What's the cause of the car market slowdown and is it like other ones?

I'm 30 so not quite as young as Dakota but the Daytona has never done anything for me. I don't know anyone my age who likes it or even looks twice at it. I do hold the 250 and 275 in high regards, though.

 

Agree im a little older than you and its going to be hard to move these older cars at these values down the road imo. Every car collector buys up what they loved when they were kids, doesn't mean future generations will love them too. My dad has alot of old cars in his garage, i think they're meh, the market says otherwise. I think his mercedes 280se cab is a pile of junk looks and performance wise, he thinks its worth $300-400k, good luck getting someone my age to ever say that's their dream car or pay that. The daytona is an ok car to me but Im definitely never shelling out $700k for one, I think if you ask 100 cars guys my age if they'd buy a daytona or a carrera gt for the same money, 100 out of 100 would say CGT, maybe 1 or 2 may be a daytona guy.

With how awesome cars are today and how many models are coming out, its going to be a tough sell on these old classics one day. These older guys now, they're buying up childhood dream cars from a time when not that many cool cars existed. My twins being born in october will have quite the plethora of cool cars to pick from their childhood one day, its not an apples to apples comparison, how many cool cars are they making in 2019 vs 1957?

Still think leasing new exotics is the best, these 2 came in my email this week, no maintenance and your car will turn on and run more often than not, cant say the same about a classic.

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I'm a few years older than you and the Daytona looks never did anything for me. I still don't get the prices they command. It's like a 400/412 to me looks-wise (underwhelming and especially the sidemarker design), but not even close price-wise and both have V12s...

 

I agree there are tons of options now. I think I'm the same age as you so thankfully I have a limited set of cars I grew up with that I'd love to own and are still relatively attainable. For me it's predominantly 1990s cars with a little bit going into the mid 80s and mid 00s. For me and Ferrari it would cover the F40 through Stradale and favoring the newer models in that time. Porsche it's the 993TT and CGT. BMW it's the E39 M5 and Alpina B12 6.0 (E38). Nissan it's the R34 GTR. The McLaren F1 is my dream car (always will be) and it's right in the middle of that time span, but it's unobtanium.

 

Leasing is great to fight depreciation and tax structuring but at the end of the day say u stay in the same caliber as ur RR at 2k a month with 30k down, say each of ur lease are 3 years old. Per lease u will have spent down 30k+72k of payment so 102k over 3 years and at the end u don’t own anything. I’m not saying it’s bad, it’s like renting vs buying. It’s a choice.


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Have you ever tried to sell an exotic? It’s not easy at all and a complete pain, there is a price to pay for convenience. I don’t see it as a bad deal paying $3k x 36 + $26k for a $350k mclaren 720s with hypercar looks and performance And no maintenance. I spent $30k one year maintaining my slr, was a hard lesson and one I never want to learn again with a classic car.

 

Yep- I sold my car in 1 month here on fchat. It was pretty easy for me. Maybe the testarossa appeals more I don’t know. That being said , nothing wrong in leasing it’s a choice


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>> Have you ever tried to sell an exotic?

The worst part about selling an extraordinary car are the tourists who pull up in a rusted out hulks to take pictures or perhaps con the owner out of a test drive. My brother was selling a '68 Maserati Mistral himself and it became unbearable. He got to the point where he would demand $100 just to stand next to it. Bonkers!

 

only buy cars that you want to actually own, because you may never be able to get rid of it !

 

Agreed


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I’m 50. Daytona does nothing for me.

Buy what you like and want to keep. For me it’s F355 and other 90’s to 00’s cars.

Problem with new mclarens is that you can’t work on them yourselves really and you can run into a 30k bill easier than others. you won’t get a lifetime warranty so will you really be able to easily sell it down the road?...

If you do sell it, it won’t be for a profit.

Robb

 

Agreed...my friend has a 720s and I will add that on top of the bills it doesn’t sound that amazing


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This thread is depressing. Thanks!

 

Car crash in the early 90’s was a global recession.

Most sports car companies lost their ass.

I don’t think people had recovered from the bubble bursting in the 80’s.

Production numbers were down on Porsche, Ferrari, Lambo, etc.

Then 1995 turned it around. At least that’s how I remember it.

Robb

 

I do not really see the appeal with the daytona, weirdly enough I like the 400 series. Tom Cruise in Rain Man, did it for me.
Cars that I long for are the early 2k cars. Enzo, 360, 550. I currently own an 05' Quattroporte. Will most likely move into a Bently CGT, or Granturismo. End goal being a California.

The Daytona just has no memory or relevance for me, even being a car guy, just missing then context. Most my age would not even know what is was or distinguish them from a gtc/4

 

Listening to this pile of gloom and doomers is pathetic. The car hobby and exotics as well as their fans and enthusiasts are there. Have you been to a Cars & Coffee event lately, Monterey car week, Amelia Island? They are packed to ridiculous levels. That is obvious evidence that there are still plenty of car guys out there...... and it's growing.

