When will Vintage Ferrari's stop appreciating?

Do me a favor.. can you post the link to those Porsche production numbers?

Asking an American dealer why Porsche is still offering manual cars... I expect him/them to tell me its because of Americans demand for stick. I wouldn't expect them to say it's because of Armenian chocolate preferences.

FYI no first source data on the europe statistic.. here is one citation: http://www.just-auto.com/analysis/developments-in-clutches_id86975.aspx

 

How many folks responding to this post have actually sold a vintage Ferrari recently?
For those of us that have, several models stopped appreciating 1-2 years ago. The really special cars will always appreciate, as with any collectable. I do believe, however, that everything else is coming down in terms of real sales price.

 

Great points, and I would add that interestingly the Mondial models are actually holding/gaining in relation to the up/down routine that some of the mega bucks 60's/70's cars are doing. I'm speaking in terms of percentages, not dollars of course. As all of these cars age, the "stats" become less relevant, the styling becomes a hallmark of an era, and people start to catch on that there are still undervalued cars out there that can deliver a highly desired driving experience for less bucks than they expect.

Overall, blips of 3-5 years aside, I see all of these cars going up long term. The only problem I can foresee is if the environmental issues on the planet ever get so bad that gas cars become illegal altogether, at which point they'd just turn into sculptures and/or paperweights. Or they'd get engine conversions to whatever is legal at the time, and still maintain some collector value. But as a 42 year old, I'm fairly confident that will only happen after I've gone to the great twisting mountain road in the sky.

 

Great thread, we really don't know how the future generations will appreciate some of the classics. I do know that none of my kids or their friends know how to drive a stick or are even interested in learning. New cars seldom come with a stick as an option even, including sports cars. So will these future Adults want a classic car they can't even drive?

 

What could happen is gas will be less available, but it will still be available. I think interest in vintage cars will be somewhat akin to how some audiophiles are into vinyl.

PS with regard to stick shift and paddles, about 12 years ago I was discussing this with the then head of BMW M. His opinion was for Americans stick shift is a sports car technology, because most of us are driving automatics. And the only cars with stick shift were sports cars. And our racing was really with stick shift cars. Whereas Europeans and ROW, at the time, most people drove manual cars, and so there was nothing exotic about it. An automated system that could make shifts better and faster was appreciated and was then finding adoption in racing series- especially F1 (by then it had been for a while). So its a question of expectations and mindset.. in essence marketing.

This explanation always made sense to me.

Future generations, if interested, will learn to drive stick shift.

And there is interest. Have a look at how many manufacturers pay to have their cars featured in the latest automotive video games. The market is very strong. The youth are interested. Don't mistake their multiplying options for their time as a lack of interest in cars.

 

The majority of people building vinyl today are kids born after the era of the CD [emoji6]

Whilst there is a strong generational trend to new buyers of exotica I believe its not true that people will not spend on cars that are before their generation.

There is a key difference between a person who lived a particular decade and someone who didn't. The person who didn't only sees that decade through the 'cool filter' the 'media' has preserved for them. Generally media such as films, books, fashion, etc. promotes the best and coolest parts of an era. So for a future generation looking back it always looks like a cool time.

My kids are teenagers and they think the 80s were cool because media is telling them this. I lived the 80s as a teenager and some of it was cool, but actually most of it sucked. This is not so apparent today.

I recently bought my first Ferrari. What I choose is not important but current thinking says I should have bought a TR or 3x8. After all I grew up on Magnum and Miami Vice and these were the cool cars on our walls as teenagers (along with the 911 Turbos). I decided on something a little less obvious in the end but I did consider a TR for bit.

For me the ultimate Ferrari would something from the 50 to 60s era, a good decade before I born. I have no personal experience of this era so therefore for me it is very very cool and desireable.

The first time I recognised this affinity was when I saw a 275 GTS in the flesh. At the time I thought it was the most beautiful thing I had ever seen. I was about 20 back then and I still feel the same aged 46.



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appreciation will stop when no one wants to buy... just like at any auction... can't sell a car without any bids... just like cars sold with a reserve often do not meet the minimum set by the seller...

 

My speculative guess is now.

 

@HKS479 very good points. We tend to romanticize the past. There are always good and bad things. But overall, I would rather be alive right now than any other time!

 

We should not always talk in third person "will they still buy classic cars..."

We are the enthusiasts, the collectors, the racers, the potential buyers!

The question is, would you still buy a vintage Ferrari or Lamborghini or Porsche at the current, corrected price level. And if yes, which cars are you looking for?

Then you have the answer how the market will develop in the future ;-)

I am already looking...

 

You'e correct. The very best of any era holds its value, but only when supply exceeds demand. That is, how many Bugattis were made versus people who want them? But you have to be careful when extrapolating to post-Enzo Ferraris. Instead of dozens being made, there were thousands. So how rare will a F550 be ten years from now?

Market research on luxury buying by Millennials does not support your comment. It appears there has been a fundamental shift in luxury demand. Millennials might be cool with inheriting luxury goods, but not buying them.

Gen Z will be half the size of the Millennials. Any projections of what they might do is purely speculative.

True, but I wouldn't count on the stupid buying habits of New World Billionaires. They have a different perspective than you and I.

But the one demographic you missed are the X'ers. Even though they are only half the size of the Boomers, their sun is just starting to rise. History has shown generational buying power peaks during the mid-50s. So play on.

