Are we about to see a jump in the value of all gas-powered Ferraris?

And you'll notice that they say "...something that might become commercially viable for small aircraft."

There is no battery capacity in the world that could begin to power engines that make enough thrust to hurtle 400 passengers at 600mph for one second, let alone for 14 hours.

 

I never said fossil fuels would be completely eliminated. However, for passenger cars, someday it will be.

The question is when.

 

The one advantage to Europe is it has cities built before the awful invention of the internal combustion engine so in many places you do not need a car for day to day activities. Unfortunately the noise and diesel fumes are still present.

All internal combustion vehicles should be banned from cities, with electric silent vehicles limited in size. This generation is finally realizing the mistakes their parents made by letting the 'car lifestyle' which is antisocial, expensive and noisy take over.

 

Took a ride in a tesla sedan couple weeks ago and talked to the owner who is a car guy. The acceleration and handling are fantastic. Better than any I have experienced. The battery is in the floor tray getting weight down. Very few moving parts compacted to ice. Range is fine for most driving (they have a gas car for convenience). Car can be refueled at special facility in 1/2 hr. Luxury car makers are building their own versions.

All electric by 2030? I'd say a lot sooner than that.

Ferrari will build its own version or it will die.

 

Uh... you do realize that this is a car enthusiast site, don't you?

Ironic that you would call car lifestyle "antisocial."

 

Actually, I agree with him in theory (but not the banning part)

I drive on the 405 in LA and I look at all the waste. Most people have no enjoyment in driving their cars other than listening to their radios.

I see a endless stream of idiotic giant SUV's with only one person in it going to work drinking their Latte.

Put all these people in small electric self drivers that run clean, efficiently, quietly, and safely. Then let the rest of us who want to drive-- drive.

We may be car enthusiasts. 99% of the people who commute just want to get to work easily and comfortably before the boss catches them being late.

London and other cities have the future I believe. You just pick up a car when you want, drive it somewhere, and drop it off. You pay only for what you drive. Why buy a car at all? Just use it when you want.

Google will offer this service eventually. You use your app to call up a google electric car, tell it where you want to go, and it will take you there with no driver needed working 24 hours a day 7 days a week. And, it won't need a parking space because it will always be on the move.

The future is not bright for enthusiasts but its pretty bright for the future of people moving.

 

Electric power will transition from fossil fuels to solar and wind in the coming two decades. It will not be that coal/oil/gas is legislated out of existence, it will be that the alternative sources will become cheap enough to compete and beat fossil fuels in the marketplace. This is not just me prognosticating, recent studies have concluded this is the most likely mechanism for the transition.
https://mishtalk.com/2016/06/13/bnef-report-says-solar-energy-batteries-wind-will-dominate-fossil-fuel-usage-to-collapse/

But that is actually a good thing for cars/trains/motorcycles. Then fossil fuels can be used to power these vehicles. I agree there should be constant pressure to improve efficiency, but I am confident my hearse will be powered by an IC engine. And as long as we want to fly, there will be hydrocarbon jet fuel. The energy density of a battery doesn't even come close for aviation.

Electric cars and motorcycles are still more expensive and less usable than IC engine vehicles. They will remain a niche market until a revolution in battery technology happens that always seems to be "just around the corner". In other words, just far enough out to get funding today for the promise of fast recharge/energy density/long life somewhere in the future.

 

McFly?

Is that you?


[I think you nailed the future pretty good. ]

 

And then they drive them to the nearest dealer to trade in for an "economical" vehicle as soon as the gas spikes back up to that 4 dollar range

 

So if all petrol/diesel internal combustion engines are banned from the roads, how many people who work in the oil/petroleum industry instantly become unemployed?

How many Countries who rely on the oil/petroleum industry for their Countries economy instantly go into recession?

How many stock markets around the World will be put at risk of collapse?

Are the various Governments involved going to heavily subsidise the cost of buying a brand new alternative powered car for those on low incomes?

Will the Governments subsidise the cost for everyone else forced to buy a brand new car?

If it is determined that electric cars are the future, can the various Countries power suppliers cope with the additional demand for electricity?

And with the additional demand for electricity, just how much more expensive would the monthly electricity bill become every month for every household? - Putting further financial strain on families?

All of these things need to be carefully examined before decisions are made to ban traditional internal combustion engined cars from the road.

 

Many predict that Hydrogen powered ICE will happen, and the best place to get bulk hydrogen is cracked crude oil, plus all it's other uses.

 

My personal opinion is that Hydrogen powered ICE would be a better option than going for electric cars, especially environmentally (all the talk of getting all of our electricity from either solar power or wind power is just an unrealistic pipe dream!), but currently, it seems that those looking into the future of our transport needs have a preference for electric cars for some reason.

The problem is, all of the issues I have mentioned are real issues that seem to be being overlooked or ignored.

Whilst electric or hydrogen powered cars might be better for the environment, both could cause a financial disaster to World economies! - And then ordinary working people won't be able to afford any type of car, be it electric or Hydrogen powered!