Are there challenges? Absolutely. Are the 20 year olds burdened with debt (and useless degrees... as we as being told that their masculinity is toxic).... yes. Maybe some don't want to drive.... or succeed in life. Who cares? There will always be those that are willing to figure out how to succeed and rise above the flock, and they will want these cars. Ferraris are iconic and a dream.... even for the young.

I have met and given rides to dozens of kids through 30 and 40 year olds and I'm here to tell you, the dream isn't dead. I gave a ride to a 20 something today in my McLaren. He asked about other cars and I told him about the CS. He knew the car and told me all about the differences between the CS and the 360 and he said...... "One day".

Does this kid looks like he will want a self driving car?

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Yea, I remember a Testarossa selling for $330k back then, ouch!

 

Classic cars are a fraction to maintain. An absolute fraction

 

Excellent post! EXCELLENT!

Plus with the largest transfer of wealth in history coming... we may see things differently.

Also, concerning the market. There is NOTHING wrong with a steady market. I AM SO SICK AND TIRED OF THE ITS ON FIRE OR FIRE SALE MENTALITY.

This fire or fire sale thing is so ridiculous. Its a bunch of former mortgage brokers getting in the market hyping crap and making a quick buck. The 6 speed market and of course the porsche market.

Now the new car market for Porsches is completely whored out. Anyone want a GT2RS at sticker? Let me know. Im serious. Too bad for the suckers that paid 150 over on a car that wasn't really limited.

Everyone is upset because they can't buy a new car from a manufacture and make 100k

 

33 here. New cars, exotics and alike, do nothing for me, but I think I'm an anomaly. I respect them, sure, but to me, something with spirit and patina comes from older models that have that smell, lack of driver aides, and command respect to be driven. A F12? Cool, love the style, but what % of that car can be driven by everyday Joe outside the track anyway? The best driving times I had were sliding my MGA into a corner and having to really work the gears to maintain speed lol.

To each their own for sure, but the love of cars, and urge to own them is absolutely not dead. Kids eyes still go wide, and they point when they see a spaceship. To many, these, old/new, are spaceships the 1-5% will own, and many an eager eyed kid will say "one day..." and some will make that a reality.

I was out with a fellow FChatter in his BBi this weekend, and just standing there waiting for him to swing by, seeing it drive up was like "wow, that thing is EPIC". It's so low (and NOT red), it's this enigma, growling towards you. It was impossible to not smile.

This market has "slowed" VS stupidity of the 2012's-2014's. I sent a lot of cars to Europe during those years, to frenzied people buying into the uptick. The funny thing in froth like that? People care far less about condition, they're so fixated on paying "todays" price, and not tomorrows, that they neglect all rational pre-purchase thought, and just dive in. Analytically if we looked at how many "dealers" popped up overnight during those 4 years, and got left holding the keys and burned to the ground, we'd likely see a rather large number. It's musical chairs, and you don't want to lose, you only hope it normalizes and eases back to "reality" (that's in quotes because that's purely subjective...)

 

Well said!


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Amen to that!


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My observations ~40 years of driving and collecting, buying and selling:

• There is absolutely a generational aspect. When the SCCA was formed in 1948, guess which Marque had the highest representation among the inaugural membership? It was Mercer (5) a car most enthusiasts today could not identify . Popularity of cars goes in cycles depending on what cars now-affluent buyers cherish from their youth.
• No car that wasn't scarce/expensive/highly desirable/milestone when new, has any chance of being sustainably valuable when its old. In general, NO truly mass produced car, ie production >1000 or so is ever sustainably valuable. Mass produced car = used car. The biggest hit to 60's muscle car valuations has been the 'reissue' of those same cars by their manufacturers.
• The business cycle probably matters, but not in ways that are very clear. I suspect the run up in valuations since 2008 had more to do with the absence of exciting investment opportunities post crash. But that certainly didn't explain the runup in the 80's.
• What your friends value and support has huge impact. What you collect needs social utility. The Radwood movement is fascinating, driven by an organized celebration of 80's era of cars. Radwood gives you a reason to want a 944t and show it off. Vintage racecars were worthless until the Vintage racing series were established (and are now in decline) Classic era (30's) grand tourers have a community now with all the different rally and touring organizations. Concours/car shows, Cars & coffee, rallys, vintage racing and car clubs are the essential backbone of all collecting because they are social.
• La plus ça change, la plus c'est la mėme chose. This debate and these dynamics have raged since the beginning of car collecting Pick up a copy of Ralph Stein's 'The Great Cars,' listen to his assessment of Jaguars as nouveau riche posers, while Invictas are true thorobreds. Everything has its season.
• Car enthusiasm won't die, because cars are a prime platform for connoisseur-ship. The history, sporting pedigree, engineering, design, and appeal to the senses make cars an ideal subject for discussion, debate, and study, just like art, wine, food, furniture. That isn't going away due to automation or VR, any more than equestrian enthusiasm expired with the advent of the horseless carriage.

In summary I'd say look at this question over the arc of history, not picking any one or two 5-10 year 'trader' timeframe. Car collecting is here to stay.
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Well said. Not sure about the 1,000 number given the rise in population and expansion of wealth across the globe, but, hey, car guys have to argue, right?