Generational shift shaking up vintage car market

Good points. Run of the mill examples will suffer. The world is now your market, with the Chinese soon to get in on the game. For the right cars there's a lot of upside.

 

Interesting that the last line mentions Corvairs and implies they are holding steady as collectibles despite starting life as mass market appliances. I believe that is true for the moment, but it was recently brought up on another web forum that a particular member of a Corvair specific club has been the "kid" of the club for some decades now. The bulk of the membership of many marque specific clubs is becoming quite aged. I think the market for certain makes and/or models is going to crash hard as more boomers age out of the hobby.

 

How many of you like and want to own a Model-T?

Would you pay $50K for one?

How about a Confederate Dollar?


The 308 and others in the same time frame will ultimately become the "Model-T's" for a future era of customers.


They will be worth next to nothing as no one will want to buy.

 

Eventually we'll all be dust.
It's the time frame that's key.

 

I was invited to speak at the local chapter of the Cadillac Club recently.
Was shocked to discover how 'mature' the membership really was.
And I ain't no Spring Chicken myself!

Once that generation checks out, who will want all those cool old cars.....just sayin'

 

I think there is a substantial difference between a Model-T and a Ferrari. Model-Ts were mass produced, not very rare (even today), not very fun to drive, and (to me) not all that exciting.

Ferraris are all that Model-Ts are not. Even youngsters (teenage and below) know what a Ferrari is. And more importantly, they still percieve that there is a mystic/aura that surrounds these cars. When I brought my Mondial home for the first time, and parked it out front, neighborhood kids of all ages were stopping to look and talk about the car. The 9 year old across the street asked to go for a ride.

As long as Ferraris hold that mystic, and people perceive driving them as fun and exciting, there will be a market comprised of kids of all ages. Perhaps if Ferrari starts cranking out millions of cheap appliances, that perception might change.

And, as another point, my 27 year-old son, is also into the vintage car market. He likes to buy, fix and sell. Currently has an 85 Saab 900 Turbo, and is shopping around for a Porsche 928.

I think the market may shift somewhat, especially around mass produced cars. We all remember (fondly) the cars of our youth. As the current generation moves on, we will see cars of the 70s and 80s becoming collectable, and cars of the 50s and 60s less desirable. However, I still believe that some brands will appeal to all ages.

Sid

 

One of the saving graces of the older cars is how simple they are.

My '65 Corvette is 50 years old this year.
It has the ubiquitous 327 V8 in it with a 4-speed shifter and a 4-barrel carb.
The only thing electric in it is a clock that doesn't keep time and a am/fm radio that doesn't get good reception.
It is an easy car to keep running.

Hopefully the future generations will learn to appreciate the simplicity of many of the older cars.
.

 

I went on a few Lincoln Club outings that were like this. Just old folks. We stopped by an antique store on the ride too. Good folks and all, just all older than I was.

 

Funny that this topic came up as I was just thinking about it. A girlfriend of mine lives on the ocean where as kids we used to cruise up and down the strip. I always think of that song 'You can only drive down main street so many times' when I drive along there. In 2003 when I got my 355 Spider I went for a cruise there and kids were still driving up and down on summer nights but she says she never sees that at all anymore. Kids seem to prefer playing with their goofy little phones etc. instead of being interested in cars. I think most just view them as transportation nowadays.

 

I think the key is that the newer teenage generation has ADD (as a proud parent of two children I can say that myself) and has no time for something as complex as a car; to them it may as well be an airplane. If it's not on an electronic screen it ain't interesting.

 

When I saw the title of that article I was kind of taken aback. That has been an obvious change for a long time. When I first went ot Barrett-Jackson in the late '80s the big sellers were all the pre-war cars. Why? The people with money and the big collectors were of the generation who grew up with those. Also at that time the Ferraris, etc. had started increasing in value significantly and they displaced the pre-war cars as the generation shift increased and the older collectors sold, retired or died off. What replaced the Ferraris? The muscle cars of the '50s, '60s and '70s because those are the cars of the baby boomers who now had the money to buy the cars they always wanted as kids. Now they are in their 60s and some of the prices have fallen off significantly. The next generation will do the same thing with the cars that they grew up with. What did the children of the '80s have pictures of on their walls? It could be an interesting mix. We had some very thin years as far as American cars went and the interest in cars has diminished and that to me is the big worry. Twenty years ago when I was very involved with racing on the officiating side it was sad to look around at all the workers and see that most were in their 50s. It is up to us as enthusiasts to do what we can to spark a fire in the younger generation. If we don't all of the "Classics" will wind up in museums and never be seen or heard on the road again.

 

In my son's school all the kids know Ferrari.

Their give-a-crap for any cars before the 355 is Zero.

Their idea of classic music is Rap.

Just dayin and I'll stick with my prediction.

 

The cars from the 80's will do fine for awhile... That was a generation where cars still mattered...

The 90's? Probably will be ok. But the kids won't want YOUR car. They will want the imports. One day, a toyota with a fart can muffler will make a 55 year old man nostalgic and out sell a numbers matching camaro...

2000+? Meh. But some cool super cars...

Kids in the 80's still dreamed about super cars. Had posters... Drooled if they ever saw one... 90's, still somewhat...

Since then, kids have become more "internet centric." They just don't seem to care about cars...

20 years from now most cars will be electric, your car collection will become a static display, and guys will talk fondly about GTO's like Leno talks about Stanley Steamers...