 

I remember 275 GTBs for $50,000 . 300 SL Gullwings for $5,000. Bought a DB Mk 3 for $6,000. An XK150s roadster for $2,500. Wish I still had them all.

 

I disagree with the milenials not purchasing luxury good. I would say that the oldest of the milenials the ones born in the early 80s have no problem with purchasing luxury goods...

The young millennial... well... they don't have the buying power... so ya... they are inheriting them... because... well.. by in large they don't have the buying power to make the purchase... so the stat is skewed.

the want an desire for the luxury good is there. Its not like Ross, TJ Maxx, Sears and JCPenny have millennials lined up out the door because they don't care about luxury goods and they just want the most economical good.

 

There is a PRIVATE SECTOR SAVINGS BUBBLE in the United States and most of the western world.

All the money is flowing to the top 5% of the population who go out and buy unproductive assets from each other and hoard the rest of their growing bank accounts. The opposite of savings is DEBT which is what 95% of the populace are drowning in. This is what is financing the lifestyles of the GREEDY predatory SIMPLETON top tier who go out and pretend to be sophisticated by bidding up JUNK vintage cars and marxist art(picasso) and other worthless hoardables.

95% are completely broke and close to total desolation in order to keep the assets pumped up of the top 5%.

This is the mechanism driving vintage Ferraris higher. You need government money to pump Ferrari prices. Everything is priced in government fiat.

Higher gov deficits add more dollars to the top of the pyramid. As long as this mechanism is in place than rich people sterile assets will stay inflated. PERIOD.

Right now the deficit is too low.

Vintage Ferraris are STERILE they do not sit and pump out wealth. The BIDS against them has to come from money pooling into FEWER and FEWER hands in LARGER AND LARGER amounts which then bid on them. Same goes for other STERILE assets like real estate, collectibles and secondary market STOCKS.

 

He has a fair point though, and although your comment makes sense to me, it's the same as someone saying a few years ago that a true car enthusiast doesn't get anything but carbs... Times do change and people do value different things in different ways

It is a fact that kids these days do not buy cars anymore. They just Uber or Zipcar everywhere. It's indeed a major concern for car manufacturer as their main clients are older and older people, not the traditional younger generations

To this, add the tesla movement and people are indeed concerned.

I agree that super exotics are so rare that we just need a few billionaires do keep prices through the roof. The 308s etc of this world though, face different realities - I think

 

That's not what the market research is saying. First, even the early Millennials who are making six figures have a high overhead with student loans and high rent. Second, Millennials are more likely to blow money on an expensive vacation than an old car.

 

Of course millenials want luxury goods, everyone does.

The problem is 95% of the population is spending 100% of their income JUST TO LIVE.

Luxury goods = high disposable income.

You have a wealth shift occuring from debtors(95%) to savers(5%). This is KILLING retail sales !

Remember a billionaire miser ain't going out and buying 5000 pairs of luxury shoes.

Millenials are so broke even the ones in high income zones like San Francisco because all their $$ is going to RENTIERS just to live. So you have $200k+ earners who can't rub 2 pennies together!

High prices for vintage luxury means your economy is STARVING itself to keep the USURER class wealthy.

 

+1

 

Well unfortunately... I am young enough to be considered a millennial (but just barely) I think there is a range where I fit in the previous generation... but understand that I have friends younger than me (although the majority of my friends and close friends are 2 decades older than me) so I have a little insight on this. I am not saying I represent the whole generation. I am merely speaking from my perspective.

1. My generation won't admit it... but at least here in Arizona... We helped cause the housing bust due to our greed. I knew SEVERAL friends around my age who owned 5 million dollar in property and 7 -10 high end cars when credit was given out like candy. The thirst is there. The want is there. The ability is gone for the most part... at best its severely restricted.

2. I would just like to put out there... a question... you say vacations are more wanted by millennial. well... maybe now but not later. I would say if you asked any young generation throughout history they would all be more experience driven at a young age instead of asset driven.... Thats what young people do... they go on adventures. They experience. They have been gaining new experiences since they could walk. touching hot stoves... shoving fingers in electrical sockets... trying to kiss girls... etc... its all very new and very exciting... seeing the ocean for the first time... seeing snow for the first time... etc... life is about experience (which they lack at those ages) in our youth. Once you get older... you have done all of that crap. LOL... now you look at a vacation as... well... i just blew 5k on a vacation... where as if you spent 50k on a car... you can own it for however long and if you sold it for 45k... it still only cost you the same price as that dumb vacation....

Also as you get older... you are not looking for as many experiences... you start looking back on memories... which is typically when people start collecting things. There are very few 20 year olds with a collection of ANYTHING except maybe parking tickets and girls phone numbers. Also, they don't have the MONEY to collect anything... they have too much student debt... hell do you know how hard it is to live in a normal sized city on 50k a year? You would be lucky to put away 200 dollars a month in savings if you live conservatively.

I guess all I am saying is... I feel these surveys take into generational purchase but not the mentality of a buyer at that specific age. Remember all of this was supposed to come to a halt when those damn hippies with there long hair got old... they were just going to sit around smoke pot and not have jobs... Some how... someway.. life got a hold of them and made them become adults... and behave just like their parents... much to their dismay.

Now some of you are SIGNIFICANTLY more intelligent than me when it comes to world economies etc... but... you can't stick your nose in the data all the time... sometimes you need a little perspective or a little first hand experience or knowledge. I do NOT mean that in a condescending way to anyone on here. This is not directed to anyone in particular more of saying surveys and data don't always tell the story... They just tell the first sentence to every few paragraphs