What's the cause of the car market slowdown and is it like other ones?

This raises the issue (to me) regarding the 1,000 number, or whatever smallish production number versus the population, except possibly looking at the ratio in another metric like done for crime statistics, health events, etc. that are expressed in number per 100,000 or million of the population. I wonder if any studies have ever tried to normalize this change across time of the potential buying pool based on the generational aspect?

 

I think cars with production runs of 10,000 will end up being collectible, and even this number is arbitrary. Hell, from 1965 to 1988, how many Ferrari buyers were there for the old bangers? Maybe a 1,000?

 

1000 is far too strict and arbitrary, but the point is fair, if not the number itself. Feel free to dump your high production f40 on me if you feel strongly about that magic number and I will relieve you of the albatross.
There’s lots of cars that are highly desirable with prod numbers north of 1000. But the message that an undesirable car doesn’t often just become desirable with age, is fair.
A Porsche 924 or 1984 corvette or Ford Taurus will never be appealing to me no matter how old they get.

 

Yeah but Porsche 911 don’t really make sense with prod numbers... prices seem to continue to go up and lots of talk of them as collectible.

60k made of the 993 alone... then look at how many of the other series... why are those more valued than an f355 of similar era where they only made 10k

The production numbers only tell one side of the story.

993 not that exciting a drive btw... just last air cooled car and not crazy on the maintenance.

Robb

 

I think Porsche has played out the GT3, 2,RS, blah, blah, blah. I thought these things were 'special' and 'rare'. I drove past the Porker store yesterday and there were at least 10-12 GT3, GT2RS, GT3RS sitting outside on the lot, brand new with stickers still in the window.

I have driven them. They are good, but it's just another fast beetle.

 

LOL!

 

I had a great laugh before work, thanks for that lol.

 

Some interesting data in there. Not surprisingly though it looks like their values are rather... optimistic, with the minimum they list really being more like the average. Shame they don't show the other appendices.

 

Are we the horse owning faithful of 1902??

I think it's a cycle. I think student loans have killed a lot of "I want to own stuff", because stuff is just not affordable.

I've seen a recent trend in the VAN market swinging back around.

sjd

 

My most important distinction is 'hand built vs. mass produced,' and 1000 is sort of an upper limit on hand built (or at least, not assembly line) cars. A 300SL and an XKE are equally interesting, important and similarly engineered cars. But the Mercedes was built largely by hand on a manual assembly line with total production of ~1000. Jag production totaled ~75,000. That a concours Jag is still worth 25% the value of an equivalent Gullwing is a testament to it's incredible popular appeal, but the lines will never converge. Hand built / low production is certainly no guarantee of extraordinary value (rarity doesn't equal valuable) but it's a prerequisite (A 'necessary' albeit not 'sufficient' condition!

Like everything in economics, it reduces to Supply & Demand. Supply is static (although, LOL, there are suspiciously more Stutz Bearcats and Mercer Raceabouts every year and plenty of Alfa GTAs and early Ferraris with the same chassis number) where demand ebbs and flows with fashion, car culture, demographics. But I'd argue that despite short term fluctuations, valuation relationships stay pretty constant over the long haul.

 

Everyone is entitled to an opinion but I’m curious if the Daytona haters have ever driven a 365GTB/4 or is your opinion based only on the looks of the car? They are an amazing car to run thru the gears with an exhaust note that is a symphony. To me, it’s the combination of clean lines and driving that appeals.

 

Its a huge leap to go from someone saying they don't care for it to calling them a hater. I don't particularly care for the looks of the Daytona either, but I hardly hate the car. That being said, if I was going to spend a half million bucks on a car, it certainly wouldn't be one that I don't love the looks of, regardless of the driving experience. In addition with how few miles these cars are accumulating nowadays, I'd say the driving experience is far less relevant than the looks.

 

It's the looks. I know the Miata makes a good track car but I can't stand its looks either. Same applies to lots of others, not just the Daytona. Sorry if I offended anyone.

 

Heck if you want to talk about undervalued cars. Dodge Vipers. Get a GTS... you start cutting down the numbers on those cars and an acr say in black with no stripes is about one of 34... I mean... they are SPECIAL. They are ICONIC... They are ZERO maintenance. Fun cars still to this day and a fraction of the price of the cars it competed with and beat the snot out of

 

I’m definitely not a hater on the Daytona. I’m pretty much a fan of all Ferrari’s... have not driven or ridden in a Daytona.

