Sheehan on Prices: rising prices for the next two or three years ...

???

Home owners are borrowing against the capital increase in their housing stock.

 

How do you produce an index or price guide without collecting data?

 

...Because car dealers have a vested interested in these things...

Shocked if that was the real price. That's an outlying data point. (Albeit a F&C classiche etc). Often inflated p/ex values are used to puff up prices where only a proportion is in cash.

If you look at Gazzi & Orsi data on global auction results (44 sales - none in UK): They report £233k average (USD324K) and a max of £379k (USD 561K) at Amelia Island.

http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-yJ1ZcP9SWvw/VoJ3bjLSw0I/AAAAAAAAFMg/JGtOXV7oatA/s1600/DINO%2B2015%2BORSI%2B%2526%2BGAZZI.png

 

A friend of mine (whom wishes to remain anonymous) just sold his Dino for $615 usd. It doesn't sound like the market for Dino's is slacking off one bit. His was a perfect car however.

 

If I might ask, was it a 206, 246 L or GTS f/c and was it Classiche Certified or critically judged(FCA)? Thanks.

 

Sold in the UK. I believe it was a Classiche 246 GTS L.

 

Wow ! What does that tell you about possible value of the 206 GT depending of course on condition and matching numbers ...

 

If it's a RHD dino - it will always command a higher price simply because the RHD is a lot rarer than LHD. It's not uncommon to see RHD Dino in UK selling upward of 350k pounds...

 

That would be true pretty much only in RHD markets, and not so much because of rarity, but simply because of which side of the road one drives on. In the U.S., Canada, and Europe, in general, a RHD Dino would be worth a lot less than a LHD Dino.

 

All of this is all and well but what does Sheenan answers to this question:
Paris is phasing out car pre-2011 for the next decade. this trend will surely be expanded in France. Norway is planning to entirely ban tranditional engines by the next decade.
You see the trend.
What does this means for classic cars? remaining in showrooms for good like painting after 2030? Clearly driving them will be forbiden and penalized.

 

PLEAAASE: don't make it worse as it is.
From July 1st, 2016, Paris (where I'm living most of the time) is forbidding access to the city to pre-1997 (1997, NOT pre 2011!) cars for Mondays, Tuesdays, Wednesdays, Thursdays and Fridays.
From Friday 18:00 to Monday 8:00 you can still use/drive a pre 1997 car in Paris.
Seven major french cities are studying the same measure.

Rgds

 

yes that is for now but the law is planning restriction pre-2011 in a few years. Regardless you know where that is going. and that does not change the fact that classic car seems screwed effective july unless the law plans to exempt them. So how does this works?

 

It depends mainly if you use the american expression "classic car", which is broad, or the french, which usually means a smaller category of cars that are under a specific regulation, with a special title called "carte grise collection". The owners of these later cars are lobbying the city to benefit from an exemption. Those with the bigger problems would be the owners of pre 1997 cars that cannot get the "carte grise collection".

But from July 1st this year, you are still allowed to drive you classic car in the city from Friday, 18:00, to Monday 8:00 without restriction.

I don't find this excessive, Paris being a city that has never been well adapted to cars, and is today heavily polluted; the french being notoriously undisciplined, the idea to have those with even (or uneven) registration plates driving alternatively during the days of heavy pollution is a complete failure, no-one obeying the instructions.

Rgds

 

I assume the authors of the previous 4 posts are aware that this thread started almost 4 years ago and Sheehan NOW appears to believe that the market is leveling or dropping off for older Ferraris because of demographics and aging of collectors and enthusiasts who are not being replaced by a new generation.

Now, what the previous 4 posts have discussed is a completely new and alarmingly different beast.

This is the first I have heard of this. I do not recall having read anything about that in these forums or in enthusiast magazines like Cavalino, Sportscar Market, Panorama (Porsche), Road & Track, etc.

This development deserves a separate thread, perhaps across all forums.

 

What a dumb law. I mean... REALLY dumb.

 

O.K, to sum it up and doing my best not to derail the thread...

First and foremost, it is not new in Europe: Germany already has such laws in place, this towards the end of the 2000-2010 period, but with (I think...) an exemption for "classics above 30 years old".
The fact that you did not read about it is perhaps because it has not been spotted in the US, but in Europe, I can assure you that we are very aware of this trend.

Pollution from cars is a real problem in Paris, which is a small city as capitals go by; basically, there are simply too many cars in Paris. Therefore, the city took the radical decision to forbid any car build before 1997 (except, as said above, during the week-end) this to curb down emissions, and also to free the streets.
Their position regarding "classics" is that you don't need to drive a "classic" during the working days of the week, and that you still can use it during the week-end.

What this would mean for the long-term is difficult to appreciate for the time being, but you can consider for almost certain that all major french cities will follow suit very soon, and that other major cities, or even countries in Europe are already studying it.

What this implies for the owner of any "classic" living in Paris is, for the time being, that your car has to stay sleeping in its garage from Monday 8:00 to Friday, 18:00.
For the time being...
What this will imply for the "classic car" market is easy to guess.

Rgds

 

Thanks Nerofer for explaining this for us.

 

Hello all, interesting discussion on the impact of legislation on classic cars. I think this trend to reduce circulation of classics is a general trend in Europe and will continue to diffuse. I you put aside your passion for these cars, it makes sense for highly congested and polluted European cities. Having said that, I am not sure it will impact the "market" that much as most people drive their cars less than 500 km per year. (according to FIVE) Weekend us is fine and frankly, having lived in Paris for 16 years, it is not classic car friendly. I once left my car out for a few hours parked on the street (not a Dino but an Alfa Spider) and came back to find someone decided my front seats needed holes made from cigarettes

 

As has already been pointed out, some city center environmental regulations are emerging. Now before everybody starts waving their hands, shouting "OMG" very loudly, I would like to point out a few things.

First, there are and will be exclusions for classic cars. There will be some debate in the future on what is a "classic", and I think Germany is the furthest with this, where they have special license plates for classic vehicles - you can only get them with original cars. In big cities, you need a pollution sticker on any car, but not on a classic. I have actually already received a ticket in Germany for not having it (on my Dutch registered classic), when parked in the Berlin streets. It was waived after protesting against it, as that exemption for classics also applies to foreign classic cars. When parking in a German city, you do need to stick a copy of the license paper proving the build date behind the windscreen, something I omitted. Good to know.

Second, a lot of these initiatives are in my view the result of older cars getting the blame for air pollution caused by modern cars that were assumed to be clean - but with recent scandals of Volkswagen/Audi and Opel and the lot, it is clear that that is very far from the truth. And if I look at a city like Amsterdam, 90% of the pollution is caused by local airport Schiphol, the port, households and electricity production.
Then there is the point that 99% sees very low mileages and as such the environmental impact is negligible, even on a local scale. Etc, etc.

There is still much dust, lets wait for it to settle.

By the way, the Paris rules do not apply to gaseous fuel powered cars, so it seems that if you convert your Ferrari or other classic to LPG, you can still go everywhere and anytime.

 

As already mentioned, it's not that strict here in Europe. In Germany, bigger cities have limited their centers to cars with low emission. The emission class is indicated by the color of the windscreen sticker. Classic cars (bearing an 'H' license plate) are permitted to enter these restricted zones. Every original car with at least 30 years gets this license if it is in at least average condition. As far as I've heard, France has also planned such exclusions for classic cars.
If we'd replace our Dinos with a modern low-emission car, the ecological footprint caused by the production of the new car would be much bigger than we could ever achieve it with our higher emissions. So, we are very eco-friendly and more green than any Tesla or Prius can be