is the bubble due to burst?

To my mind real estate has a cash flow, whereas art/cars/collectibles/ even gold/ do not have a cash flow.

My opinion is overall we are not in a bubble for truly collectible cars because I view them as not being truly appreciated correctly by the market until recent times. I'm sure there are parallels in the art world, which I'm much less familiar. How are Picassos doing these days? Will they ever come down?

The cars that seem to me to be in a bubble are the very new special editions like the 599 GTO. But maybe I'm wrong on that.

Yes, buy what you love. Yes, its easy to say "I'll buy a Ferrari". It's also easy to do that with anything- art, clothes, whatever it is. Only you will know if your motives are the correct ones. That goes for anything in life.

 

Excellent points. Total agreement. It's take me many many years of learning- all enjoyable- to get where I am with these cars- and I surely don't know it all. Learning is a large part of the enjoyment. Of course the biggest enjoyment is had behind the wheel. There is nothing like driving a Ferrari- from any era.

 

Is it that there is a major difference in institutional ownership (museums) between the art market and the vintage car/Ferrari market? "L'Homme au doigt" - one of which sold for $141 million with fees last week is one of seven. 4 are owned by museums like MOMA, Tate, Baltimore Museum of Art, 2 by foundations, and this copy was likely the only one to come on the market in a reasonably long time.

While there certainly are a few buy and hold car institutions it's not yet there yet? Or is that a controversial statement?

 

Interesting point. Of course, those paintings are 50-60 years older than collectible vintage Ferraris, so we may well get there.

 

This is the truth. A sign of a bubble is when the marginal properties start go to unreasonable prices. In 1989, you saw V12 2+2s, TRs, and 308s go up to ridiculous prices. You could even put the Daytona in that category, in that era.

Time moves on, of course, and I personally think the V12 2+2s, and certainly Daytonas, are no longer on the margin-- that's reserved for 355s and modern era cars like stick 599s/599GTOs.

 

"Dynbaiomics"???
Good one, I almost choked on my Wheaties

 

he was nearly $50k under the market assuming your car is a nice example.

do you have the pretty light blue car w/ cosmics?

 

I agree with your Daytona point. At this stage though I dont see most Dinos being driven, other than to the concors lawns. So if its enthusiasts its the show type, and to me this is an auto art "collector". Yes some people imagine they always wanted one, but thats not the same thing as blinding passion to get in one and drive the wheels off, and that passion is what generates the intial interest, those buyers are gone to other hunting grounds. What we have now is people who wanted a 60s style ferrari and a dino is the entry point, part of their equation is the value proposition.

Yes Dinos have stalled out, as they should, and this is a sign of a healthy market. But if for whatever reason Dinos had not become a thing, and there were just old ones knocking about I bet you 80% of current dino owners would not be owning a Dino, just as they dont own 355's. Or to use another example, 2+2's v12s from the 60s are at Dino prices, most epopel didnt gorw up dreming of those, it just became a thing to have a 60s v12 ferrari.

I saw it so clearly with the boxers. Over more than a decade in club guys eyes I was like the guy with an old car who couldnt afford the newest and greatest, or something like say a 275. Now all those same people have a boxer or are lookign for one. The car didnt change, and they didnt suddenly get wealthier. Its just over time through a variety of factors boxers became a thing and they now feel affrimed to buy a boxer. That to me is very different to having automotive taste. I can also say that I dotn see boxers bed DRIVEN as god and enzo inytended anymore.

Automotive taste is when you buy somethign great because you know its great, you dont need it affirmed by others. In time the others catch on. Real art collectors. You hear about the postman who had hundred of millions in great art, he knew what was good and bought it before the chatterign classes bought on name.

BTW I agree with you that anything wiht a horsey on it now is worth $$$ of some sort, also pretty much any horsey car is desireable.

My point is if you have 100K to spend, or 50K There are still one or two great ferraris to buy, every bit as good as the ones now suddenly worth a lot. Cant afford an old aston or masser, there are other marques just as good.

Real enthusiasts tend to drive, and most dont have unlimited budgets, they didnt come to becaiuse thye could afford it, they came to it becaiuse they just needed it, although some do have a big budget. (As a digression there is probablya theis to write about auto lust as a driver for sucess.)


As the collector or show class(of enthusiasts) gobble up the names pricing the cars we know to be great out of possibility, well if you have driving taste and the courage of your cponvictions there are still plenty of attainable great cars to buy. And because these are great cars, in time the other groups will catch on, and they will be appreciation investments to. Thats how come there is still one person I know of with a
50 mill GTO bought against he parents wishes as a college grad gift in the 60s when it was just a used car.

Point is the bubbles are somewhat irrelevant. Cars that are part of the bubble thing are going to rise and fall. That there is even a bubble debate tells you these are investments and collection objects. But in any event for a real enthusiast the type who drives, there are still great cars to buy, whose value has not been touched by the investor or collector class yet.

