The future for petrol powered classic cars

If that were the case, we'd have perfect roads in California.

Freeman

 

I frequently make the trek down I-95 from Virginia to Florida. South Carolina has the lowest gas taxes, so I fill up before leaving the state. Florida and North Carolina have the highest gas taxes on the trip.

 

It will be great to see the following:

How a countries such as Iran and Russia decide to negotiate when you are no longer giving them oil money. My guess is we will have significantly reduced leverage as we have nothing to provide them in exchange for there co-operation

The middle east will be greatly affected by loss of oil consumption... which will cause further disruption in the middle east and perhaps more terrorist like activity. (I know that one is a stretch)

Shipping industry will decrease because of the lack of shipments

Gasoline taxes that pay for the roads no longer paid for

People of the UK and the US getting slaughtered in their 401ks because who doesn't own some BP or Exxon etc...


Then we have the entire canadian dollar...

Also, we have the US dollar whos value is based not on the value of the oil but simply the demand of the oil as oil transactions must be completed in US dollars. SO once oil transactions are reduced then there is a reduced demand for dollars...

Anyone who thinks this will be as easy as legislation is crazy... also whos pocket books do you think are bigger... the greenies or the oil companies.

it is going to be a VERY long change over. Certainly not 20 years

 

Well Michael Gove (UK environment Minister and very creepy man) changed that analysis today - Announced a ban on petrol and diesel new cars in the UK by 2040 - (when of course, he will, thankfully, be long gone).

As for electric cars: As long as Lithium has an atomic number of 3 and only one electron in its highest energy level, batteries are not going to get much lighter or have the energy density of Petrol, so they won't have the range, ever. Tesla seems to be an attempt to drive down manufacturing costs of lithium ion batteries by pure economies of scale, it has very little to do with improving the actual performance of the battery itself (other than by clever cooling systems under load).

 

yup... he invested billions on an old technology... a technology thats not going to get him where he wants to be.

yet he is lifted up as an Deity

 

Its so funny that we are so close to the subject we can't see the handwriting on the wall.

All you have to do is connect the dots and you can predict the future quite easily.

Gasoline and the gasoline engine will be extinct someday. The only question is when and what it means to cars that use it.

But there is no question that someday people will look back at the age of gas engines like we look at the Horse and Buggy.

Luckily, horses still exist today but in far far fewer numbers than they did 120 years ago. That may give you a clue.

 

Exactly.

 

Correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't Tesla also losing money every day?

The massive need for electric power, the cost to produce it, etc, are going to slow down the transition away from fuel/oil. It will happen, but not by 2040.

 

But, again, that's not the idea in France and UK. The idea is simply not to sell any more new car powered by an ICE in 2040. That is not to say that the ICE powered cars will have to disappear in 2040; only that you will not be able to buy new-produced ICE cars...something that should only start the transition.

Rgds

 

Toyota seems to be developing an electric car with a new sort of batteries called
" Solid State" that aparently are able to store up to 3 times as many energy when compared to the regular lithium ones, and with a longer longetivity. They say this new car will be ready for 2022, and that will have a much bigger autonomy with a smaller recharging time.

This new battery is up to 75% smaller and lighter thanthe current lithium ones.
If indeed they are able to pull this off, it will be a huge step for electric cars...

 

The problem in The People's Republic of California is that the politicians raise the gasoline taxes to "repair the roads", then use the taxes for their pet projects, and the roads go to hell. One of the many reasons I left California and moved to Nevada.

 

Right, that's how I understood it as well. I think a lot of people are thinking it means all ICE cars will be made to disappear in 2040, and there's no way that will happen.

Selling only electric cars by 2040 seems more plausible, but the issue of where to get all that power is still going to be a problem, IMO.

Best
D

 

Ha! If you want to feel better about the roads in CA, spend a week or two driving around NY!

We've got potholes that would take out a Humvee.

 

Solid State batteries or graphine batteries etc... have been 5 years out for 20 years.

Obviously at some point it is going to happen... I just wouldn't put my money on an exact date or what have you

This magic bullet of a battery is just always around the next corner.

 

..But the more electric cars become a reality, the faster their development will accelerate...

