Are we about to see a jump in the value of all gas-powered Ferraris?

Lino, changing an ICE car for a Tesla does not or hardly drop your CO2 emissions. Well it would compared to your 599 . A new Tesla has "cost" the environment about 14 tons of CO2. Electricity is about 500g/kWh today, and they use about 250W/km, so 125 grammes of CO2, and this is without charging and self-discharging losses or the changes to infrastructure that will be required. I see there are superchargers out there that use liquid cooling of the charging cables.

There are quite a few ICE cars that can nearly or completely match that performance in terms of CO2, and if you replace a car before it's worn out, how long before you have earned back those 14 tonnes?

I am not saying the tech isn't nice or viable, this is just to put things in perspective especially those saying you're destroying the planet if you don't do electric.

And then there is the debate of natural vs man-made CO2, 300 year climate supercycle, solarcycles, whether the science behind AGW is sound or not... can of worms.

 

Exactly right 166&456 (nice cars!)

I'm sorry- but you don't buy products to "make the world a better place". If you really want to help, stop using electricity and buying products. IMHO the electric vehicle = totally clean and green is this generations version of "fat free"....

And how do you define sustainable? Tesla has yet to sustain a profit. They make a ton from playing tax and accounting games.

Most of us want to do the best we can with the situation we have.

And what about all 18000 lithium ion cells in each and every Tesla? Eventually those go into the landfill too... Or do they get 100% recycled?

I think Mr.Mayor you are mostly right about the future except you have forgotten one thing- the amount of jobs available will be far less- most replaced due to the ease and low cost of technology combined with high regulations/ lack of any legal and tax reforms. The employers will have nearly no incentive to hire. All those people clogging the freeways won't be on the freeways going to work. They might have other places to go. Maybe the whole definition of work and money will change. We are in interesting times for sure.

I also think FlashG makes a great point about the entrenched industries. As to what will happen to the gas stations, I think eventually we won't really have too many. Ultimately I envision no one really owning cars (outside enthusiasts) and instead you will have a ride sharing program- think of streaming but with cars. You might have the Lexus or Mercedes or Chevy program. You will summon your vehicle of choice and it will self drive to you within x period of time. When you're done, it goes away. All fueling, maintenance, etc will all be done in central locations. When inside the vehicle your preferences/ playlists/ streaming choices, etc will all be uploaded so you can instagram with delight.

 

Well I never said we had to go electric...All I said was we need people like Musk to make a push for change, positive change... What that will be, hydrogen, electric, fusion, compost ....who knows. Getting back to electric cars, you cannot dismiss it just because you may live in an area where electricity is produced by coal fired plants or natural gas plants... And even still, I don't believe that the inefficiencies or pollution is greater by charging your batteries compared to drilling, welling, refining and pumping gas into your tank... Here in Quebec, our electricity is Hydro, so any market the produces hydro electricity is a good market for cars such as Tesla's... I still believe in Musk's vision and he will make a success of it not only in financial terms but also in terms of longevity. He has purpose and it's not all greed. The company would have disappeared a long time ago if the impact of what he is trying to do was meaningless.

I just see it as an atrocity on our environment to hear of such things as fracking which has been linked to earthquakes and our very own Tar sands which has had a huge impact on the ecology of that area and the effects to our environment which will not be known until it's too late... There have been phenomenal achievements in other facets of technology, but when it comes to oil and ICE, we are at their mercy and have been held back.

Just my $0.02

 

I agree with Phil on these points he brings up.

I've been following this thread and I'm intrigued by some of the comments made.

As someone who is in the front line in the petroleum industry, I have a certain perspective not seen by the majority of people. I don't expect many here to take me seriously, because I'm not American, but what I see here in Vancouver is quite eye-opening. It is for the most part, a very liberal, left-wing city, but because it is a port city on the Pacific, there is a lot of trade that passes through here. A LOT. Goods and raw material, back-and-forth.

It is quite contentious, but there is a huge amount of oil that ends up here and more is required because there is no lack of demand. It is not just Asia who wants our petroleum products, but we still do a lot of trade with the U.S. as well (even though your oil industry has been going very strong in recent years, you still buy oil from us, you're our biggest customer).

I work as a mechanic/technician/welder on tanker trailers and trucks. I have many truck driver friends and I've casually spoken to them about this business.

People have NO IDEA how much this economy runs on oil. No idea.

