AFTER THE CRASH

+1 Quite correct! A further variant on this statement is that Mr. Market is both patient and crafty so as to do the most damage to the most number of participants as possible.

 

All I can add at this moment is thank you all for making some excellent and thought provoking points.

I agree a car like a 599 GTO is a likely candidate to see some kind of a fall.

The car I would like is the 275 NART Spyder. I'll take one for $5m please (as long as we're throwing out crazy low numbers...)

 

No car is immune to a market downswing. There was a great article a number of years ago that Sheehan wrote which summarized the publicly known trading prices of 250GTOs from new through atleast 2 bubbles and corrections. There was one serial number in the bunch that repeated. #3909 was sold in 1989 to Kato for $13.8M and then traded hands again in 1994 for $2.7M

I'm keeping my powder dry for now. Asking prices these days are stupid. I'd like to add a F40, 288 GTO and perhaps an Enzo to complete the set. But I prefer the MC12 to an Enzo personally. If I hit the jackpot I'm going for a McLaren F1.

 

16M... of course want an Enzo but realistically will never make enough $ to afford one. 16M is reachable in my lifetime.

 

BTW, does anyone have any data on what happened to prices in 2008. That was a very big financial crisis and should be a pretty relevant data point to this discussion I would think.

 

I would say your likely to be 100% correct

 

I bought a TR in 2005 for 60k and sold it for the same in 07. I saw it sell on Ebay for 45k 09? Then for some reason I was offered again around 2011 for 75k at Ferrari of Tampa. Dont know where it went after that. So Ill say at the worst peak to valley the TR market took a 20% hit.

The 2007 recession was a bad one. If history repeats itself and does another 20% correction you would still be way ahead of the curve compared to 2007.

 

I thought it was about a 25% over the board reduction, however that is only a guess. The 1991 crash seemed to me to be worse. possibly hit different models.

 

They only made 10. I don't care what the general collector car market does. These are not going down.

 

When the market corrects itself ill take an McLaren F1 for 500k.

 

around 30% .. from what I recall you could buy the nicest of a model for about the price of an average cond car of the same model ... now the lesser condition cars took a big hit. THis was a time when many people needed the cash to pay off other investments .. THe thing the saved us from a larger crash was that things started looking better the next year or so.. If it had been a prolonged down turn (in the car market) prices would have dropped much more..

 

Good luck with that.

 

It is a beautiful car indeed.

But, since beauty is in the eye of the beholder, my favorite Ferraris are the 250 Cal Sypder SWB, 250 TR, and the 250 LM (I guess I like 250's)

 

In a perfect world: Enzo, Speciale, F12 and a manual 599 GTO

 

250 GTO.Yeah forget about it...How about an F12. GTS Bruce

 

Wow, another market-related thread... we need more of these... At least there is a slightly different spin on it.

Market is clearly in bullish territory across bunch of asset classes but some bubbles are starting to unwind or be recognized (popularly) as bubbles. Mindsets are starting to come around.

What will I buy? If clean examples of F40s are in the $500k range that will be my car. Not because i would expect a big run-up but because that simply IS the dream car for me. 288 GTO is a close second but I would expect a smaller correction there and so will still likely be out of my reach.

2008 was not a great indicator. There wasn't the same sort of run-up in values. Late 80s was the relevant comparison. Prices dropped by over 50%, including on the creme de la creme examples and models out there.

 

The 288GTO has percentage wise increased dramatically in the last year.
Mind you there are only 272 of them made but will that support the whopping increase
they have seen.

 

Market correction or not, the cars to watch for me are certain 60s prototype endurance race cars (Porsche 910, 718 RSK, Dino 206 SP, 250LM, P3/4) and 90s endurance race cars (F40LM, 911GT1, 355GT, F1 GTR, CLK GTR).

As a mental masturbation exercise, picking up a 910 or RSK would be nice. Jury is still out on the turbo cars in my list.