Is the wait over for the 348?

Looks like me playing darts. First two games, most go right (I'm lefty) and the third is all over the place with a bit of overcompensating.

 

Not quite, though archived dealer transactions take a little more effort to piece together than private party, so the earlier months are still fleshing out. Casual observation is that there certainly are a greater number of cars listed for sale in the very recent past than previously. I recall watching in the early part of this season to just a few at a time on, for example, ebay. Now, the cup runneth over. Need to start somewhere, though with tracking and trending.

 

Looks like "anal"ysis-paralysis to me. Just wait and see where prices go.

 

Very nice graphics, Matt. I've been watching the market fairly closely and the data here echo my own observations. This info actually deserves a separate thread, but in any case I hope you'll continue to post updates for as long as you keep track. Thanks for sharing!

 

Glad my car isn't for sale.
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Gorgeous^^

 

Thank you my friend.

 

They sure are looking better everyday


When Ferrari launches their IPO and starts going mainstream with all kinds of cheap promo goodies watch the value of anything pre 2000 start to climb. They will be known as the good old days

 

As of today....

Optimistic push for listings is tailed off a bit from the still-unsold bumper crop of cars in the Sept timeframe. As can be seen, sales and bids are flat, indicating that the buying market out there doesn't agree currently with a rise. Low and mid mileage cars seem to be where sides are the most far apart
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Thanks for the updated charts, Matt! Great info. I'm saving your graphs for the future, as I'm sure they'll be great fun to reference ten years from now.

As you know, enthusiast car sales fall off greatly as summer ends, so it's probably a good time to buy for those who are in the market... unless you're one who thinks a correction is coming sooner than later.

Seemed to me prices on most enthusiast cars were cooling a bit anyway, although there are certainly exceptions to that observation. The big question I have is what will happen to the "bubble" most say that we're in. Most of it surely depends upon the economy, but, barring any huge swings there, will the sharp increase in prices continue into next year's selling season? I'd actually love to see a softening of the car market without a collapse, but not even sure that's possible.

 

I had to do some research of UK asking prices as I needed a valuation for insurance reasons.

My 348 GTB is now insured for £80,000 ($120,000).

Prices taken for all 348's on sale in the UK
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I see some big bucks being asked there mate!!

Some big dollar RHD cars with decent mileage on them.

My car has only 27,000 miles, might have to sell it back to the Poms to get some decent money for it.

 

Whilst it's an interesting current summary of the UK 348 market, it doesn't tell the whole story as it doesn't show how long those cars have been for sale.

For example, the Kahn Automobiles LHD 348's have been for sale for over a year and a half now.

When the 348 market took off in the UK, Kahn Automobiles (along with several other UK dealers) suddenly had 3 or 4 LHD cars on their books overnight and they were originally priced @ £10K~£15K higher than they are now. They couldn't find any buyers for the cars at those prices so dropped the prices and they are still not selling!


The Ferrari Centre have only had their 348's for sale since September/October when the UK's "Ferrari driving season" (@ May ~ October) came to end and owners decided to try to sell their cars to cash in on the rise in the market for RHD cars.

I bought My 348 from them a year and half ago, and from that time until now, they had no RHD 348's available at all, despite having buyers available.

(They actually contacted Me a couple of times to see if I might be interested in selling My car as they had a buyer who was eager to own one. It was a great offer and I could have made a good profit on the deal but decided to pass as I was still enjoying the car too much to want to sell).



The Paddock's £70K 348 with 47Kmiles on the clock has been "for sale" for over 2 years now.

The story behind this one is that it's not really for sale (unless someone offers well over the asking price!). The owner has been advertising the car over the two years it's been "for sale" with a price tag that has always been £5K~£10K over the market price, but doesn't really want to sell it.

I spoke with a Ferrari specialist who went to look at the car on behalf of a client as it was the only RHD car on the market at the time and he told Me two things:

1) In his opinion, the car didn't justify the high asking price. He said it was in average condition at best and needed a few thousand pounds spending on it to make it worth anything like the asking price. Basically, as far as he was concerned the car was worth at least £10K less than was being asked for at the time (and it looks like that trend is continuing).

2) He then contacted his buyer who told him to make an offer just below the asking price and the owner stated that the wasn't really interested in selling the car in reality, and that he was just advertising it to gauge the market every month. He then said if someone were to make him an offer of @ £10K over the asking price then he might sell it, but otherwise it wasn't for sale.

The specialist told Me that the owner came across as being incredibly arrogant, and when the possibility of taking the car for a test drive was brought up, the seller wanted to be paid for it! (Not a deposit to buy the car - He wanted people to pay, just to test drive the car, stating that: "real buyers would have no issue paying for the privilege of test driving his car!". The specialist said that in over 25 years of buying and selling Ferrari's he'd never encountered anything like it!)

Having found out that the car was not in perfect condition and wasn't really for sale, it goes without saying that the specialist who went to view the car was not too impressed with having his time blatantly wasted.



The Autofficina £60K/60K miles car hit the market @ 4~5 months ago when the top end of the 348 TB/TS market was in reality @ £50K~£55K, and so appeared to be slightly over priced (especially considering the mileage! - UK buyers are still paying a big premium for cars that have rarely been driven).

Since the car hit the market, they've left the price the same and now it's slowly heading towards a more realistic value (I'd still say it's £2K~£5K over priced compared to others now on the market).



The Supercar Room's LHD cars are over priced by quite some margin and I can't see them selling for anything like £50K/£55K (They're @ £15K~£20K above other LHD 348's on the UK market right now in similar condition!).