I asked a driver once what his typical day was. Driving a tri-axle semi-trailer of approx. 37,000L (9700 Gal) capacity, he does THREE runs a day. He delivers over 200,000L (53,000 Gal) to various stations and tank farms A DAY. This is ONE DRIVER, ONE TRAILER, in ONE DAY. In a city (a liberal, tree-hugging city no less!) of approx. 2 million people. I can ask anyone, in any part of the world, when they're traveling on a major highway, take a look around you and count how many tanker trailers and trucks you see alongside you. Keep in mind, each one of those is carrying anywhere between 20 to 37,000L (53 to 9700 Gal).

And there are some people here in this thread who honestly think cars are going to be outlawed completely off the road? Even if many decades off from now?

Gasoline ICE is not going anywhere, anytime soon. I can guarantee that. I'm 40 now, I'll be 80 and I can expect to still have a gas-powered ICE car parked in my garage (if I'm still able to drive then)

It is very frustrating, because there are a large number of people who are very opposed to the oil industry and are trying to stymie any continued use and/or expansion. Whether directly in the form of protests, or indirectly through the promotion of "alternatives". Alternatives will become popular but they will not take over.

In respect to electric vehicles, like Phil mentions, you need infrastructure to support that increased demand and I'm sure, no matter what jurisdiction a person may be in, there is no major update to accommodate that future demand. That will come at too great of a financial cost that no average citizen will afford, or will accept if forced upon by any politician (not if they don't want to be re-elected, and what politician doesn't not want to be re-elected?), not at least in any of a short time frame.

No politician, or national leader will outlaw petroleum use, especially for private citizens. It is ingrained too much into our lives, not just as use of fuel, but almost EVERY product we own is made from it. There isn't enough capacity or production of eco-friendly plastics to supplant oil-based plastics. It's here to stay.

 

I admire Elon's vision and determination, but here's some food for thought (I apologise for a single source, but these three articles are long reads and quite interesting):

Tesla's Huge Mistake: Why Thin-Film Lithium Ion Batteries Won't Power The EV Revolution - Tesla Motors (NASDAQ:TSLA) | Seeking Alpha

Memo To Any Grown Ups Left At Tesla: Take Away Musk's Twitter Account - Tesla Motors (NASDAQ:TSLA) | Seeking Alpha

Tesla's Supercharger Story Is Broken - Tesla Motors (NASDAQ:TSLA) | Seeking Alpha

 

Fascinating perspective and information Peter- thank you. Very informative.

Lino,
Does Quebec get all its power from hydro? If so that is very impressive!

What is Musk's vision to believe in?

I believe he is in it for the money. I don't hold that against him, I just say his motives are as complicated as anyone's. I think he has a nice story to go along with it, and I agree its worth exploring alternatives. However, I see many problems with the alternatives we have today. Such as the battery cells Tesla is using and building. They are pretty nasty for the environment! It doesn't mean we shouldn't stop looking though.

I suspect we will be living through some kind of transition to autonomous and electric but how long will that take? 10? 20? 30? More?? Who knows?

In the mean time we can still appreciate our Ferraris

 

I am not anti-electric
I am not anti- petrol

I am pro-logic. Whatever works LOGICALLY should be the direction.

Unfortunately emotion and political agendas can confuse LOGIC

There is a place for all forms of energy for transportation. It's too bad too many see this as black and white.

 

My apologies in advance if this sounds too harsh, but this a completely meaningless statement. As for the comment on out of the box thinking, certainly a worthwhile objective but rarely, very rarely, ever happens. Musk/Tesla isn't doing it either, they are only upscaling previously unprofitable businesses and hoping economies of scale help it turn a profit..

As I have written earlier, Musk is more PT Barnum than Thomas Edison. A high stock price covers up a lot of sins and mistakes, just sell a little more of the company to the public when you need cash flow. Some day the music will stop and Tesla will be seen as the house of cards it really is. Timing is difficult but within five years people will realize that Lithium-Ion costs are not 25% of today as promised, and in large part people bought Teslas and stock on the promise of a future that is very far in the distance.

 

I'm sorry, I totally disagree... Musk made his money a long time ago and did not need to embark in this kind of risk game if he didn't have a vision for change. With all due respect, responses like this just bring out how narrow-minded we can be when it comes to change.

 

Wrong.

Let's see..

