When will Vintage Ferrari's stop appreciating?

Some will, some won't. I think anything in the chrome bumper pre-EPA area has a chance to keep going just like art.

Post that --- probably flatten out eventually because there were so many made. Seriously... who sees a $1m 308? Maybe when bread costs $100 a loaf.

As the cost of restoration rises so will the prices of the cars. As long as men have alot of disposable income and people think it's a way to print money, it will continue just like art.

Part of the collector car market is just the assumption that it's a method to print money. When that idea stops, then look for a market pull back from those only interested in having it to make money. But quality and rareness will still be highly prized and priced.

 

A "car guy/person" that can't drive stick? lol

Sure and a person who doesn't like anything hanging on their walls and whom statues freaks them out can be an "art lover".. 80% of the teens and twenty somethings at my C+C drive stick. Keep dreaming of affordable classics! Just because fat and lazy Americans can't drive stick doesn't mean that Europeans and Asians don't. Got to think globally. ALOT of Porsches were bought here and exported back to Germany.

 

+1

Remember that quite a few owners of the 'classics' (not necessarily the Halo models) bought their cars many years ago and could not afford them at today's market.

It is worth reading Mike Sheehan's recent article https://www.ferraris-online.com/pages/article.php?reqart=FOC_201703_SS

 

I agree. This is one of Mike's better articles.

 

I think Enzo Era Ferrari's will keep pace, perhaps the more higher volume cars like 330''s and some Daytona coupes 250 GTE's etc... might come down a bit, but I don't think the market will ever collapse short of a severe Depression like in the 30's... and even then the cars will remain well above the medial household income.

Millennials when they reach maturity and peak earnings will also want to express wealth in some way - a Ferrari, like Gucci shoes, Hermes bags, etc... will tend to be popular. the key is the rarity of the car... the older the Ferrari - it becomes much more rare, and therefore its

I don't ever se 308's being $1M cars ... but I see them hovering around $100K for average models and higher for really good ones.. but to put it in perspective new Ferrari's will be $500K.... so inflation will play its insidious game!

 

Not a bad article.

 

Total global economic collapse. We will have far greater things to worry about than the price of a Ferrari.

 

Some have already stopped and have already backed a bit. See Boxers, GTCs, Daytonas.
The super rare stuff is also slowing down. See last 250 SWB at Amelia.
Some stuff will continue to go up as they are really rare (see 996 GT1 road car).

I am a bit older than you but have friends in their 20s, they all drive manual. They like varied stuff. Mostly Porsche GT3s but admire F40s and such.

 

Never.

Next questions

 

The kids at my kart track that are the corner workers are all in love with sticks... so if they had the money they would buy manual trans cars no question.

 

Not to irritate people who own these cars, but I would not put boxers and GTCs (unless speaking of 330 variant) in the same category as a truly vintage Ferrari. Daytonas are right on the edge... right on the edge of it. I think they fall in and out of vogue because they are the classic ferrari but with a modern twist... if they were more driver friendly they might be a little better off.

As far as the 996 GT1 comment... I think that is an exception as opposed to the rule. Extremely rare car, lemans contentender turned street car. Although, good luck driving that car down the road... I could barely get that thing into my parking lot it was so low. That thing will scrape on 2 quarters stalked on top of each other (not really but you get my point)

I personally see the Gt1 before as being undervalued. If Enzos are worth 2-3 million. Well then those cars should be... far far far less production... ACTUAL racing history/homologation car. Personally the enzo is over valued. Its not that good of a car. it didnt do much... it just has the old mans name on it. Personally I don't think it looks all that good either. It doesn't have an iconic shape or anything. Has a rudimentary gear box... its just not that great. I have no idea why an MC12 doesn't bring a significant premium over the enzo

 

It will ebb and flow but just like inflation it's long range direction will be up.

 

Yes long range is up. But we are all dead in the long range!

 

Not sure I agree with Sheehan. Look at prewar stuff, yes ford model T's have been flat for decades, but Bugattis, pre war alfa Bentlys, Frazer nashes anything fast and cool, keeps trending up. Even look at great fast cars from the 50s, they are mostly owned today by people who were not born then or were just born.

Older cars offer something moderns simply do not, from styling to experience. Plus people into performnce and machineary tend to love the machine in and of itself, hence the continued price rise and popularity of a bugatti T35, is there anyone driving one today who was born when it was made, odds are the bug is at least 2x the age of the driver.

True in certain era's the pool drops of buyers a bit as peopel die off and this probabaly slows the rate of price rise for a while.

The car market also goes in cycles, we are 18 moths past a peak and many cars are off 20-30%, dosent mean they are cheap, and compared to 10 or 8 years ago are still doubble what they were. Nest cycle they may double again, and those who coudl afford one now will lament that they are out of reach.

Stick ferraris from the 70s on up to the 355 with rare exceptions(mondials), they are all now collectable, just at different price tiers.

The newer paddle stuff its still depreciating and since the next model is sort of the same only faster the older ones (with rare exceptions) will depreciate. There is also a complexity to keep on the road which may or may not be a barrier depending on what the aftermarket provides in terms of electronic replacement modules.

Will a 360 at 20 years have hit bottom and start trending up, hard to say, maybe they'l just be like mondials.

Still I think there are plenty of affordable older classic style/experience ferraris to buy. You can still geta reasonable 308GTSi for around 50K, you can get a mondial 8.32 for less. Both nice stick shift ferraris.

In the 75K range there are 355;s, but those do get pricey to keep on the road.
For aV12 there are the 456's at 50-60k.

Then the paddle cars nice 360s are what 60-70k.

Going back to Sheehans math. You can buy a Mondial for 50% of the median salary.
BTW mondials are great to drive, nothing wrong with them, they are to 2017 what 250Pf coupe was in the early 70s.

You can also buy aston vantages for under 50K now.

Considder what new cars people can and do buy in the 40-80K range. i think there are still plety of afforbable ferraris and exotics. Dont forget the older coveted collectables were just used cars 30 -40 years ago, thats why they were so inexpensive.

Someone here once posted a story of trading in a Daytona in 77 on new vette. Go figure. Well one was a used car with needs and the other brand new.


if you appreciate cars for what they are, not what magazines or collectors tell you they are, there are plenty of great affordable ferraris and astons to name two.

Do Millenials drive stick. According to Gm's studies 40% are gearheads, and that probably no different to other generations. There are more Millenials than boomers, plus the whole planet is wealthier, 400 million chinese now have money. Do the math.

Each car market cycle the price will index up. there is now a permentaly limited pool of classic drivign stick ferraris, cars designed before legislation dictated styling, when feel was important over ease of use or comfort. Maybe if ferrari starts making NA stick V8s with great styling it will slow the price rise of a 308 and I dont see that happening.

Everything ferrari up to and including a daytona/dino thye are already collectable, the prices may ebb and flow with the cycle of the market, the trajectory is up. The guy in China may never drive his dino, but what living room art it will make.

 

On a related note, the 70's to early 80's were not particularly kind to cars - the 70's oil crisis' hit the performance market. From a performance standpoint, the 60's cars still held their own or could still keep up.

Today, a mondial/348/355 (no offence) can be outpaced by a modern grocery getter, I'm not so sure they will see the same demand curve 30 years down the road. That said, I don't think they will be worthless either.

Will be interesting to see what the next decade brings. We are venturing into new times with mass-produced EV and self-driving cars on the horizon.