As to daytonas, they are from the 60s, and a front engined V12 so should be worth way more, their problem is the styling (which I always loved) does not have the 60s curves, and the collector classes place a premium on that, as can be seen by Dino prices.

 

Well 355s still down, but 599s some hitting big bubble, or maybe its other factors. Like people who know nothing about cars buying av12 stick of which only a few made. Or maybe just someone with unlimited $$4 who always wanted one and does nbot care the price because only one is for sale.

In the end the smart money is diversifying into various things, particularily tangible asetts, because they have figured out Fiat currencies actual value is way less than what we currently believe it to be.
Maybe there is a bubble, and a big bubble for some cars, but 10 years on, most prices paid now will look quaintly cheap.

 

Car is very presentable but not pristine. Its a driver. Underside is a greasy mess.

Car is carnival red with LAT hood, black interior and Vintage 13 inch Minilite wheels.

 

I hear you loud and clear on that. When I searched for the best unraced 348CH out there, I was told I was doing the dumbest thing ever. Ferrari friends all said that they're terrible cars, unreliable, expensive to maintain, blah blah blah, from people who only knew what they read on they internet years ago about the first gen of 348s or had early cars that hadn't been sorted. I knew what that car was like to drive and I bought it. It was one of the best purchases I've ever made. That is the only Ferrari I've driven that has the same type of character and charisma as my old 1973 Porsche Carrera RS 2.7. The F40 is close but it has so much power that it's not comparable. The 348CH is nimble and responsive and is pretty much the most charismatic car I've ever driven. If I listened to the peanut gallery, I wouldn't have it today. I've made other purchases like that where everyone said I was doing the wrong thing and it worked out perfectly for me plus some. Then again, no one else has to drive and care for my cars but me so I don't care what anyone thinks. They can do whatever they want with their own money.

So I know what you mean about taste and conviction.

 

I think 355's are down so much solely because of the maintenance and reliability issues (which is part perception and part reality, probably more the latter). As far as inherent value, they are arguably the most beautiful of the V8 series, fun to drive, and still not overly complex. I could see them gaining value in the long run because their inherent value will be recognized more over time and individual cars will also be sorted over time to permanently eliminate the known vulnerabilities.

Later Mondials are wonderful cars also -- their pricing has been essentially flat for a decade or more, so it seems ridiculous to think they will go up, but I also think they will come to be appreciated later for their inherent value of having driving dynamics of a 3x8 series with more comfort and room, the availability of a true convertible, and the ability to take the family along for the ride. I've yet to meet a Mondial t or 3.2 owner that doesn't genuinely love their car.

I wonder about the maintainability of the newer cars long-term -- in 40 years will you be able to get an ash tray CPU for a 458? (okay, the 458 doesn't actually have an ash tray CPU, but there is a lot of complex proprietary hardware in those cars and I wonder how available that stuff will be in a few decades).

 

Interesting about the 348. It does not have PS so its steerign is pure. Unlike the 355 its a 4 valve mtor, the later ones hard sorted suspension. So what we have is a pure driving
very robust ferrari. The minor speed differential to a 355 is in the modern context irrelevant. Style wise, the cheeze grater look grated, wheras to modern eyes its has a freshness because its origional and rare.

 

Think of ity this way, the relative cost to sort a 355 and enjoy is way less than the cost to sort rust etc on a dino 25 years ago. Its really the last beserk drivers ferrari before they became more japanese and Gt.

Mondials we agree, even in period they were considered to be very good driving cars, esp the later ones, and they are not too expensive to keep. Rememebr when 308GT4's were unloved.

In time specialists will figure out how to maintain the newer cars. The tough bits are the ECus and paddle shifts. The newer cars will depreciate after all they are just mass produced used cars and there is always somehtingn newer and better. What the newer cars offer, that useable Gt experience, there are alwasy new replacemts, its not unique. Sadly they are bland to drive too, so maybe they will be like 997 turbos somehting that despute it performance just depreciates, eventualy their numbers will be low enough that the prices will rise, maybe there will even be stick conversions.

Would you rather have a used 360 paddle or a 355 stick, to me its the 355 all the way.

A 458 just because of its looks as well as a 456 are going to be future classics once the herd thins enough. Every now and again stylidsticaly ferrari hits it out the ball park, these are two seminal cars.

 

Careful with those wheaties, look what they did to Bruce Jenner.

 

You are looking at cars through the eyes of a true enthusiast and not someone just colored by opinions and hyperbole. I think the purest modern Ferrari is the 355 and the ONLY reason I have not purchased one is due to the maintenance headaches that (rightly or wrongly) have been discussed forever on the boards. A 348 is, stylistically (I've never driven one) a beautiful car, and one I'd be interested in owning at some point.

What is going on now with most buyers, however, is completely separate from your (and frankly my) approach to these cars. They are buying them because "maybe they will be worth more XX months/years from now..." and "manual cars will be sought after because of X and Y".