 

Not at all surprised but it's amazing to see how completely "off" the majority of replies are to this thread but let's give it a go:

#1 - As replied to France will not ban gasoline/petrol cars by 2040 only possibly the production of them. Stop taking a piece of news blurb out and passing it as facts, let the news agencies be the bad guys in doing that
#2 - Yes Tesla has not made a profit yet so technically they have lost money on each car sold but rather used savvy negotiating techniques, lending techniques, and government subsidies then reinvested it's money to grow rapidly. Facebook, Amazon are also companies who have done the very same strategy to great affect. You know who else didn't make a profit on paper - GM (who devoured some $11-16B of Americans money stolen by means of a supposed bailout). If you haven't figured it out yet that is VERY common practice, I show a loss on my taxes
#3 - "Gasoline will go extinct" absolute hogwash and silly thinking. It is a commodity, it MAY become more expensive but the taps don't just "turn off". It is supply and demand in it's purist form... you think those who hold a commodity will just let that happen?!?!?! Sure...
#4 - Battery technology and even more so electric motor technology has made HUGE strides over the last two decades. This can be likened to the strides made in aeronautical engineering during WWI and WWII. Right now the battery technology is the bottleneck in electric cars in terms of capacity, weight, production costs and lifespan. Tesla has been the driving force (pardon the pun) in creating the economies of scale (previously mentioned in this thread) hoping to address Tesla's need for quantity and also to insure that he can drive costs down such that he can then turn a profit on each car sold otherwise, like Fisker found out, others can and will hold you hostage to their ability to supply batteries. IF/when solid-state or graphine batteries actually prove they can be produced in quantity for a price that makes sense this will be a game changer but that remains to be seen.
#5 - range/charging - 200-300+ miles range per charge is WAY beyond what most people require either for daily usage or even weekend fun. Elon was brilliant on foreseeing this as a stumbling point therefore not only did he install charging points nationwide but devised ways in which his customers can rapid charge at convenient places (malls, casinos, big businesses, etc) also at key points nationwide to ensure customers can make it cross country, he'll expand upon this greatly over the next few quarters. As battery technology improves so will charging technologies as we're only at the forefront here not the end point as suggested. Show me where GM/Ford or any other mfg has every taken any consideration into this challenge? Charging, even on a road trip of several hundred miles MAY require a stop of up to 45 mins per charge to gain another couple hundred miles range, most gas station stops are 10-15 mins minimum so even if that does not improve is it really that big an issue? Elon is WAY ahead of your thinking here
#5 - "People's Republic of California" using road taxes as their own coffers - Alert the press! Call out the national guard! Really... this is the best you can come up with?!?!?! You make it sound as though it's something new Show me a single state or governmental body that HASN'T done exactly what you claim. Cali has done this with school taxes, pension taxes, gas taxes, sales taxes, etc... I beg you to show me a state that hasn't so stop being so self-righteous and wake up. You can thank those who believe politicians have OUR best interests in mind but please wake up first
#6 - There will be a loss of taxes caused by use of electric cars who's owners are not then buying gasoline which is taxed. California already has proposed instead of allowing electric car incentives with the thought of cutting down the countries usage of gas and reliance on other countries (being held hostage) to actually taxing electric cars more so they can continue to claim money. Does anyone here think that those massive oil and car mfg lobby groups will sit by and watch their profits disappear?!?! You're nuts if you think so. it is a short matter of time before legislation is passed punishing instead of incenting use of electric cars - think of how the big 3 and suppliers have already made it all but impossible for Tesla to sell in Texas, NY, MICH to name a few states who's union lobby groups and dealership owners have assured that Tesla cannot sell their cars direct.
#7 - Indirect cost of cheap gas is poor roads - ugh. The direct cost of poor roads is unions assuring that roads stay messed up, that government misappropriations keep money coming in but that it rarely goes to where it's needed. You think if we doubled the money coming in that the roads would be twice as good? It's greed and theft but no one cares about that. Taxes as a percentage of cost have risen greatly, prices have dropped only marginally, income to them is still high yet they beg for more - welcome to government 101 son. 4CAMGT you seem to get it
#8 - if anyone here thinks that Elon is stupid or just doesn't get it you need to do your homework before speaking nonsense. He started PayPal and became a billionaire. He then started Tesla with a grand plan which he has executed brilliantly despite expected major push-back fro unions nad the Big 3. Tesla MC isn't about just building cars but the entire ecosystem that goes along with it that no one seemed to think about. He also started SpaceX (most everyone thought it couldn't be done) and Solarcity (which is now part of Tesla). At Solarcity he is branching ot into areas no one else thought about including the military and 3rd world countries. The electric companies and 2nd and 3rd tier supplier should be VERY scared at his visions there. He may be ambitious but he is anything but dumb.
#9 - upcoming cars - the Porsche Mission-E looks AMAZING! I'd be all over that. The NeoEP9 looks cool, the Rimac Concept One has incredible performance (sans Richard Hammond) We are only at the cusp here no different than when ICE cars first came out in mass some 115+/- years ago. So what every one of them isn't perfect we've come a LONG way in the last decade of Tesla watch as those whom embraced the idea as being the future invest and create some incredible toys. Just like what Ferrari is to ICE cars there will be a forerunner that will be the Ferrari of electric cars (it won't be Ferrari)