But there are just many more F-cars I would choose over it - and we’re not even talking prices in that discussion.

It’s more of a case of what you prefer (era wise) and other traits and why.

Robb

 

Didn't mean to offend with the hate comment, and again everyone is entitled to their opinion. I get and respect that you don't care for the looks, but there's a reason the Daytonas trade for $600K in today's market, and it's not their looks. The Columbo V12 delivering 350 Bhp, 6 Weber carbs, perfect 50/50 weight distribution. It was the ultimate expression of the front engine V12, much more capable than the prettier 250 GT SWB and the 275 GTBs that preceded it.

 

If you're talking creme de la creme, sure 1,000 is probably a good number. But for mere mortals, we'll take the XKEs.

 

Totally about the looks.
Not a hater but also not going to apologize for having a contrary opinion. As a a 360 owner I hear lots of opinions too. Nobody here insulted the car, we just said we don’t share the passion for them. And as I suggested earlier, it may be a generational thing.
For the money they go for, I’d have to LOVE the looks of it as well. There’s lots of great driving, great sounding cars.

 

Back to the original topic, as others have said on this thread, other than the unicorns that seem to go straight up, the classic car market oscillates like every market. My view is that the classic car market has bigger swings than the equity markets each way because of the lack of liquidity and uneven dissemination of information. In general the trend is up and to the right, beating inflation in the long run.

I think the market got ahead of itself in 2015 and 2016, and the best I can tell prices have dropped 20-30% from the peak. Normal market gyrations is my guess and not due to anyone factor unlike 2007/08.

I do think that prices are reasonably stable at the moment, so its a good time to buy a car as prices have dropped from the peak, availability is good and there's not a lot of competition.

 

All excellent points.

Also, as previously mentioned classic cars were used as an alternative asset. People had enough money in real estate, they had enough in the market they were parking money. it brought in new people for better or worse. Some will leave... and thats fine.

Also, the buyers of classic cars are changing. I know many in my ciricle are switching to newer cars but they dont want to lose any money on new stuff... I usually just look at them with a blank stare.

 

Great posts. I would just like to add I have been told the elimination of the 1031 exchanges for automobiles as part of the tax reform act of 2017 (went into effect in 2018) had somewhat of an impact in pushing ahead some deals in 2017. Thus, you would expect a bit of a "suck out" in 2018/19. I don't think this is a full explanation, I think it is merely a short term factor, but since it is recent, its worth considering.

All I can tell you guys is I see a ton of kids at cars and coffee events. It actually feels like more now than in the past, but this is anecdotal evidence. Maybe they are all looking for more content for YT and IG.

My prediction is the more appliance like and automated they make regular cars, the more people will be fascinated with speciality cars.

 

They drive like a cement mixer at lower city speeds. On the highway they wake up and become the car it was designed to be. Unfortunately, most of these owners will drive in cement mixer mode, rather then highway mode, or if at all. The car to my eye is well..kinda ugly. Honestly dont understand the interest in it. Its kinda bland at the end of the day.

 

Ferrari had a hard time selling them back in the day. I remember they had to beg a guy to buy the last droptop.

 

Please do correct me if I am wrong, but there hasn't been a 'crash' as I see it. Being reference points to bubbles have been the dot com and subprime mania early this century. Both of those saw bell-like curves. I've seen 20% drops in the mid-tier, but I don't see anything dramatic in blue chips and everyday vehicles.

If anything, I argue the 'softening' is a good thing. I rather have moderate changes than large swings. As far as future appreciation, I think it all depends on the nature of future vehicles and legislation. I think the best thing to happen to vintage Ferrari will be the adoption of autonomous and electrical.

 

I would argue that in the TR world it’s been pretty steep. Quite a lot of cars in the 20k miles were being sold in the 150k in the 2015 period.Same car is now stable at 100k.
There was a grey/silver one on BAT that the owner bought at auction at peak at around 160k in 15’, he has been trying to sell it desperately since then and best he got was 110k bid.
I don’t know about crash but correction? Certainly


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