Market discussion: the gated six speed value explosion

Cars for Sale: 2000 Ferrari 456M GT in Seattle, WA 98122: Coupe Details - 422592683 - Autotrader

 

All correct. Additionally, the "hype, emotion and frenzy" around ______ (fill in the blank: the last NA V8, manual gearbox, real man's car, un-nannified chassis, raw/visceral/experience) is really overplayed and amplified both on internet forums and by speculators hoping to benefit.

Here I'm not so sure, at the risk of adding to the very BS debate I was just being critical of....

1) Porsche and BMW continue to harvest both their previous investments in manual gearboxes and the (shrinking, but intense and willing) market segment that will buy the cars. They will do that as long as they are as, or more, profitable per unit to justify the investment. They have the additional advantage, to their credit, that they have enough volume that 10% of their sales is bigger than 100% of the sales of some sportier marques. The 7 speed box in the 991 is likely going to be the last manual gearbox they develop (though they can probably make it last 5-10 years). (again, caution, this is my opinion)

2) Re Alfa and the Giulia QV, one of their limitations is that they do not currently have a DCT gearbox that would fit or work in that platform with that hp/torque level. A traditional auto-box (think Maserati Ghibli) would suck, and they can use the already developed manual gearbox off the shelf. That it's supposed to be a hot car with a manual is great - for the low volume that will buy/pay/value it. Stay tuned for a DCT version. (FWIW, Fiat and the Abarth had same issue, now Abarth w/DCT, Golf/GTI with DSG, et al).

3) I would love to see a (Ferrari) Dino but, despite the public hoopla, I do not see it coming before 2020, if at all. When it does come, I would not expect a manual gearbox for reasons ranging from low (actual) buyer interest to development costs to emissions/CAFE standards.

 

The big question is would they need to spend the logistics, development and tooling dollars to make two versions if they can sell all they want without it?

 

I've seen your car at the dealer. What a beauty.


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WOW! That is a really beautiful car. I am one who really appreciates the 456 and would love to find one to use as a daily driver. The only issue here is the color for me. For the cars I drive, I really only like black. I just can't get past it. It's idiotic, but I guess you like what you like. If I were buying to collect, I almost bought a black on last month for 120K. Not NEARLY as nice as this one. But it was black.

 

I agree- we're living in a new golden age of performance cars!

There are DCT on the market that could handle it - no? Maybe its a cost thing? Also there are some really good automatic transmissions- the ZF that BMW uses and I think Maserati also uses them- is excellent and could fool many people into thinking it was a DCT. I can only give you my pure speculation- Alfa is making a marketing decision to say it is a "true enthusiast" marque by making the big power Guilia stick shift.

I hear from multiple places info that backs you up on the time frame on the Dino and they also wonder if it will even ever happen. My two cents is I hope they never do a V6 since I don't think its a great engine configuration.

 

BTW - Your price is actually a good deal percentage wise if compared with many of the other auto/manual models out there. A really nice 456 is around 85K in automatic. Marshall Goldman has a good example of that. And, CNC has a manual car simliar to your's but not as nice with higher miles for 119K I think. It's a decent comp for your's. GLWS. I wish it was black. I'd be buying today.

 

Wow - I'm with Douglas, very beautiful. I agree with you about black as well (and the horrors of keeping it properly clean)

 

Very true..it always reminds me of this story from the old CEO of Lambo, Stephan Winkelmann...now with Ferrari as a public company, the pressure to extract every cent will even be more pronounced

 

I completely agree, part of what Alfa is doing with the Giulia QV is a big statement - both in terms of image/marketing and performance. If their 'Ring lap time is even close with the production car, it will be awesome (and I want one).

I also agree the manual gearbox at launch is part of it - really targeting at the same buyer motivations that fuel the GT4 (and, Ford Focus RS, GT350, etc). The GT4, RS and 350 though are already spin-offs of established volume models.

Economically speaking, the Giulia QV needs to come in and pull along the more "basic" model Giulias, and create some Alfa halo and identity.

From what I know (some) and can tell (i.e. could be wrong) is that within the FCA universe, they are long on good engines and short on developed/integrated gearboxes that would suit this car. I'm sure there are solutions out there (Getrag, ZF) but unsure the readiness (i.e. are they developed, how much would they cost in a price sensitive segment).

My (personal) view is a traditional automatics just would not suit the car. Needs to be MT, or a DCT-like shifting experience. The PDK in Macan Turbos are great, the automatics in the awesome Cayenne TTS is the biggest drawback of the vehicle.

Another opinion I have, is that while the Giulia QV will see a strong and intense market pickup (hopefully better then the 4C?), it's in a crowded and competitive segment and having a DCT-like gearbox will open up a much broader market. While many here on this board espouse the MT cars, the reality is that not enough of us are actually buying MT performance cars to justify them as stand-alone offerings.

 

all good points here, it made my heart soar to see the Giulia had stick...as far as golden age - this too is what I often say to my friends, with ever more stringent environmental requirements and the advent of autonomous cars, we might be reaching the peak of performance now or the near future. Besides with supercars now doing 0-60 in the high 2s and 1/4 miles in the high 9s...next step is low 2s/9s?

I think more qualified folks can then me can answer what is the point where it becomes impractically dangerous and more of a liability than any real thrill (off the track)?

Cheers

 

I would agree, Paul. And I think that's why people are favouring recent/modern classic cars that are nearly as fast as today's, as practical to drive everyday, as reliable (or more so, with fewer electronics) and more fun because less sterilised.

 

Agreed sir!!

 

that is NOT my car. i just found the ad because it is the ONLY 456mgt for sale in america.

 

My apologies.

 

There's a 6MT LHD 612 for sale at a main dealer in the UK, been for sale since December, no takers, price reduced by £5k since last week, still there.

 

Its the CAR that makes it collectible, not the transmission alone. The first thing to crash will be a $600k MT 599, when every other 599 is $150k or whatever.

This MT frenzy is so reminisient of the end of the muscle car craze when these yokels thought some obscure option doubled the price of the car.

BTW, just bought my 15 year old daughter her first car......2016 Kia Soul with....yep manual transmission.

 

Dying breed is getting younger by the minute

 

no need to apologize. just a simple misunderstanding. didnt mean to mislead you. i have a 456mgt and just wanted to see what it is worth - this happens to be the only one i found for sale in america. according to taz there may be only about a dozen of them in the usa.

 

I've been looking for one over the past two years and have found 6 of them for sale. Not sure how many more there are. But I've seen one silver/blue, one Plumb colored, one Black/tan, one green and two blue/tan. All looked decent, but only one had true low mileage. I'll keep looking.

 

Three years ago I found a 6 speed 430 spider and bought it that day. A few months ago I saw the dealer that sold it to me at a car show and he asked me to sell it back to him. Am I going crazy here. Are these cars really going up in value. This is my third Ferrari and I can't believe that I actually have a car that seems to have increased in value. Someone please tell me its true! I have it sitting on top of my lift directly over my 2005 Ford GT that has also gone up!
Who would have thought! Now if I had only kept my Testarossa!!! Only in America!