812 Market Dynamics | Page 6 | FerrariChat

812 Market Dynamics

Discussion in 'F12/812' started by 1881, May 19, 2019.

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  1. Solid State

    Solid State F1 Veteran
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    Because they are built into the ECMs of the tier suppliers. No manufacturer makes their own options. Soon, if not already, the OEMs will have to pay more to not have them come standard from the suppliers.

    Ferrari was always late to the party in this regard because they would not have to integrate or warranty them and their cars really didn't need to compete in the gadget area. Now that they are public, they seem to feel that they need to offer every option to grab every sale. A lot of this is driven by the Internet youth jabbering on about their connectivity and apps, etc. Your getting what you wanted and this impacts the specialness of the cars IMO. Big, screaming V12, soft great smelling leather, an exhilarating driving experience and a beautiful body design - sign me up. Auto Start/Stop, big flat screens, hybrids, auto braking and cruise - that's DD nonsense.
     
  2. Bundy

    Bundy Formula 3

    May 18, 2011
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    Anir
    To be fair, I suspect at least some of these features are being forced on Ferrari by new environmental and safety regs.


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
     
  3. FFantastic

    FFantastic Formula Junior

    Mar 23, 2015
    857
    UK Riviera
    Lane assist......in a Ferrari???? Auto stop start............have they seen the price of these starter motors???????Auto braking ............oh yes just in case I forget to????? Nanny options.
     
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  4. Solid State

    Solid State F1 Veteran
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    One of the least necessary for a Ferrari is dynamic cruise control. Ferrari used to call it "Pit Speed" and it was bare bones. I tried it once to see what the buttons and dial did. OK it worked so who cares.

    The combination of dynamic cruise control, lane departure correction and auto braking are effectively autopilot. I'm sure that's THE selling feature for the Pista or other performance supercar. I'm definitely not interested in an 812 VS without it. :rolleyes:
     
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  5. NeilF8888

    NeilF8888 Formula 3

    Feb 10, 2005
    1,147
    Miami Beach
    Ha, ha just great!


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  6. ChipG

    ChipG Formula 3

    May 26, 2011
    1,722
    Santa Monica, CA
    Sorry if it was mentioned but how many 812’s will be produced in the total production run, not cars already made? I have a deposit on one for $339 pending PPI
     
  7. F355 Fan 82

    F355 Fan 82 F1 Veteran

    Jul 22, 2006
    9,063
    Trust me 812 is not an investment, I had mine for less than a year and lost around $100k. Still was the best car I've ever owned, but we've got twins coming in a few weeks, I kept my 575 bc i adore it, sold the 812 and got an suv now, wish I could've kept them all but condos in south beach getting more than 2 spots is tough.
     
  8. 09Scuderia

    09Scuderia Formula 3
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    Nov 20, 2011
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    Ferrari changed the game....way too many new releases. Canceled our 812 order. Not taking that hit..$$
     
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  9. dustman

    dustman F1 Veteran
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    Jun 12, 2007
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  10. gzachary

    gzachary Formula Junior
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    Jan 10, 2011
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    Any thoughts that a 2018 or 2019 812 could hold value or gain value as the last V12 NA, especially with the introduction of GPF? I say that because with an 812 producing 336 gms/km of CO2 and the requirement is 95 gms/km in 2020, Ferrari will be in the fine zone. I am not sure how big of a penalty it will be. Nor how they are going to calculate this, nor how Ferrari will process this into pricing, etc.

    And then there is the GPF issue affect on the sound.

    Curious to get your opinion and others as I have my 812 now.
     
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  11. Eilig

    Eilig F1 Rookie
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    If NA V12 does go away, and if GPF does have predicted ill effects, and if you're a person who doesn't like hybrid/turbo and cars littered with "driver aids," then it would sure make sense to HOLD your car long-term, if for no other reason you'll never again be able to buy another new Ferrari w/o all this junk!
     
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  12. F355 Fan 82

    F355 Fan 82 F1 Veteran

    Jul 22, 2006
    9,063
    At $400k plus it’s not holding value at all. My 575 is probably rarer only 2k made, more beautiful and it has a v12 and it’s $80-90k right now. $400k production car ain’t holding value my man.
     
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  13. JTSE30

    JTSE30 F1 Rookie

    Oct 1, 2004
    3,245
    Austin TX
    Probably by the time production ends there will be fewer than 800 produced (812 coupes) for USA, that is far less than F12 (~2000 produced for USA), etc. There will be probably about 800 of the Spiders produced for USA so probably something like 1600 total. And, the Spiders will apparently all include heat soaked, heavy, noise muffling GPFs.

    Plus if NOTHING follows the 812, there is "pressure" on pricing to remain steady over the long term since no V12 will succeed it (at this time it is expected a V8 hybrid will succeed the 812, Leiters has said in regards to future V12 no hybrid, no turbo, no downsizing, that doesn't leave much of any options...)

    The 575 had 3 generations following, each significantly improved, but, the current idea is if nothing follows the 812 (i.e. no future V12) then this is a completely new scenario, the only question will be if the Ferrari V12 experience is desirable or not once Ferrari no longer provides them (outside of Icona)
     
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  14. F355 Fan 82

    F355 Fan 82 F1 Veteran

    Jul 22, 2006
    9,063
    800 is a lot, how many 360 stradales are in the us and what are those worth? Hell there’s only 80 575 with a stick and one just sold for $190k on bat sub 30k miles still overall 500 or so 575 coupes came to the us and they’re still not valuable.... Just saying 812 is the best car I’ve ever owned, but investment it is not. Also good luck fixing all those onboard computers out of warranty in 20 years.....it’s gonna be hard for a lot of modern cars to hold value when many parts will be obsolete in regards to computers down the road
     
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  15. JTSE30

    JTSE30 F1 Rookie

    Oct 1, 2004
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    Curious as to how that happened?

