As in other years, the data I have collated for the last decade is summarised in the web posting below. Cars: We All Fall in Love With Our Models: Dino Market 2016 It is based on 1314 individual cars offered for sale in the UK RHD since 1974 with all data checked. Note that it is offer prices, not sale prices for dealers, but both estimates and actuals for auctions. I no longer subscribe here so can't upload the graphs. if someone else wants to do so, feel free to take them off the blog and upload the pictures here. The headlines: Big slow down in growth in prices. Fall in average price and largest increase in variance ever recorded. Currency variations distort comparisons. This will probably be the last year I bother with this, it has probably run its course. happy new year.
Your linked article suggests in part that Trump intends to manipulate the market to drive the USD up for his own personal advantage, in part by increasing protectionism. I have a couple of comments about that: 1. Hey, the WHOLE DAMN WORLD is in an uproar about globalization and tends to believe that protectionism through heavy tariffs is a solution, and those concerns have been simmering for a long time in many countries and not just the U.S. - well before Trump decided to run for President. Further, BOTH TRUMP AND BERNIE SANDERS were in many ways very close to each other on globalization and needing to protect businesses and workers in the U.S. (don't misunderstand - I think they are both wrong in their analyses on those issues). 2. With respect looking for a reason for the rather rampant increase in the valuation of the USD versus most other currencies - it appears that the foreign exchange markets reacted to the U.S. Federal Reserve Board's recent pronouncements regarding increasing interest rates, coupled with significant concerns over Brexit and the long-term viability of the Euro. 3. A strong USD tends to increase the demand in the U.S. for foreign goods, foreign services, and foreign travel (hey - its a great time to be buying parts and supplies for my Dino from the UK and Europe right now), and makes U.S. goods more expensive to the rest of the world - which in turn tends to work AGAINST the interests of American businesses and workers since there are no longer as many buyers for U.S. goods on account of the strength of the USD.
I really enjoyed your piece (and your website). You are doing good work here. I am in the US where the average citizen does not realize the huge (sorry YUUUUGE increase in the value of the dollar (particularly vs. the Pound and Euro). It will be interesting to see if UK/Euro buyers will hold off classic car purchases due to the currency decline, or if they buy hard assets to hedge against further declines. Time will tell.
Hi John, Is there anyway I can see higher res graphs? I can't read the axis captions on your website. Thanks in adavance and great work. Chris
I have put a link to the downloadable powerpoint on the blog. I hope it works, I am not an IT expert (apparently amongst other things!) JG
