early 8-cylinder market is insane

Thankfully, they made a healthy percentage of manual transmission 360 cars as well. Hence, there isn't much of a premium as there is with the F430.

As I stated earlier, if people stop coveting so much, prices would return to normal. Experience the car; then move on to something else, so others can enjoy the car for a reasonable tariff.

Unfortunately, there are just too many mentally ill collectors out there and too many greedy prospectors looking to take advantage of the situation.

 

I don't really understand what you are suggesting needs to happen for prices to return to "normal". I don't know what normal is.

These cars are things that no one needs, so by definition the only thing driving the market is desire. What is causing the underlying desire is different for everyone. For some it's fun and driving enjoyment, for others it's investment. I'm not sure what a mentally ill collector is, to some degree I suppose we are all mentally ill to like cars (my wife would agree) and additionally I am 100% comfortable living in a capitalistic society. Meaning that if a "greedy prospector" wants to put her capital to use buying something that she might lose money on, that's fine with me. That's how the free market works and yes there are unintended consequences, like the fact that a real Ferrari fan can no longer buy a $30,000 308 but that's life unfortunately.

 

Give it one or two years and $30k (or $40k, more realistically) 3x8s will be the norm once more.

I don't care one way or the other for the speculators. Some will cash out, and some will be left holding the bag. Some won't care. Some will.

What I think is being missed is that the situation (360 vs. 3x8 experience) didn't suddenly change over the past few years. Only the perception changed. That drove up prices. A 3x8 was no more, or less, compelling vs. the more modern car. The only thing that did change is that as prices escalated, it became a vicious cycle of people hoping they would not "miss the boat" and others hoping to get that proverbial boat, and flip it later. Both of these are psychological responses and not some kind of reflection of the growth of wealth.

 

When the stock market takes a dump you will see prices come back to reasonable levels, perhaps with a lag as guys lucky enough to cash out of equities at the right time continue to chase the next big thing, which might be collector cars.

But make no mistake, prices in the future will be cheaper than today for these old Ferraris.

 

I'm not disagreeing as I don't have a crystal ball but just curious, your view that prices will be lower is based on the fact that prices are overinflated caused by speculators?

 

The prices are returning to normal.

The early V8 Ferrari prices have been depressed for a looooooooong time. But now people have FINALLY woken up to the fact that a $25k, $35k, $45k Ferrari was a STEAL of a price, especially since almost NONE of the cars had any mileage over "50,000" back in the day. A 20-30+ year old Ferrari with ONLY 35,000 miles on the odometer is practically BRAND NEW by the mileage seen on today's cars. I have a Ford Expedtion with over 372,000 miles on it, yes you read that correct 3 HUNDRED 72 THOUSAND miles, and a BMW Z4 with over 160k miles on it. My old work car, Acura Integra, had 325k miles on it before I gave it to one of my kids back when they first started driving. So like I was saying a Ferrari with 30k, 40k, 50k, heck even 60k miles on the odometer just finished getting the engine broken in, it's practically brand new compaired to the mileage I have put on my other cars.

And people are complaining about the price of THEIR FERRARI getting back to where it should have been all along???????? Be glad you were able to buy your Ferrari at "huge discount final clearance price" before people realized what lunacy that was. Now that early Ferrari prices are FINALLY getting back to NORMAL, and by normal I mean six figure prices, be glad. If you run into a Ferrari still priced low, and you have been on the fence about buying one, better get it now because the sale is OVER, and supply is running out.

 

Respectfully doubt it. I think price appreciation is because of anticipated value driving car prices upward.

Who is offering the car for sale? Private vs. Dealership. Dealership makes me think capitalizing on appreciation of value versus selling a car that is driven by the owner.

Who is buying the car? Is it the wealthy? Is it the well off professional? The well off professional buys and drives. When its part of the collection its going to get treated differently esp. with a death and liquidation vs. trading it for something else.

I view the Dino as something that was coveted by those teenage kids in the late 60's and early 70's. As they were in the 80's and 90's raising kids, they didn't have the money to buy them. Now in the peak earning years they've all bought them and demand for the childhood dream car has pushed the prices up. Look how many guys in their 60's with a 246 in the garage they're not selling. It's their teenage dream car. The 80's "rare" 928 hasn't appreciated much and agree with desirability vs rarity.

Once a car is truly "collectable" it doesn't matter how many miles are on it or how many accidents its been in. Prices are still stratospheric. E.g. the 250's. Most 3x8 cars aren't there and neither are the 360's. I was surprised when a teenager came up to me at C+C a few weeks back and told me the 360 was his favorite Ferrari. When he is in his peak earning years.. that's the guy that will be bidding up the prices of the 360. Which in and of itself is a gateway drug to other Ferrari's. I didn't know the model differences in detail until I bought mine..

Personally I think many... most, are overleveraged and don't have money. As more go into retirement unprepared for unexpected expenses it's going to force the selloff of quite a few assets. I'm not sure the next generation has the equity to pay high prices..

 

No Sh-t. Stories all the time on the Biz Chan about Millennials who can't even afford to get into a house, much less blow $$$ on a hot car. That crowd ain't gonna be buying Fcars anytime soon.

That said, the small number of Fcars will help keep pricing up, as it only takes a few interested types to keep the shell game going...

