Kentucky Derby

Such a amazing performance in the mud, He deserves the Triple Crown Trophy in Belmont Park!

 

The word is he already sold the stud rights for $25 million: American Pharoah to Stand at Ashford Stud | BloodHorse.com

 

Uh-oh!

American Pharoah Owner Called a Deadbeat, Perjurer, Resume Padder | Observer

You'd think the owner was running the Belmont Stakes

Having said that, the owner of the last Triple Crown (Louis Wolfson) went to jail for securities fraud and obstruction of justice (a bit more serious!) not even a decade before Affirmed's 1978 TC win.

 

Good omen?
T

 

Who knows? This is probably why people like horses: they can't read, write, talk or lie!

 

That's true. Never heard anyone talk bad about a thoroughbred, even at the racetrack, even the folks tearing up their tickets in disgust. Blame the jockey. Blame the trainer. Blame the track. Never the horse. Contrast that to the vitriol that F1 drivers are subjected to!
T

 

Florida Derby, Saturday on NBC.

We have a rivalry cooking this year, and this race will likely be key to the Kentucky Derby.

I'll make my prediction soon.

Who's going to Kentucky?
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Nyquist!!

Look out Louisville, here he comes for the win.

 

Great New York times story:
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/05/07/sports/horse-racing/kentucky-derby-gets-a-silver-sheen.html

The full field here:
Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands (gr. I) at Churchill Downs on May 7, 2016 | Race Entries | BloodHorse.com
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It's Derby Day!!!

Who all is watching and who is going to win?

 

The countdown is on @ NBC!

 

I was watching the stream earlier and now I'm tuned back in.

Just for fun I will say Creator-Nyquist-Gun Runner

Texas doesn't allow online betting so I don't have any money on the race

 

Perfect ride by Mario!
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That horse is strong and a deserved win. Mario ran him perfectly

What do you think about a Triple Crown run?

 

If he does win the TC (and I think he can) the very next year after American Pharaoh's TC win, he wont even be the first back-to-back TC winner, because in 1978 Affirmed followed Seattle Slew, which makes it entirely possible. If he stays healthy and gets good trips in the Preakness & the Belmont, we'll have another!

 

He looked like a strong horse so I hope he can do well in the Preakness and Belmont. It's always exciting to watch a run for the Triple Crown

 

If you look at the race sequence 2016 Kentucky Derby Race Sequence | Features | BloodHorse.com you can see that Mario is the King of Cool as he executed this ride with perfection! In fact, its been years since I saw such a great Derby-winning ride, perhaps I'd go back to Angel Cordero Jr's ride on Spend A Buck in 1985 where he stole the race on the front-end going wire-to-wire.

I think Nyquist won this race very easily with a lot in reserve, easier than American Pharoah did last year. Mario gave him a great start, then eased back to rate on the front end, but even before they had gone a quarter, he sees Danzig Candy come up past him on the right to take up the running and he must have been thinking "good news!". Danzig Candy did all the heavy-lifting down the backstretch until Gun Runner's rider moved him past Nyquist on the inside before the 3/4 pole and Mario must have thought: "even more good news!". The two on the front-end took the stuffing out of each other till the 1/4 pole, where Nyquist asked for run simply cruised home.

I also think Nyquist has more tactical speed than American Pharoah because he can come from off-the-pace (as he did in the Breeder's Cup) or he can stalk the pace (as he did in the Derby), or be on the lead (as he did in the San Vincente), whereas AP needed to be sitting close to or on the pace. Nyquist has gears too, as you saw in the Florida Derby, he'll open up if asked.

Sorry for my long-winded analysis, but I guess I'm saying if Nyquist wins the Triple Crown, I won't be surprised!

But, this is Horse Racing and anything can happen!

 

Nice write up- you follow horse racing closer than anyone else I know and it's nice to read your insights

Quoted for truth! Who knows what could happen

 

I've followed it since 1973, the year of Secratariat.

Lately Ive been on a roll and have picked the last 4 Derby winners in a row (2013 to 2016, something I'm moderately proud of), but even I know that my luck cannot continue to hold!

 

Joe, we all are waiting buddy! No picks or favorites this year for you?

 

Sorry for the late input, it's been a busy year so far!

Okay, we are on a car website, so how on earth can we not all root for Isabelle Haskell De Tomaso's Irish War Cry! This is the widow of Alessandro De Tomaso, of the car company fame. In fact, Irish War Cry is highly rated if it comes up wet, and it has been raining at Chrurchill Downs. So make him your sentimental pick.

Personally, I'm going with a horse that has blown me away with his win in the Florida Derby and a work last week that left some speechless - Always Dreaming. This horse has talent, and if he gets the breaks he needs, he might be impossible to catch.

I'll leave you with one proviso, and that is, lets hope these two are not caught by Gunnevera, who will be flying late, especially if the early pace is hot, which it will be because there is plenty of speed in this one.

In order as discussed below.
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No worries Joe. Just not the same without your detailed handicapping of the race! It's a crazy field...Along with your trifecta, think I will take your Irish War cry and tie it to some long shots..Maybe an Irish Bred Thunderstorm, just in case it might be sloppy and Practical Joke .. Should be a good trifecta ! Thanks again for taking the time to chime in, should be interesting .

 

FWIW, my handicapping and interest are for the history of the sport which Ive followed since 1973 - funnily enough I actually do not bet, that's why my picks can be short-odds.

That said, I used to be a terrible Derby handicapper, and the year my wife & I were in Louisville for the race in 2012, I picked Bodemeister who nearly made it - we did not see I'll Have Another coming! I had the pleasure of personally congratulating the winning owner Paul Reddam myself that evening back at the hotel, it was quite the scene!

Anyway, my Derby handicapping has improved and my current winning pick streak all of which is documented on FChat has been:

2013 - Orb (picked him as sure thing to win in the mud as soon as he drew on the outside)
2014 - California Chrome (picked him as early as March after my son and I saw him work in person, thought he was a beast!)
2015 - American Pharoah (picked him as an easy winner, he won, but not-so-easy!)
2016 - Nyquist (picked him as because of the way he was training coming into the race)

So I'm 4 for 4, let's see if Always Dreaming makes me 5 for 5.

I have a feeling something unusual is going to happen this afternoon, let's remember, when 20 horses go in the gate, ANYTHING can happen! Remember Giacomo in 2005?

 

What can I say?

Perhaps I'm in the wrong business!

Beautiful ride by Johnny V.

 

5-5 my friend ! To bad I tied him to the wrong two long shots ..The trifecta paid $8500..$11.40 is a very good pay day for a favorite . Let's look forward to making it 6-6 next year.