New GT

There are 118 California Ts and 114 488s on cargurus. The T has an additional model year. Which car is in higher demand? There are 189 Californias and 319 458s. So if you add up the total Californias and compare to the total 458/488 you find that there are 303 California models since 2010 and 433 458/488 since 2010. Again, the California seems to be in higher demand.

I don't know what total production numbers are but that would have some bearing as well I would imagine.

 

Four tail lights vs two?
The four round tail lights on the Lusso and 812 are a return to the tradition light design.
It is interesting that some find fault with this.
But then people didn't like the switch from four to two at first either, Some didn't like the half exposed design likening it to a tooth which hadn't fully erupted from the gum line.

To change the body style is part of the Ferrari DNA. I for one, am glad that the company does this.

 

In terms of desirability, one can judge a model be it a California or 488 by looking at the waiting list for a new car, the premium for a new car, and the lack of depreciation on the used market.

Counting the number of cars for sale on the secondary market doesnt give the whole picture. What is the price buyers are willing to actually pay for a used car. How does that compare to the price when the car was new.

Does a used California T retain its value more than a used 488 spider? Or a used California vs a used 458 spider? That in my mind is a good fair comparison since both were models in the same production periods, and both are convertibles.

 

Good Lord, I hope not! This'll be followed by F-chat threads entitled, How much is my 2010 Cali with 1500 miles worth? Or, The Ferrari California Market Thread? [emoji6]
T

 

I was hoping they would keep the rear seats. At least until my son is too big to fit in them which may be a few more years.

 

oh you big tease!

 

I am not clear in this and not sure on its own it means anything about price. I understand that you are sighting total numbers offered for sale. However, equilibrium price is a function of both supply and demad right?

For example in 2009 only a small fraction of f430s for sale in the UK had a manual transmission. They were all trading at a discount to F1 despite their rarity. The thing that has changed between then and now is the demand side right?

Sent from my SM-G935F using Tapatalk

 

No hint of prototypes running around and reveal is only a couple of months away. Must be very well disguised then. Or being tested at remote location.

 

The Spider was clearly produced in lower volume and hence because of the scarcity might hold it's price better. However, if you compare comparably equipped cars, I think the story is different. Different people are looking for different things in a car and so given the chance might spec the car differently. However, on the used market, you have to take what you can find. So I would say on the used market, the California is going to sell faster and bring more of the original price back to the owner.

Narrowing the scope further and comparing only '16 and '17 Cali Ts to Spiders gives 73 to 39. Now the problem for the Spider is that it's so much more expensive that there is a smaller market of buyers because of the difficulty of financing the car or paying out of pocket. The California has the advantage in that case. The time to sell a California is shorter, whereas, these expensive spiders are gathering dust at the dealerships.

For example, the very nice 2016 spider at Ferrari of San Francisco was originally priced at $399,000 and has been on cargurus for 60 days. Now the price has been dropped by $20,000 to $379,000. This is probably closer to MSRP because the car is heavily optioned with CF. It's a good spec but has racing seats. I would't buy a car with racing seats. Many drivers won't because it isn't useful for DD. The Calis don't have racing seats. They are more of a DD, advantage Cali T.

Here at Ferrari of Austin there has only been one 488 spider offered for sale and it's been there for a year. The original ask was $425,000 which was about $60,000 over MSRP. Now they are asking $395,000 but it's lost a year of warranty and it still hasn't sold. In the meantime, they have sold plenty of cheaper usd 458s and Cali Ts.

I think that there is very little demand for used 488 Spiders for significant amounts above MSRP but the sellers believe that is what they can get. Look at this youtube video for example.

https://youtu.be/XfxnBzDdlmE

 

Let's look at the time it takes to get a new car. How long is the wait for a new Cali T vs a new 488 spider?

When I bought my California, I waited about 4 months until delivery. When I placed my order for a 458 spider I waited 20 months for delivery. Obviously a new 458 was much more desirable even though it was more expensive.

 

Not certain how their factory is run but that likely influences wait times a lot, especially if they are running the factory in a way that would optimize cost / efficiency. Ferrari is a master of exclusivity so I'm sure they manipulate wait times to strike the right balance, all else equal. It's actual smart to have long wait times for low volume runs so and make that the norm so they can get orders in early and know how many they need to produce well ahead of time. Way more efficient to schedule that way. While the Cali they can keep churning out. If the entry level Cali took 20 months and the low volume high price spider took 4 that would screw up the feeling of exclusivity.