 

To answer the initial hypothetical question, banning gas-powered vehicles in major markets should NOT make them more valuable. "Old School" collectors may feel even more passionately about them, but they should potentially get cheaper as collectors in certain geographic areas no longer can use them, and decide to sell. Places that ban gas cars also will inevitably see a decline in gas stations at which people can refuel older cars. Having whole consumer marketplaces cut off from the very ability to use a product doesn't raise the product's value.

 

IMO, hydrogen fuel cell is the long term fuel source of basic transportation. But it's still 10 years off and a complete infrastructure system would need to be built.

Still, what are Shell and Chevon stations going so sell when gas is used less and less? They will have to convert to electricity and hydrogen.

 

For long term sustainability, getting H2 from some form of solar driven splitting of water is the dream. Removing H from hydrocarbons leaves coke (carbon), which when burnt to regenerate the catalyst gives carbon dioxide. There are, however, advantages in turning the mobile CO2 emission problem into a point source CO2 emission problem, in terms of scrubbing.

All that being said, as long as we're given options, and not dictated to by government, then I'm fine. I fear that freedom of choice will not be given to drivers...T

 

Disagree 100%

If gov't could ban whatever they wanted, alcohol and cigarettes would be illegal. But they can't. Too many people make money from alcohol, tobacco... and oil. Money talks. The petrochem industry will never let the golden goose die.

 

actually the government makes a lot of money off of alcohol and cigarette sales both fed and state have heavy taxes ..same on gas

 

They do NOW but prohibition movements were effective in the not to distant past.

 

If they ban IC engines from transportation it will be because autonomous technology is mainstream, and the end goal will be all vehicles on the road will be autonomous.

IF (and still a big if) autonomous vehicles prove to be viable and safe technology, it will be the insurance companies that ultimately provide the incentive to switch for most people. Just increase rates to prohibitive levels on non-autonomous. Insurance on your Apple iAuto car is $100, on your '85 Tercel it is $800. Non-autonomous will become worthless except perhaps track-worthy sports cars and there will be a few diehards that refuse to adapt and continue to drive themselves. It is the same as the guys that daily drive 60's musclecars today.

There could also be a big industry converting cars of today to autonomous operation, especially those with an automatic transmission. You would need a computer/GPS unit, actuators for the brakes, most of the drive-by-wire that is common would already be in place and with feedback the electric steering that is universal today also reduces hardware needs. Maybe cameras front, rear, sides.

Slightly OT but you are already seeing this change from manual to electronic safety net in sportbikes. The full monty of electronic aids are only a few years old now on production bikes, but the mindset of many riders is starting to see pre-electronic-nanny sportbikes as too dangerous to even consider buying secondhand.

 

There is a lot of tech available to give a car some autonomy today, but there are extremely complex situations in cities that will take a very long time to safely solve in the software. The change will be gradual and for a long time, computer-steered cars will have significant drawbacks. What will happen if you swerve a little on the highway? I bet there is good chance the computer driven car will give way to you.

On the topic of hydrogen, I fully understand why that is not a viable technology for cars. In essence, H2 is a very expensive and complex way to store energy. We absolutely do not have surplus of electricity at the moment so creating H2 is not very efficient today. Plus it's more complex and dangerous than batteries, and the energy density once it's all added up isn't all that great either, especially when looked at well-to-wheel. It might be better to combine H2 with a carbon source into LPG or similar fuels that have better characteristics for car use - but then the car has to be ICE.


Imho transportation will remain an ICE-Electric hybrid for a long time.

 

Money talks alright

When you ban tobacco, you ban tobacco. There is no replacement. Even E-cigs are banned in many places and farmers in South Carolina cannot set up factories to make them. Same for alcohol.

When you ban gasoline engines, you can still make cars. Telsa, BMW, Ford, GM, Nissan Toyota, even Fiat already make electric cars. Its just got a different engine.

If I used your analogy, by having governments force the adding of catalytic convertors to cars there would be no more cars.

 

I agree with this. Insurance costs may be as big an incentive for people to switch to self driving cars as government regulation.

I personally have no problem in self driving cars. As I said, 95% of all commuting is just drudgery going back and forth to work or to your normal destinations (grocery stores, schools, and family).

And so many people are poor drivers a computer couldn't be any worse.

My problem is that it may be forced on us given that non-self driving cars will be viewed as "more dangerous" than a computer driven car. Then driving for pleasure will be eliminated or only occur by special permit.

 

The sound has already started dissipating...A Lot of people fail to see the big picture. Shortsightedness will be our downfall as a race/species/society if we don't find better, sustainable sources to power our cars, planes, trains, boats etc... We are systematically destroying our planet for greed, power and ultimately $$$... Time to think out of the box and make the world a better place. Maybe too optimistic, but more people like Musk need to push the envelope for change. Don't get me wrong, I love cars, engines and all things Ferrari- especially the music of a finely tuned exhaust coming from an 8 or 12 cylinder... and consider myself a lucky SOB to have experienced owning not one but three Ferrari's among other cars in my lifetime, but lets face it , the ICE tech is old and long overdue for change , change for the better, for our kids' and grandkids' sake...

Enough philosophical mumbo jumbo for a monday... I'm going home and taking my 599 for a spin...