Crystal ball time; what will happen to 4C prices after production ends ? ?

I think the Lotus Elisa is the benchmark for how carbon fiber chassis, affordable cars will age.

I also think that they prove that the Alfa 4C should hold its value quite well, but also that condition and documentation is key.

Matt

 

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Top image is stock. The middle image I lowered the roof but kept the cowel/belt line stock. On the bottom image I lowered the cowel/beltline to about where the Elise/Dino is. The visual effect is the same as if the car was lengthened. The wheelbase of the 4C is the similar to a Dino 246GT which most people like the proportions.

Freeman

 

It looks like your argument is that the car is built more robust so it won't degrade, did I get that right? But you completely neglect at F=MV^2 and a car goes a LOT faster than a bike and weights more to boot so the forces are likely more than 100x that of a bike. Not sure I buy your conclusion.

 

No you didn't quite get that right. That is not my argument at all. My argument is that a bicycle and a car are two totally distinct things designed totally differently. As is an airplane, for example 787, for that matter.

It is just invalid to say that because "a bicycle my friend had has problem x it aplies to all cars (and airplanes) because they both have composite material. As you said, for example, F=MV^2 and don't you think the engineers realize that and make engineering accordingly? What about all the other factors? Like consequence of catasropic failure ( in terms of loss of life and financial), lifespan, etc etc. My strong hunch is that Boeing considers these and more when building an airliner out of composites designed to last for more than 30 years for example.

A McLaren F1 is an old car and seems to be fine on track, however whether it is or isn't does not mean anything other than it is possible to make composite heavy car that works. It really says nothing about a bike or a plane or even another car designed by different people making different engineering decisions.




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I think i like the third one the best. Your work is really great.

 

Thank you. I think Alfa had a missed opportunity with the 4C. It’s unfinished. Companies like Porsche create multiple versions of a core idea and are listening to their customers. They render these products passionately to the nines. One of the reasons why the manual gearbox made a welcome return on their performance models. A complete sports car experience should include fun to drive, involving, a fantastic sound and of course, dynamic aesthetics. Comfort of course as well. Certain sports cars are so drop dead gorgeous and contain these characteristics that their appeal just keeps growing. These are my measurements for a great sports car. A sports car should not be pragmatic. That’s why we have Trucks, CUV’s and SUV’s for!

 

Now from a visual point of view that is one thing and probably a subjective one. However, for the overall car, I suppose many would disagree with your view that Alfa missed the opportunity. I agree with your view that a great sports car (particularly collectible ones) should not be pragmatic--but I think the 4C is almost the prototypical non-pragmatic (in the no compromise sense) car if there ever was one. I am not sure I understand using Porsche as an example of non-pragmatic sports cars. In fact, at a competitive price point, if anything they are the masters of making super pragmatic fantastic sports cars. I also think the latest Porsche design language is really great.

Those that like the 4C think it offers a driving experience completely unique and one only available in a lightweight pure car that by definition is not refined and has compromises. They believe that the 4C is great precisely because, as you say above, it is not pragmatic and makes extreme compromises in the interest of providing a light weight sporting driving experience. What you consider lack of refinement or being "unfinished" is precisely what gives the car character. 4C lovers are the same type of people that drive a Challenge Stradale and love it rather than saying the ride is a bit rough and there is too much vibration and road noise--or the car is clearly unfinished as I can see the chassis welds!

In fact, myself, I don't quite understand how Alfa could possibly make a hand built car like the 4C for that price. Kudos to Alfa for having the guts to make such a car. One that is really purely for the pleasure of driving and not, from the start, trying to step into a swiss army knife practical role that is much easier to market and has a wider mass appeal. Of course--those swiss army knife practical cars basically have zero collector value.

The 4C is certainly less pragmatic than pretty much any Porsche on the market (no counting the specials like the CGT or RS cars). There is zero storage, no power steering and no gizmos. It is a car that is not made for large mass production or to be a practical car that you can drive every day. The car makes all kinds of compromises in interest of being lightweight.

Porsche, on the other hand, has managed to create fantastic every day derivable sports cars for a similar price--and they do a great job at that--it is just something different. However, ask yourself, in the year 2030, is a Boxster from 2016 or a 4C from 2016 going to be a more interesting car to have in a 5+ car collection in terms of providing an exciting driving experience? I know what I would pick and it isn't going to be a 15 year old boxster!

The transmission choice is one of preference really. My knee jerk reaction personally was that a manual would be cool--however, with time I think the transmission fits the ethos of the car very well. That is trying to combine technology and modern materials in a package while still maintaining the light weight sports car ethos. In that respect I think Alfa has done a great job providing a fun driving experience that is unique at any budget.

Anyway, those are my two cents as to why I think Alfa has produced something special in the 4C. It will be interesting to see how collectors value these going forward.

 

I need to clarify. What I meant in saying unfinished, I was mostly looking at the proportional styling opportunities. I’ve had a variety of sports cars. All have been with manual gearboxes. Through my work, I’ve experienced many double clutch gearboxes. They’re great. I just prefer a manual, especially the type of driving that I do. I’m not a racer. I drive to savor every curve, every shift, every sound. I’m not in a hurry to go nowhere. I love small sports cars. New sports cars have gotten too big and heavy. They’re close to losing the plot. My smallest car is a Super 7. That’s about as light (1200 lbs) and visceral as a car gets. One of my current favorites in the garage is a 914/6 with 230hp. Unbelievable that it weighs 2000 lbs with an all steel body! That’s what I call fun and makes great music!