Bo

 

Older cars (pre fuel injection) may have declining interest simply because owners lack the ability to even start the ar should there be any issues. Eventually, a mechanic would be considered niche and specialized if he knows how to balance carbs and can change jets.

So for the cars up to 1970 or so, their prime may already be past. Sadly the late 70's and 80's didn't have that many really fast, really cool cars. Sure it was the time of the Countach and 959, but normal production cars were slow by today's standards. The few collectible cars made during this time wil probably do pretty well for the next few decades until the middle-agers today start to die off.

I could easily see the cycle continuing, the cool cars of the 90's are starting to rise in value or level off depreciating. 2000s vehicles will rise eventually after continuing to fall, there are dozens of neat and super-fast vehicles made in the last 15 years. 20 years from now people will look at the M-B SLS and think what a cool car it is and want one. Cool (or beautiful) is always that way.

Kids today may not care about cars as much as before, but eventually everyone gets something to drive to work. At some point, perhaps at age 30, a light bulb goes off in a guy's head that if he has to be stuck in this thing for two hours a day he may as well have something cool. But the kid in middle school today isn't going to get a Chevelle or 240Z in two decades, he will want a Ferrari FF or Jag F-type S.

 

Generations die, but apparently simplistic vintage car market theories live on.

Classic Ferraris (275 GTB, 250 GT SWB, 330 GTC, et al) have been valuable for decades and will likely always be valuable, not because a certain generation has hit a certain age, but because the cars are what they are: rare, hand built, beautiful - basically works of art.

Even less rare cars, like an F40 or Daytona... I can't see them languishing forgotten on used car lots.

In fact, I'm trying to identify a two-seater Ferrari which the market lost interest in after a certain bunch of guys got old and went full time to the rocking chair. If the "generational theorists" can provide an example or two of a vintage Ferrari, or Lamborghini, that was once hot and is now cheap and unloved, I'm interested. I could use a bargain Ferrari from the '60s, assuming those guys are all old and dead now.

 

i'm in my forties..... plenty of time for this to play out

 

and i am interested in 1950's and up cars.....

 

Another consideration is certain collector cars have become "investments" that have outpaced other more intangible and tangible investments. So regardless of "generational" choices if you can get a good return on an example that will continue to drive up the market. Plus certain marques that are still around today and whose earlier examples are becoming rare, will also be desirable with a financial upside, i.e. F-cars, Porsche's, Mercedes etc. All this plus what is now a world market(with China waiting to get in on the game) and I don't think the bottom is going to fall out anytime soon, even with the prospect of 30+ yo Johnny's still at their parents home in their bedroom racking up a huge score on the computer game with no money or future.

 

To some certain cars become trophies. Signs of achievement, taste or other sorts of status affirmation.

 

I am a younger guy (under 35) and I own a model T. I would have never considered one at the age of 18-25. But as you get older you more and more mature (hopefully) and you start to realize the importance of history and you appreciate what you did in life. When you are 18 you talk about what you did last night and more often than not what you are going to do... your whole life is in front of you. When you get older... you say... remember the time... and your whole perspective changes. I think many people in the 60s probably would have said these duesenbergs aren't going to be worth anything... and next thing you know... they are 7 and 8 figure cars.

308s are not model Ts. Model Ts are barely considered transportation by todays standards because they are so difficult to operate... Now a 32 V8 roadster with a ridiculous frame off???? That is not a cheap car. Infact just a chassis display sold for in excess of 200k.

Usable cars in MY OPINION or usability or ease of use is what I think drives a large portion of collectibility/value. Some of the fastest race cars aren't worth much because they just cannot be enjoyed on your average weekend.


The 308 is no model T. It can be used and a model t was the cheapest car available... maybe the comparison should be a Geo metro or chevy cavilier vs the model T. (The T is still more significant in history plus it has 100 years of "appreciation)

As it seems all ferraris of the pre 74 era are quickly headed to the 7 figure mark... rising tides raise all ships. will they be million dollar cars no. Will they appreciate... almost certainly.

I have a hunch even the cars from the 20s and 30s may take a rise because if Tesla gets his way... that era of Auburn, Cord, Dueseys, Packards, Cadillacs etc.... might be considered a/one of the golden eras of the automobile. It was certainly one of the most significant times of the automobile and almost every single car from this time is rich in history.

 

I'll take em! I'm 37 and have a 57 Eldo and a 59 Cad convertible. If no one wants them I have room for a few more

Wouldn't mind a budget Duesenberg and maybe a 300sl while we're at it

 

I've actually been thinking about getting a Model T. I'm mostly hesitant because I'm not sure I'm mechanically savvy enough to keep it running.

You might find this interesting, though-- the main reason I'm thinking about it is because my 17 year old son keeps trying to talk me into it.

Would I pay $50k for one? No, but Model Ts have never been $50k, ever. And they were mass produced, and there are tens of thousands of them around-- I would bet there are more Model Ts on the road than 308s!

I would certainly pay $50k for a Duesenberg. Or even $100k...

 

Why does everybody bring up China as a major player in the classic car market? Other than the sheer numbers of people there what is the indication that Chinese have been scooping up rare old cars?

And if China is a player why not India, just as many people there and lots of billionaires being minted and $$$ being created?

There was a graph somewhere that classic cars have outpaced any other intangible investment for about last 5+ years; can they be the top long-term investment outpacing everything else (I think art, coins, etc. were listed)??? If yes how do service costs and restoration costs add to the equation?

 

The traffic in India makes LA look like an F1 circuit,