There is a huge difference in getting a manual car because we like them and enjoy driving them vs. buying them because they are an extinct breed that have limited supply. The latter approach results in trying to value something highly intangible (what price to put on that?). The manual transmission was ultimately doomed the minute that DCT systems were coming into the market. The timing of them being "doomed" is hard to pin down, but from that moment the supply was going to be limited.

The demand here is speculative and I've noticed in other threads (modern, vintage, and across most "desired" brands) that people are commenting on the speed of the increase. There is a saying of the danger of "catching a falling knife" when stocks or bonds are rapidly decreasing in price... same can be said of the danger of trying to keep up with prices as they ramp rapidly higher, trying to buy before things get "really pricey".

In the midst of big moves in both directions it is hard to see the mountain from the outcrop, so to speak, and harder still to see the cliffs...

I'd love to get a 355 if I had garage space, but not because I think they are priced fairly but rather because I love those cars... and can "afford" to be wrong about the price I'd be paying.

I also personally believe in really blocking out the crowd and trends when making our decisions. Use information, of course, so as not to be ignorant, but the cars I've personally always liked have not always been "in fashion" and I'm completely okay with that... Who cares what others think of the 348??

 

it's the new income / earnings that are being generated that is driving prices everywhere... an average TV talking head signed a $105,000,000.00 contract for 7 years... athletes, entertainers are in the news with their earnings, but the corporate execs are also generating high revenues for their efforts... their incomes make high end purchases look like chump change... there is no slow down in sight... currency or fiat is being diluted at a rapid rate, while the inflation of costs is denied all over... currency is losing value ( buying power ) requiring the use of notes with ever larger digits printed on them to make simple purchases... leaving those in bewilderment at the prices paid for high end goods... leading them to believe that the sky is falling when reality is they have missed the money train and are left far behind holding what now are considered meager resources...

 

I mean absolutely no offense ... but you sound very typical of the usual "bubble talk"

When you say fiat is diluted, you do realize that purchasing power for vast majority of produced goods (at least for USD based purchasing power) is significantly higher. You need to use a comparison based on produced goods and ignore the pockets of where bubbles are.

If you look at consumed and produced goods, or if you look at non-bubble real estate markets (which are most markets globally these days), you will see that real purchasing power is actually significantly higher. Take a look at how much car you get for $30k today vs. 20 years ago and then compare to after-tax incomes of the two eras. Despite relatively weak wage growth, largely disinflationary forces have kept most goods very cheap. Same goes for most real estate markets, when you strip out the bubbles.

I'm not in any "bewilderment" and I'm not sure how I think the sky is falling... During the downturn I was very quick to recommend getting back into the market, despite people calling for things to "get worse and worse" and never recover. The market will generally go up over time, so a constant short/negative view, will be money losing. But identifying when things are out of sync with reality is not a chicken little view. It is just recognizing when fundamentals are misaligned with prices.

That is the case today, in my humble view. My humble view, however, has done me more financial good in the past than harm. My experience has also been that outside extreme situations, the notion of "chump change" is not one off which sustained wealth is based. I can count off hundreds of highly paid entertainers and athletes who earned in the millions, only to end up really, truly, broke, or at a small fraction of their prior wealth.

History is our greatest teacher and humility is our friend!

 

Great points. But I'd rather have a 360 stick AND a 355.

 

Interesting to see the two big lots at RM tonight didn't sell. 250 SWB Cali and Berlinetta both passed. At the preview no one was paying much attention to them while I was there. Lots of interest in the 212 and Lusso though. Food for thought.

 

I think most of the results were market correct, some sales were a little low like the 288 at $2140 and some results were good like the Daytona at $820. Even the big cars that passed could have been sold, the Swb all in was bid to $11,450 and the Swb cal spider at $12,900. It is Swb yes but with open headlights so I think should have been enough to sell. The Enzo seemed cheap at $1400, although the it was yellow and with 26,000 km so maybe that's fair. The 212 barchetta at $7.5m was market correct. I think overall I would say "uneventful" summarized this auction.

 

I thought the 288 was pretty high. The car had 50,000km. That's a lot when you can get a 5k km car for 2.5m. Other than that, I agree with you.

 

yeh relative to miles the f40 with 41k KMs looks like it held up the best- figure an ultra clean low mile f40 is about 1.6M USD....the villa f40 went 1M Euros which is about 1.23M USD with commission. The f50 went 1.1 Euros and enzo 1.25 euros which is far away from the 2.5m USD to 3MUSD those were fetching with low miles.

 

I don't know much about the condition of their particular Enzo but I do know that U.S. Enzo's typically go for way more than what ROW Enzo's go for. Just an FYI.

 

I hear ya - I cant keep up anymore in which model is worth more where....for the CS it seems to change every 6 months and now the same with the f40...whoever owned those cars enjoyed them that's for sure