 

Also important to differentiate between the used market and new market as Ferrari has to look at both a bit separately since HQ only gets a piece of the new market but can't let the bottom fall out of the used market as it influences new pricing

I admire how Ferrari manages their new sales. Its a beautiful balance they strike. In my opinion they have to be a Make To Order company to drive the exclusivity. If they become Make to Stock it will wipe out the exclusivity if they are sitting in show rooms new and thus drive down pricing to clear inventory. The higher the price of the car the more risk. So unless volumes are identical its difficult to compare wait times on separate cars at different volumes and price points. It's also way easier to run a MTO factory than a MTS factory as you don't have to forecast demand (there are exceptions but they aren't comparable to Ferrari production in my opinion)

Anyways, at the end of the day I drive a Cali but find the Spiders more desirable. Ultimately we are discussing a problem most people on this planet aren't lucky enough to be having... which Ferrari is better or more in demand

 

Exactly and it has nothing to do with the real value of the car. A lot of the over MSRP prices on the 488 is air and not demand. It's based on a game Ferrari and the dealer network is playing with that model.

This is how I got a 2016 Maserati QP GTS for $115k untitled in March. The 2017 that was pretty much identical was sticker of $161k and ours was $155k but part of the delta was a base price increase believe it or not.

I think you hit the nail on the head. Not sure I want to put extra bucks into that desire, anyway I turned down an allocation on the Spider for now.

 

Ferrari sells CPO cars, sells warranties, authorizes service centers, sells diagnostic equipment and tools, sells parts and accessories, has a Classiche department )with various after sales costs,) and encourages owners to service their cars at dealers as well as creates a marketplace where used Ferraris have more value when sold through dealers.
They get a piece.

 

Plus with 8000 + orders per annum and a programme to built 7000 units per annum the 'wanting it more because you can't have it' is the best marketing strategy ever created.

Coca Cola and Ferrari are the only truly Global icon brands so who can blame them.

 

If one can buy a car either new or used, the price difference is a good way to look at desirability.

Obviously once you own the car, you are always hoping that it retains value and desirability.

However, no amount of rhetoric can suspend reality.

 

Rolex

 

Yes, Rolex definitely is one of the most recognized brands as well. That's because it actually spends most amount of advertisement money of all luxury watch brands. But with 1 million watches produced annually, the recognition does not stem from supply and demand mismatch. (read supply more than demand)

 

Actually, Rolex selectively creates demand by limited editions and timed releases.
Regardless, I was just flippantly responding to: "Coca Cola and Ferrari are the only truly Global icon brands" the criterion there obviously isn't "supply and demand mismatch."

 

Rolex has been successful for a variety of factors. When you see a Rolex, you immediately know that it is a Rolex. It has the unmistakable look and feel of quality. Rolex spends more on advertising but does so intelligently. The design of their products stems from a history of innovations: oyster-case milled from billet, screw-down water tight crowns , sapphire crystals, cyclops lens, etc.

The comparison of Ferrari and Rolex is an interesting one. The pinnacle of combustion engine sports cars and mechanical watches. Both are facing a changing world.
Electric cars and smart watches have arrived. They will be the dominant technology of both industries in the future, and somehow Ferrari and Rolex will need to find a way to compete.

 

Hey, don't get me wrong, my post was not a knock off for Rolex. I was simply stating the implications on the perception of its market share based on its marketing strategy.

 

Seeing as how this thread has been hijacked by watch aficionados, I always find it amazing that Rolex's origins are not Swiss but it was a company started in England in 1905!

 

Back on topic. In the U.K. a 2009 Cali with big miles is still commanding 50% or more of new price. 8 years and only 45 - 50% proves something

 

British and Swiss watches aside.

The Cali introduced a number of firsts for Ferrari. Dual clutch. Direct injection. Folding hard top. Front engines V8. I'm no Cali basher at all.

I'm just as excited as anyone on this thread to see the next generation

 

Prototypes are driving around Maranello since quite some time already but are all hidden under regular/current California T bodywork and virtually impossible to identify.

Some of the dealers will see the new car this week Thursday at the big dealer's meeting at the factory. Potential clients will see the new car (which will not have the name California anymore) at the event in Portofino, Friday, 8 September 2017. The new car will then be shown to the public at the IAA Frankfurt Motor Show in Germany, 14 to 24 September 2017.

Marcel Massini