Sheehan on Prices: rising prices for the next two or three years ...

Ha! thanks for clearing that up. I'm sure I'll make that mistake again!

 

I, no doubt, will also make similar mistakes too, even though I should know better.

 

I agree that the Chinese market will be for the new exotics, not for the vintage or historic cars. They have no history or connection with the classics, and it does take Knowledge and education to appreciate old cars. The old cars also lack the flash necessary to impress in China. In time, when their value becomes better appreciated there, the Bugattis, the GTOs will find buyers there, as Picassos are starting to do. They are status symbols, bought for that, not so much for personal satisfaction. And will that be the same for the non-super-prime classics, from MGBs to maybe even Dinos? l don't think so. Not in the near future.

This is a generalization, of course, and there are of course astute, perhaps Western-educated collectors there. But not many, I would think.

As an indication, how many enthusiasts from China outside of HK are on the Dino forum?

 

Ok think all world wide markets will start to appreciate classic, regardless of Ferrari's, in the long run.

Think Bill Gates and the 959.

People have a way to petition change. They also open the doors for more cool stuff.

Shawn

 

100% agree with Andres' last comments having lived and traveled in several countries in the area over the years.
If you believe China will be a market driver then you might do better buying company stock in Ferrari, when available and not bother with polishing that old one hoping for a return.

There will be exceptions. I recall in Seoul, Korea, 1992 in one of the huge shopping malls there was a Miura on display, an orange one no less. Shoppers just walked by with zero interest in this car and I mean absolutely zero, nothing. I was told by my friend "what's this old car doing here?". The mall owner was into it or I guess was told it was a good investment in the 80's run up. I should dig up these old photos.

 

+1

 

Strong prices still being achieved in the UK, recently heard of a good GT going for £360K ($550K). Admittedly a very good example but nonetheless possibly a UK record for a GT.

Tony

 

I agree.

Right when they know it's prestigious and a STATUS symbol to pull out on to the lawn with a classic that "is worth millions" they will be all in.

It's all about Status in that culture, anyone in the MKT knows the status is with the old stuff. I think that mkt will get involved.

 

The new graphical presentation where one can add financial indices is most interesting, especially the comparison to gold price.

 

Remarkably, GTs are still values as sheet.
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GTS #1 $515k vs GT #1 $360k...I don't buy that at all. Could C&F's, which are almost always in GTS form, skew the data? That's the only thing that could explain the magnitude of the difference.

 

Ron,

You're correct. The graph only shows averages. What would be of value would be a break up that shows:

GT: 206GT, L-Series, U.S M/E-Series, Euro M/E- Series, U.S. E-Series F&C's, Euro E-Series F&C's.

GTS: U.S. E-Series, Euro E-Series, U.S. E-Series F&C's, Euro E-Series F&C's.

This way it would create usable data. The existing graphs are like combining '64 Porsche 901's with 911T's and RS's.

Freeman

 

Comparing those two data sets shows a concours GT is worth LESS than a #4 GTS!

 

What's even worse is more people are still claiming / praying for this crash to this day.

Can you imagine, God forbid prices pulled back 10-25k on the next haggerty update.

 

For same #1 condition GT's, here's what Haggerty claims for values;

1974 NA
1973 $363k
1972 $355k
1971 $355k
1970 $355k
1969 $405k

206GT;
1968 $825k
1967 $825k

The 1973 valuation makes no sense as it's E-series of which a boatload were made and it goes against the `older-is-worth-more due to limited production' mantra.

 

Like most people trying to guess what's going to happen, more often they get it wrong. C&F gt 246 recently sold in the UK for British record of 550K, that's GBP not dollars.

 

verified or bar room chat? i.e. reg/chassis no and both parties known?

Sounds like a JD one.

 

Hagerty's data comes from auction results and from private transactions by policy holders. When they write a policy or add a car to an existing policy they see the acquisition cost. I think that they may disregard outlier results(like the 550K C&F) as not representative of the market. Hagerty is the biggest insurer of collector cars in the USA by a wide margin.

 

Problem in UK is the rampant growth of property prices, with upto 40% increases predicted in key areas between 2016 and 2020.
For property owners it's great, releasing equity to spend on whatever they choose, including classic cars.
UK property has many international owners, and if one foreign economy falls back, there's another on the up who will thread UK housing stock into their portfolios.
Great news for car dealers, not so good for enthusiasts.

House price growth jumps to eight-month high - Telegraph

 

It was recently sold by Tom Hartley Jnr.

# 07168

Why would both parties need to be known, like many private sales most do it for that very reason, its private.

But are they an authority on the subject, all they collect is data and am highly suspicious of people who convert things into spread sheets to justify an action, which is more often an impulse buy.

I don't see the link in property prices myself, more like people trying to find ways of securing a return on their savings without inflation / tax busting the crap out of it. With interest rates and other investments offering poor and more likely negative returns, something tangible in the garage has become more appealing. the worry is when people start borrowing to buy and make a quick buck, just like buy to let properties in the UK.