Unless they are prepared to drop the price on them by some margin, then they'll be sat around for quite a while! (Just as the LHD cars at Kahn Automobiles have!).


A summary of the UK 348 market for 2015 would be:

RHD's were basically not available during the UK's "Ferrari driving season" (including the only RHD car that was advertised as being for sale), and the prices went from being @ £40K~£45K at the start of the year, to @ the £60K mark at the end of the year.

A few cars have trickled onto the market now as owners hope to cash in on the rise in values.


LHD's in general just didn't sell.

The market became flooded last year with LHD imports from the Continent by dealers hoping to make a killing - Buying cars cheaply in Europe to sell for a high price in the UK's strong Ferrari market.

The problem was though, too many dealers had the exact same idea, and despite some protestations made by certain members on here that driving a LHD makes absolutely no difference in the UK, nobody really wants them! (Don't believe Me? - See how long the LHD cars sit on the market!).

The LHD prices started the year at @ £33K~£40K, and are ending the year at @ £40K~£55K, which looks like a decent rise - But they simply aren't selling!



And a summary of the UK 348 right now would be:

The market is pretty much closed for winter now - Nothing is really selling due to the time of year and the weather making the roads less than ideal for most buyers (Both RHD and LHD cars).

You might think that this gives any buyers looking for a 348 a golden opportunity to do a deal and get a winter bargain, but the sellers/owners are not desperate to sell and they know that come next spring when the UK's "Ferrari driving season" opens again, they'll be able to ask even more money for their cars.

The RHD cars will sell easily I suspect and become a rare sight on the market again, but I can see LHD's either sitting around for another year due to a lack of interest in the UK, or having their prices reduced again, or even possibly being sold back on the Continent as that market gets stronger, just to be rid of them.

 

You let me know when my red/tan RHD 348 is a £100,000 car and I will sell it.
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I don't think the 348 TB/TS/GTB/GTS will ever get to £100K in the UK TBH. (Famous last words no doubt! )

I think they'll top out here at @ £70K~£80K (and eventually fall back to @ £30K~£40K eventually).

Your car is absolutely fabulous looking but:

The tan leather interior is not very popular here in the UK, Creme leather tends to be more sought after, so that might limit it's market a little bit.

And the limo tint side windows would have to go as:

1) They'll get you pulled by the Police as they're not legal in the UK (But a necessity where you are I suspect!)

2) They would put some buyers off as they'd instantly suspect the car was owned by a Gangsta wannabe or drug dealer! (We really are that judgemental here in the UK! - One glance at a car and we think we know all about the owner and their lifestyle! )

Anyway, I know for a fact that it would take more than £100K to part you from that car!

 

You're looking at asks on ebay, that are easily arguably optimistic based off of the charts posted a few posts above yours (ref: listing vs sale vs bid). Quite a number of those cars have been listed 50+ or even 100+ days, well over the avg. I wouldn't take a snapshot of ebay dealer listings as remotely representative of market value. Hagerty also can be a bit off, trailing with their quarterly updates in what has (had?) been a bubbly and frothy market the past couple of years. We also don't know exactly how they calculate their valuations by weighting data inputs (public sales, dealer>dealer swaps, asking prices, etc). However, they are much closer to real than any other quick-look method in this instance. The best way to gauge value is to simply track confirmed sales to public buyers and high bids from public buyers, and extract a range out of that. Evidently, the public market values these cars currently between $30k and $55k, with transactions executing in the $39k - $55k range. Low mileage tending towards higher, and higher mileage taking the bottom.

 

True. It would be more desirable if it had red carpet, too.

Hello Pap!

 

Pap, can you ban Phil for a couple of years or until we've sold ours for £100,000.

 

Phill are you the devil child of LDiM? Its becoming a close run thing whose going to have the worst impact on 348 values out of the two of you!

Maybe we're the ones missing the game plan. Talk 348 values down, buy a few more at low coin, store them for a few years, then flog em when they are £100k plus.

Oh and,

"One glance at a car and we think we know all about the owner and their lifestyle!"

...erm that's because it is usually that obvious so we do.

 

I've got a long way to go to match LDM! - For a start off I've always said that the 348 is a fantastic car and totally unworthy of the reputation that it seems to inherited over the years.

What I am though is realistic about where the value of the 348 TB/TS/GTB/GTS is going, and I don't see it hitting £100K in the next couple of years in the UK.

Here's why:

between the 348 and the 355, the 355 is the more popular and more sought after car - Like it or not, that's just a fact of life!

If the 355 hits £100K then it's highly likely to stall the market at that price due to the numbers made and the numbers for sale.

For the majority of prospective buyers, they are not going to pay 355 prices for what is regarded as an inferior car, even for a car that's a lot rarer than the 355 - The love just isn't there in general for the 348!

(Don't believe Me? - Just note how many threads are on Fchat asking which car to buy for X amount and the replies are almost always: 308/328/355/360/"stretch to a 430". More often than not the 348 isn't even mentioned!)

Also, £100K is well into F430 territory and for the majority of buyers, given the choice of the two, they'll go for the more modern car with its superior performance/handling.

It is possible I've got this wrong but I just can't see the 348 TB/TS/GTB/GTS hitting £100K

In some cases I'd agree, however, as a Ferrari owner, I'll pretty much guarantee that people have seen Me with My car or out and about driving it and have come to completely the wrong conclusion about who I am and what I'm like!

(Especially the guy who shouted at Me: "Ooh look at Me!..........Flash w:censored:ker posing and showing off in My fancy car!.....you c:censored:t!" as I was minding My own business driving through the city one day!)