Ferrari as a business and the coming IPO

Buy equities. But I will buy this. Why. Part of the show. Shame it's not paper. I could do a wall in my garage

 

Fiat/Chrysler merger was a mistake that will result in disaster in the future. The reason is simple, big car companies have flooded the world with mass produced vehicles to such an extent that almost every major urban area is one large parking lot. People are becoming sick of being slaves to mechanical heaps of junk. Car companies have become so desperate for sales that they are once again reaching towards the lowest common denominator to fill them. Subprime car loans are the new norm.

The growing Asian "middle class" story that has been piped over and over by pro capitalists for the past 15 years is turning out to be one big lie. Yes you had wealth expansion but almost all of it ended up in a few hands while everyone else was taking out car loans to buy a dream fed to them by American movies. What they failed to mention is the American dream lifestyle is entirely financed by usury, which inevitably leads to a nightmare.

Exotic cars have become excessively overproduced as well. In the last 15 years we've seen more Ferrari models(including variants) released than the previous 30-40 combined. I feel like every day I wake up there is a new upcoming premiere.

There is a market for these cars now, but what about in 10 20 years time? Baby boomer will be heading to the grave and leaving behind a trail of moral and financial destruction for the next generation to clean up.

The smart money is running for the exits hence the IPO. 80% of shares getting distributed to existing FCA shareholders, and how many of those are going to be sold?

 

The sky is not falling. Cars are now a must. Some few cities are overloaded and are trying to control access. But transport is here to stay. There are billions that do not have transport of any kind. As their education improved and earnings increase all will need transport

 

I want to do it but I really doubt it's going to be a money maker. I just see a rocky road ahead.

 

I don't see Ferrari reporting to Wall Street for too long. Why wouldn't they just bring it private again in a few years so they can go back to business as usual?

 

Huh? Uber doesn't own the cars does it? I thought uber was just a matching service for private cars and people needing a ride?

The hypothesis also completely overlooks the big chunk of the world who don't live in cities.
But I agree with your VC that it's unlikely to effect Ferrari much.

 

It could affect Ferrari if cars are no longer aspirational things. I think the IPO is all about bankrolling/ restructuring FCA's increasing debt taken on to expand. SM has said FCA needs more scale and thats why he's tried to marge with others- GM is the latest one. Placing Ferrari directly on the public markets and exposing Ferrari to this kind of fiscal pressure make it difficult to foresee the mid term prospects for the kind of vehicles like they've been producing over the past 20 years or so. My take is this will be viewed a bit like when FIAT took over. I think this 458/F12 generation will go down as one of the truly great generations of Ferraris. As to autonomous cars, it will happen. But I don't think it will obsolete driving, I think it will be more complicated. My guess is in the city you will put your car into "auto" mode and it will drive as 75%-100% of the driving lanes will require autonomous cars. But there will be those who don't live in the cities and those who still enjoy cars.

 

I will buy a share or two.

 

Is this not posted yet in relation to the IPO ? Project Owl Document

 

Many will purchase just to get the paper shares to frame.