is the bubble due to burst?

Thank you -- great feedback!

 

Thank you for the feedback.

 

I'm not sure such an investment-grade distinction can be made, because the rise of the most sought-after models will always pull along the next rung of the ladder and so on..

 

So, no bubble and when inflation takes off these will continue upwards pricing?

It is having a breather now but when Spring arrives and interest rates climb watch the rise in prices

 

This thread is a mixture of uninformed speculation, expert economic anaysis and the market knowledge of those who actually move in the rareified area of buying and selling true exotics - a game for any number of players!

I am neither an economist nor a wealthy trader, but I am intrigued by your statement and must ask if you mean some irony?

When interest rates rise - as they eventually must - alternative investments will probably become more attractive and that could surely slow the general Ferrari market. Also, there are doubtless still many buyers of middle of the road cars because of low finance and mortgage rates. They will be the first to bale out.

The great cars will always hold their value in the longer term but demand for a lot of cars is still pretty elastic.

 

why must interest rates rise? 1.5trillion of debt is negative right now. Rates can stay low for generations.

 

also I wld argue that ferrari are an alternative investment. will people sell rare collectible ferraris to buy munis or treasuries? I doubt it.

 

and yes these are great inflation hedges. we will never see deflation in the usa. to get deflation you need save and hoard money - Americans don't know how to do that. u want to be long the tallest midget in the room - the US.

 

They could, but worldwide quantitive easing is competitive devaluation of currency, inflation will come as this is wound back and financiers will want a real rate of return. I am sure other posters can give a clearer description of the processes than me, but why would you lend the government $100 to get back $50 of buying power 5 years later - however that is described in currency terms.

Ferrari are for some an alternative investment but who can predict what will happen with other alternatives? I am sure that many owners of top end cars love them and just happen to have the wearwithall to buy them; others just follow the bucks. I think we can agree, however, that the best are virtually bomb proof for the forceable future.

With 20% or so of the world's economy, the US does tend to move at a different pace to many other countries but China is continuing to grow and who is to say how and when the status quo will change?

 

China is not real - it's not sustainable. you have to have a real debt market and property rights to be real.
globalization failed - US catches a cold and everyone gets pneumonia. the world is an interesting place. buy the things you know and love - just make sure they're things other people will also love.

 

btw fwiw regarding my posts - my opinions and a quarter will get you a phone call IF you can find a pay phone in this day and age - all I can say is I put my money were my mouth is and wldnt do anything different with anyone elses money!

 

worth a watch for the first few mins/bubble thoughts
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=res40dhusLU&feature=em-subs_digest

 

Great video.

 

More like a soft landing in a stable market?

That doesn't sound like a bubble .... just higher prices

 

I could be proven wrong, but bubbles only really happen when no one thinks there's one, not when every boy and his uncle is worried about it...

 

Yet the signs are there of a bubble - dealers taking increasing numbers in inventory and not selling ...

 

This is a bubble and it will pop. But there has to be a bank crisis,a euro default or a major war to percipitate it. Look at history. Do you think these never happen?

 

Yeah they may just not happen now or soon. That does not mean we might not see a natural recorrection.

The relaity is though that the typpes of cars going up, are the type they just dont build anymore, and wont, and there are globaly more wealthy people. Analogue viceral italian cars mostly hand built, aircooled porches etc, So the only qestions is when do supply demand and prices balance for particular marques and models.

if you look at Dinos we are seeing balance and have for some while. Countaches may still have places to go or they may by now be fully priced. If a 275 is one value then arguably daytonas are way underpriced still as are by extension boxers and 308s (all classic styling, classsic ferrari feel no nannies etc). Old Masssers are just getting where they should be, relative to ferraris and astons of the same era(slighly below) and as they should be, and miles ahead of where they were wrongly stuck a few years ago.

The markets bubblign in areas, a 200k Khamsin does not make sense for eaxample, yet it will take war lack of finance etc to really crack it, yes some models are mostly played out pricewise and yes others are still to follow up and reindex.

Rememebr when new 25 aniv countaches were zero miles crossing the block for 300k premiums, that was a bubble. When new mecedes Sls had a 50K premium. and 70K new 308Qvs were 120K. By that standard not quite there yet.

 

abundance of easy credit is a necessary and historical element of a bubble... credit is tight to non existent world wide... NO bubble possible yet, there is more to price and its' fluctuation in defining a bubble, only the myopic price followers are mistakenly identifying current market

 

this thread was started a long time ago to discuss the market for some of the older vintage more expensive cars. what people are missing that yes there are finally some signs if a mini bubble, but its really not in the very expensive significant vintage market its more in the modern "special edition" type stuff.... for the most part the vintage market for several brands has topped about 6-8 months ago and has just been having a healthy consolidation since...

 

I see the 456/550/575 being the last "analog" Ferrari from the prime of the Montezemolo era to be a good investment - they are still extremely cheap. (go for only the manual ones).

Testarossa's/512 have already shot up considerable in price.

 

as NYC123 in my opinion correct mentioned there is where the bubble is.
Testarossa's for insane money, nice cars but nothing special.

ciao
Oscar

 

I think there is a topic regarding "bursting' which has not been discussed much. This thread started over two years ago and was already being considered a potential bubble by some at the time. Since that time, prices for many older Ferraris have doubled or tripled if not more.

Since this market will likely, at some time, "correct/adjust" as all markets do at some point, what will constitute whether or not the correction would be considered a "bursting of a bubble"? For instance, if the market were to correct by 50-60%, many of these cars would still be priced higher than their prices from two years ago when many thought it was already a bubble. Does this mean that the "bubble bursted" or do the prices need to fall below the prices from two years ago (i.e., more than a 70% correction) for it to be considered a bursting of the bubble?

 

I think the only correction we've seen so far is the recalibration of auction house estimates. Perhaps that was to encourage more consignments, or maybe they were just extrapolating past sales curves into the future. Prices are still going up, steadily, for quality and non quality assets alike. The latter is what confuses the market - there maybe a multitude of reasons why a poor quality car achieves a "high" sales price: uninformed buyers, advantageous brokers/dealers, or just something the buyer wanted to have for some particular reason.

 

How is the Tesstarossa nothing special?

Seems that many of the accepted older classics are not only slower but less iconic of their respective eras.