 

A market is simply what people will pay for. I live in Silicon Valley. I am not wealthy. I rent and can barely afford it. I am lucky to have a red car in my garage. The single family houses in my middle class neighborhood go for $900 - 1.2. Most of these houses were made in the 1950's and 60's. Most of them are crap! Most of you guys who don't live in area like this would laugh at the people paying this for what you would consider a tear down or serious remodel. I feel like my farts could knock over a couple of them. But because I am down the street from Google and Apple, people pay it.

So I understand your gripe! I just don't see it as a good investment, so I have to move a distance to buy a house, sometime not too far off in the future....

I also understand that's the market! So just get used to it and participate where/when/how you can. You don't have to love everything but somebody does.

Some people like modern. Some people like charm. Some people like visceral. Some care more about getting to 200mph. I am happy I live in a place with these choices. I will just make sure to make my choices wisely and based upon what I want.

Live life and enjoy!

 

That's about the price range of a nice Mondial. In good order, with relatively low miles.

One of these days, people are gonna wake up to the fact that a Mondial is a REAL Ferrari, with a real Ferrari engine, with real Ferrari noises.

At $25K for a well sorted Ferrari - what a steal.

I took my 85 QV Coupe to Cars and Coffee 2 months ago (Dallas). My car is a nice 15footer. Not perfect, but from 10foot looks really nice. Pulled out a lawn chair and sat with the car for about 3 hours. Had a constant stream of people come by wanting to talk about the car, to see the engine, to hear it run (I eventually started). I even had comments such as "It's nice to see something different and unique". My Mondial was 1 of 3 Vintage Ferraris - the others were a gorgeous TR and a stunning Dino.

My point is, that it's still possible to get a fully functional, fully enjoyable Ferrari for $25K.


Sid

 

A bubble seems to have clearly formed (again) on collector cars. Air-cooled Porsches are nuts as well. Enzo-era vintage Ferraris have easily doubled in price in the past 2-3 years.

So the guy that wanted a Dino at $200k but doesn't at $375k looks to less expensive alternatives. "I can't get the Dino, but I can buy the best fiberglass 308GTB on the planet" they think. So they start looking, and in that small market just a few more guys wanting them and willing to pay more means the prices will go up. Somebody pays $150k for a GTB that is literally indistiguishable from new, does that mean a ratty beat 2-valve GTSi with mismatched sheepskin seats and converted to run on LPG now doubles in price? Sellers seem to think so by asking prices.

At some point, possibly the near future or more likely soon after the 2016 election, we might see what the "real" demand and value of items are once easy money stops flowing and the fear of 2008 returns. In that case I think you will see prices reverting back to those of a decade ago, or lower.

 

I don't think this is likely but I hope your right! I'll fill a warehouse with mint vetro's

 

So a decade ago, many prices were 1/10 of what they are now, so you are saying there will be a 90% drop in the market because of the presidential election and because people will suddenly fear that a new 2008 style credit crisis will happen?

 

Not picking on you both, but for all of those that are waiting for this price correction of 50% or greater should be very careful what they wish for.

You may find yourselves being part of that collateral damage in another area of the Economy that you never thought possible before and still not be able to afford a warehouse full of cars even with that discount

 

^^^ Possibly, though I was for the most part unaffected during the last downturn. I'm still sticking with "I don't think this is likely"

 

Concur. Many of the people buying 308s now don't need to sell them if the economy pulls back. So I don't believe we will see a big drop in value.

 

...and you have some HUGE rear tires!!!

Been a long time, since I have seen you post!

 

The problem for many of these old cars is that those of us who have had them haven't found an adequate replacement. The 360, F430, et al, are great cars, but have never struck me as being all that exotic in proportion or design. In many ways, the modern stuff is just less interesting. (That applies even more for Lamborghini, and for Porsche as well.)

I'd love a 458 in the garage, but it's a different animal altogether.

My 308 will be hard to replace, and my Porsche 356 would be impossible.

I doubt it, because of this:

Yup. A new base Boxster is realistically going to be $60K+ by the time you get it out of the showroom. 308s have been below that price level for way too long -- for a hand-finished, relatively reliable, open top Ferrari from the days when Enzo ran the show.

I would guess prices will level off for the steel cars, but $30K was always ridiculously low.

 

I am very happy that your 308 is rapidly appreciating and that you love it but please do send me whatever you are smoking if it makes you believe that a 360 will not beat you going up, down or sideways on a mountain road.

 

IIRC, during the Great Depression around 40% of households either improved or were not impacted at all.

It is all in what you think is likely to happen in the future. After the 2008 crisis, you saw a stock market correction of around 50% and drastic measures taken to avoid a collapse of the financial sector. Absolutely nothing has changed from 8 years ago, if anything it might be worse.

Is everyone buying Ferraris today completely safe from future meltdowns, housing busts,stock market collapse, and outright government theft? I would bet not...

Assuming these things are priced by the margins, the guy flush with cash sets the new price on the way up, and when there is fear for the future the price has to drop to a level where people will bite. That can be a huge spread.

 

You need to drive Highway 74... much different than the winding mountain roads in Manhattan.

Honestly you'd probably be better off in a Lotus Elise, and even there you wouldn't be using half the power.

 

I think the truth is in the middle.

Yes, cars like the TR and 308 have been way undervalued, but now they are overshooting which is always what happens in a bubble.

Generally, true value represents itself in a less steep increase.

So while $60k was crazy low for a TR, $300k is crazy high.

 

Well said! We should all seek and pray for financial stability!

 

Probably as true with 348's as well if they don't blast off in price prior to a market correction or a few tough years.

 

+1