Let's have a look at all the devices that are required to make an ICE car clean vs electric.

Cat converters, well they need to be built in a factory which needs electricity and precious metals.

Erg valves..as above
Air pumps, as above
All that exhaust system needs to be made..as above
I could go on.

With the ekectric car you are eliminating a massive amount of components that are no longer needed to control tail pipe emissions. You are eliminating a massive amount of enviormebtly damaging fluids and oils. You are eliminating the manufacturing processes required to build the ICE engine and all the crappy moving failing parts that go along with it.

Just think..no belts to break, no timing chains, no camshafts to degree, no failed hoses, no exhaust manifold failures, no worries if your car will pass an emissions test. No spark plugs to change, no oil changes for that matter..( yes I know the tesla has coolant and diff oil)

 

The petroleum industry will survive just fine. Almost everything manufactured has some kind of petroleum product in it anyway, plastics, rubber, anything made of metal etc. sure there will be less over all demand for the stuff because we won't be burning it at abscene rates, so the cost of a lot of things will hopefully go down.

Not to mention the kick in the ass to OPEC.

 

Have you ever followed the manufacturing process for Lithium cells from mining the materials all the way to a finished Tesla?

And even if it comes out that over the life of the product there is a significant savings in CO2, in reality it is a moot point. People willing to spend $120k on a vehicle with 200 mile range also will be flying. Flying for business, flying for vacation, flying in emergencies. It doesn't take very many flights to expel incredible amounts of CO2 into the atmosphere, the amount of fuel burned in a typical long-haul flight is incredible. I couldn't believe how many kg of CO2 was associated with my ticket on my last round-trip to Europe.

So at best it is a spurious argument for an individual or family if you look at the total amount of CO2 they are responsible for in the atmosphere. Large changes would have to be made to your lifestyle in before "owning a Tesla for the environment" is valid. Don't use a fireplace. Keep your house dark and cold in the winter, and dark and hot in the summer. Don't eat meat or keep a pet. Never use mulch as it decays, landscape so mowing and watering are not needed. Take cold showers. Never fly. Coordinate your errands to use a vehicle the minimum amount. Ride a bike or walk but don't breathe too hard while doing it.

 

Gasoline is a by product of getting most of these materials from oil.

The amount of petroleum material needed for plastics and drugs is minute compared to what we use for gasoline and kerosene.

 

I agree with all you have said. However If we can get rid off tail pipe emissions it will help the environment. It wont fix all the issues, but it will help.

 

pretty sure lots of petroleum powered cars are going somewhere, everyday...

(no, I'm not a lawyer)

 

Well there you have it. You eliminated the engine oil and gas but none of the other fluids. Spark plugs are changed every 100.000km these days, cats last the life of the vehicle and due to that they contain precious metals are always recycled. Etc.
The electric motors in these cars also fail and cost more than a crate ICE. An ICE is hardly ever opened over the life of a vehicle. Plus, you cannot service most of the electric motors so any failure means an expensive replacement.
Also it is acknowledged that the production of batteries is pollutive, which results in an ICE car really to cost less to produce in terms of CO2 than an electric one - about 4 tonnes of CO2 goes into the battery pack of a Tesla. And that needs to be replaced once over the life of the vehicle. It is also not possible at this time to recycle the lithium, as I understand it is not economical and not clean enough to produce safe batteries with.

Then there is the transition; a forced change will lead to more pollution rather than less; because then you write off things before they're worn and force the production of new products, and if we are to supply enough electricity to every home to charge their daily commute, we need to completely change the grid, at great expense.

There really is no reason today to force electric other than perhaps local NOx - in Amsterdam, most of the NOx does not come from cars but rather the local airport of Schiphol, port, home heating, electricity production and other sources, and if we stop car manufacturers from cooking the tests we might actually have that problem curbed sufficiently.

I am not saying electric tech isn't nice or viable, I am just saying there is no compelling reason. People frown upon petrol because it is perceived "old tech" and a very visible form of energy use - but it only accounts for 8% of your household energy consumption. If you spend $50k or $100k to make that theoretically 25% lower by going electric, chances are you actually not lowering or even increasing your emissions once you add it all up. Chances are also that that 50k would have saved much more CO2 elsewhere, for instance by better insulation of your house.

 

You think electricity to power electric cars magically appears from nothing?

 

You get an eye roll for that comment. Do you think I'm an idiot?