be able to own and drive something so beautiful, to buying my first Ferrari in 1999 (a one year old 550 Maranello back in which I still have and adore) to my latest addition, the brilliant 458 Speciale in TdF with white "NART" stripes, which sits alongside the 550M, my 599 GTO (a Mike Tyson of cars) and my F40 (beyond description). So in other words, I'm a fan.

Here's why I'm less concerned about Sergio's plans and I don't think there's an exclusivity issue, assuming product remains King.

1. Limiting production numbers doesn't guarantee exclusivity.

I never believed LdM, or anything "old" team Ferrari said about exclusivity anyway. I don't believe LdM gave a toss about the end user per se. Limited editions were never limited. Only 599 599 GTO's made? Hilarious. How many F50s? More than the official number. And there are countless other examples not to mention the F40's 1300-ish units. Ferrari make stunning cars (generally) and are a brilliant marketing machine (as they should be). But let's not kid ourselves about how romantic LdM or other members of his management team were towards exclusivity. There was no romance. They were running a successful commercial business that was in the luxury sector - and they followed the "rules" set by the luxury powerhouses like LVMH. Exclusivity was to be nutured in order to be exploited. The objective was/is to make customers happily buy more and pay more while believing a brand to be exclusive.

2. Exclusivity is defined by the brilliance of a product and its ability to justify a premium price.

Sergio knows the Ferrari brand is defined by its products. The 458 Speciale is brilliant, not because of the badge or the history but because it's a freakingly brilliant car to drive. This is why UK delivered cars finish up at heady £ 250K per car. And why the brand remains rock solid.

If Sergio affects the product quality and performance, yes, Ferrari will become less exclusive, though that'll be the last of Sergio's concerns. Ferrari will have gone bust and Sergio would have lost a massive brand asset. He's not stupid.

3. LdM fall-out was more about ego and less about brand exclusivity.

My view for what it's worth is this was more a good old-fashioned battle of monster egos and less to do with the exclusivity of the Ferrari brand. LdM ran Ferrari as if he owned the firm. Unfortunately he didn't. Was he successful, yes for sure. No question about his influence on the product. Given many examples from the world of global luxury brands, Sergio probably said Ferrari could and should expand production and move into different segments. Assuming product brilliance was to be assured the question would have been very reasonable. My guess is LdM refused any discussion and politely brushed Sergio's opinions aside. Fine if you own more than 51%, and have the cash to pay for new technology. Not so fine if you don't have either.

The Ferrari I grew up with has gone. I'm not sure it ever existed beyond my imagination and the stuff I was served anyway. Ultimately it was only ever about the cars. As it will be in the future. Ferrari can significantly increases volumes and move into new segments if its product brilliance remains nailed, which is although an assumption is pretty much 101 for any luxury car maker. And a "reassuringly expensive" pricing policy and some success in F1 will be more than enough to ensure "exclusivity".

A healthy, happy and successful 2015 to all.

Caeruleus11 · Dec 26, 2014

Great points. Can't disagree with them. I think both points of view have validity.

For all his flaws, LdM understood you can't have a flood of used cars coming on to the market all at the same time. The minute people begin to look at these as just cars, you can forget about it. So its both the product and the perception.

And yes, happy and healthy wishes for 2015.

Coincid · Dec 26, 2014

I read some of the above posts and the elitism and snobbery is hardly appealing. I purchase an expensive , high performance car for the thrill and joy of the driving experience. I do not care to impress others. As a matter of fact, showing off and flaunting your perceived wealth is exactly the reason I hesitate to purchase a Ferrari. Expanding production capacity, so long as quality is not sacrificed can only be a positive since it would dramatically reduce wait times and offer the opportunity of negotiating discounts. If the main concern is that the prestige of the brand will be perceived by those who know nothing about cars is diminished, then you better check your self esteem and penis size. For those who purchase Ferrari, Lambos, Bentleys etc for the same reason you wear a Rolex or Prada, I feel sorry for you. Ferraris should be an avenue to the enormous rush and excitement that comes with driving and the ownership of it. If it is purchased primarily to tell that world you have sufficient wealth to purchase one, may I extend my sympathies.

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