Off my soapbox now

The car markets are going towards autonomously driven cars (when I think of many of the drivers here in San Diego or Phoenix that may not be a bad thing!). Most people don't seek any enjoyment in driving it is a an exercise of need not enjoyment. As certain electric cars become a symbol of wealth/status rest assured there will be a long line for them as well

 

How about that the fact that the palace still uses UK built cars ranging from brand new to 50 years old...

 

I will say this... if the Model 3 doesn't go well for tesla... and they have the same issues they have had with the other cars their sycophants are going to turn on them...

 

I concurr that the Model 3 will be a major test for them. Elon Brought out his Model S be it release was late. The much anticipated Model X was delayed due to major design issues with those gull wing doors (design mistake from the get go). The Model 3 will test both their output capacity as they have astronomical goals and they now need to appease buyers who will look a t this car as their primary car versus just a 2nd or 3rd car to play with so "down time" will cause major upset.

My guess, Tesla won't make their numbers they promised over the next 2-3 quarters and stock will get whacked hard

 

It will be interesting to see how the states, especially California, will tax electric vehicles. I'd like to see a bill introduced that permanently banned any type of tax on them, then watch the legislature squirm.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

so you want to see that they the electric car is never taxed in california?

 

I agree that this is a very likely scenario many people are blatantly ignoring.

The problem with all of there blind followers is much of them have ZERO experience with the cars.

These people with zero experience are the same ones shouting how perfect the cars are and how evil car dealers are...

Well... when they have to take their cars that have PLENTY of problems to a service facility hours and hours away (hopefully the car can get there on one charge) then not get a loaner tesla... Also service appointmens are currently 3 weeks out at many locations... so no car for 3 weeks? Tesla is giving loaners to model x and s owners currently but not sure if they will for the 3. Also it is taking weeks, I know of a model x (the owner is a youtuber) who took delivery in may with issues and still doesn't have his new car back. I don't think he had 200 miles on the car.

The excitable crowd is going to turn and maybe go the other way on him.

HE spoke last night about production hell... Umm... he is going to have SERVICE hell soon... all mostly because he doesn't have dealers.

How are they going to deal with trades? Yes I know they deal with it now... but he is anticipation more cars in one quarter than he has in 5 years of production.

I know of a guy who was hired to be a part of TESLAs legal team... he quit after 1 day because of how disorganized it was.

I think the company is largely disorginzed and adding more cars to it is only going to make things worse not better. I think they are getting themselves into a more finicky buyer.

I think buyers expectations are TOO HIGH. They all think they are getting a model S for 100k less and its just a little smaller. The car is going to be lacking features, lacking service and likely to be problematic for the first few months to the first few years.

People ***** about michigan and texas not allowing direct sales... Texas is HUGE. you can live HUNDREDS AND HUNDREDS of miles away from the one or two tesla facilities. I actually think in Texas the state is protecting the consumer. I know this will be an unpopular thought... but in the case of texas... they might be doing there community some good. Those that want to work around it can. THere are teslas in texas.

 

To paraphrase Bob Lutz, let us be thankful. We lived in the golden age of sports cars. That age is dimming, but we have two or more decades still left. Let us enjoy those.

Best,

Andres

 

Mods - can we move this thread to general automotive discussion?