Freeman

 

Would be curious on your thoughts on this version of the 4C--I think it looks quite cool:

 

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Always great to see creativity! I’m more attracted to pure timeless forms with edited graphics such as the Alfa Romeo 2uettottanta Concept.

 

4CamGT, your renderings look great but they're drawings. Making the real product is a lot more difficult as I'm sure you can imagine. The car is already quite low, making it lower would have presented some issues. I've seen plenty in person and I think they look great, including the wheel size. It's Federal law that the wheels cannot be outside of the fenders so, as a result, most manufacturers tuck them in slightly. Get some spacers and you're done.

 

Lotus Elise has a bonded aluminum chassis, not CF.

 

You’re right, I’m thinking of the whole front end.

Which still tells a lot.

Matt

 

Everyone is certainly entitled to their opinion, but I think you're in the minority when it comes to the appearance of the 4C.

 

That little car is perfection and can be hurled in to and out of corners like no one’s business. Spyders are dipping into the low 40’s now. That’s just too much fun for that money. I can’t see them not going up in value in the next few years. They are just too special. I’m thinking Dino or Stratos following for sure.

 

The reason the roof is the way it is is so people can track it with helmets on. Life is a bunch of compromises.

246 Dino had 180 HP 0 to 60 in 8 sec
Alfa 4c has 238 HP 0 to 60 in 4.3 sec

How much faster do you need it to go?

I don't buy the "manual option" issue either. Look at Corvettes -- they are phasing them out next year also. Less than 20% of all C7's are manuals.

If anything I wish it had a normally aspirated V6 but it would have been heavier and bigger.

Its biggest issue is people THINK they want a sports car today but what they really want is a sport GT car that looks like a sports car. I imagine 90% of the people who looked it tried to sit it and said "no way".

 

This is absolutely 100% the truth. I think the other issue is one of numbers. Most buyers still don't seem to understand the concept of power to weight ratio, and too many people scoff at 237 hp without ever driving the car.

 

That's true too. It's like "big dong" syndrome.

This car is a PITA around town. I freely admit it. But get it out of town a bit and it's a ball of fun. That's what it was meant for, not showing off your "badges" to the guy in the next car at the stoplight.

 

To the OP's question, I think it will appreciate in the long term.

Perhaps styling is important to long term value (although the examples cited of the 360 and Elise, no matter how pretty - they are - don't make the case) but I think the macro-trends around automotive carbon footprint and emissions will be more critical, particularly given the Paris climate accord.

The new 911 has an 8-speed PDK. That's got nothing to do with driver need and everything to do with emissions and fuel saving technologies. Anyone want a manual with 8 gears? Didn't think there'd be a rush. The WSJ recently quoted the CFO of Continental (the tier 1 supplier) as saying the German manufacturers will cease development of IC engines in 2023.

To me, the writing is on the wall for IC-engined cars as we know them today. In 15 years those of us still using a DD will likely be driving an electric vehicle. I'm guessing the occasional use IC engined vehicles we keep will be those offering a very different driving experience. I think the 4c does this.

 

In the long term but you they are getting ahead of themselves. I can see almost all hybrid and electric in 15 years but not all electric. The Germans are going to continue IC engine production for many years to use in hybrids(maybe not in the EU, but they make most of their cars in Mexico and other countries anyway). Until they can manufacture batteries with less pollution the whole save the world argument is mute anyway. And let's not forget what that would do to the existing electric grid.

The 4C will depreciate like any other sports Alfa or Maserati. They I think will end up building close to 7000 of the little buggers so not that rare. They built under 1500 Junior Z's and Giulia SS's and under 1000 GTA's for comparison.

 

I agree with this. But in the US there will probably be about 3000 of them and over time less than half will still be in decent shape. That's still a lot of cars though.

IMO, the coupe will be more highly prized in the long run because it looks better and is rarer. People today like Dino Gt's for the same reason. The difference is the Dino is really hot inside so you want the pop top but the 4c has good HVAC.

But I still don't think it will ever by a highly valued car. It will have normal depreciation similar to a Maserati or McLaren.

The 4c will be the last nutty car anyone ever attempted to make as a production vehicle. That's not a reason to like it. That just shows what a pitiful state the automotive world is today.

True car enthusiasts are now replaced by marketeers and bean counters -- even in Italy.

 

This is definitely true. The driving skills for most people today are pitiful but they THINK they are great drivers and want a sports car.

There is plenty of room, I can get in and drive it comfortably and I am 6'6", but the process of getting out is clumsy and difficult. I just about have to crawl out so forget about driving it around town if you have to get out of the car. BUT, that doesn't mean it isn't super fun to drive. Many years ago I had an Alfa Spider and it wasn't fast, didn't handle well, and didn't ride well but was SUPER fun to drive. This is the same but harder ingress/egress and it performs very well.

 

How the hell did you drive an Alfa Spider at 6'6? My dad has one which I drive occasionally and I'm only 5'10 and my knees are pretty damn high. It has the worst driving position of any car I've ever driven. You need super short legs and longer arms.