    Did you wreck your car? maybe you had $150K in options? Otherwise, I would suspect a dealer would of purchased your car for less of a loss than 100K...or maybe you had to buy something else to get an 812 allocation to you are including that loss as a factor?

    The 812 is an investment, one that will pay dividends of driving enjoyment for years to come! Once the market realizes that's it, the pre-GPF 812s are the best front engine V12 that Ferrari will ever build outside of possible Icona...It really won't get any better than that. There's literally nothing to follow it...

    Miami has the 'classics garage' for storage if the condo is outta room...an option at least
     
  16. JTSE30

    JTSE30 F1 Rookie

    Oct 1, 2004
    3,245
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    360, 430, 458, 488, F8 ...If the 812 was 5 back in the evolution I'm with you, but instead, it's something that literally has never occurred before, and that bears notice and mention...

    just think, if the 360 CS was the last V8 Ferrari ever built, chances are it would be worth more...if it was a truly outstanding car as it is, right?

    As for the computers, no worries, they are better than before and there are plenty of cars still on the road that use computers much older than 20 years...

    Not to mention creeping regulation and the GPF, so many folks (across all brands, nothing unique to Ferrari) are bailing on new cars because of it and going pre-owned...and the current 812, besides being last of the V12s, is also last of the pre-GPF V12s as those are starting very soon...
     
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  17. F355 Fan 82

    F355 Fan 82 F1 Veteran

    Jul 22, 2006
    9,063
    #142 F355 Fan 82, Jul 4, 2019
    Last edited: Jul 4, 2019
    Well I paid over sticker bc I’m impatient and wanted an early one, which was $428k sticker, then registering a near $500k car is another $30k+ in Miami and then I sold it for under $400k, it was a great car, if my wife never got pregnant we would still have it. It’s hands down the best car I’ve driven but at $400-500k purchase prices it’s not an investment at all. Also where are you getting 800 produced all time for the us bc I knew 2 others who had one in Miami so I’m skeptical of that number.
     
  18. JTSE30

    JTSE30 F1 Rookie

    Oct 1, 2004
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    I see, so you paid $500K for a 428k sticker car (I thought you had ordered it), and another 30K sales tax (6% of 500K) hopefully some of that sales tax came back to you as trade credit on the replacement (if done through same dealer of course), I better understand that now, thank you.

    800 is not now, 800 is in 2 years or so when 812 production is expected to wrap up, currently somewhere around 400-500 in USA, and dealers are not receiving very many allocations, I presume that is to leave room for 812 spider production which I presume will ramp up in a hurry later this year and displace most 812 coupe production, so, basically another 350-400 812 (coupes) over the next 2 years will be added (and then a lot of 812 spiders).
     
  19. gzachary

    gzachary Formula Junior
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    I actually did not remotely know how many 812s came to the US in 2018 and came in 2019 already. All I know was that they were trickling in.

    I ordered in Jan 2018 and received in March 2019 and that included sending the car out for a custom color at Zanasi. I remember my dealership (I am long term friends with them), telling me that there were big production slowdowns leading to slower allocations in the first half of 2019. Wow, I had no idea there were only 400-500 in the US now. That's Pista magnitude.
     
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  20. Eilig

    Eilig F1 Rookie
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    #145 Eilig, Jul 5, 2019
    Last edited: Jul 5, 2019
    Some facts and figures to ponder....

    Average 812 MSRP ~ low 400's (as you rightly pointed out)
    Average Tdf MSRP ~ low 600's

    812 = "production" car (as you rightly pointed out)
    Tdf = Limited Edition car

    Assuming 400-500 812's in US right now, and deliveries in US continue at current snails pace, we'll end up with not many more than about 500 pre-GPF 812's in US, since 2020 cars w/GPF go into production basically only a month from now (Aug factory shut down). If 812 Spider does launch for 2020 (as being reported), and production skews toward Spider and away from Coupe, maybe not many more 812 Coupes delivering to US (but those that do will have GPF).

    Comparatively, there were (reportedly) 799 Tdf's produced. Assuming the US received the typical 30%-35% allocation, there are (at most) about 280 Tdf's in the US.

    When Tdf's first started hitting secondary market, euphoria propelled pricing of ~600k MSRP "Limited Edition" car up to ~1.3M, before more recently settling down to ~1.0M. What propelled said "euphoria?" "Limited Edition" no doubt was part of it. Also the incredible performance prowess of the car, small supply/large demand, lots of people really wanting one, and (fill in the blanks).

    Granted, 812 is absolutely a "production" car. But non-GPF 812's are actually going to end up being pretty small in quantity. No we can't define them as "officially" being "Limited Edition," but in essence they'll by default end up "unofficially" being "limited quantity."

    Again, the numbers are: ~500 non-GPF 812's ** versus ** ~280 Tdfs. So we're only talking about a delta here of about 220 cars.

    Once reality sets in that the 812 is indeed the LAST NA V12 car ever built by Ferrari (assuming that ends up being the case, all signs currently indicate such), it doesn't seem unreasonable to assume that similar "euphoric" market forces that propelled Tdf prices COULD in fact begin nudging up 812 prices... i.e. just like Tdf: incredible performance prowess of the car, small supply/large demand, lots of people really wanting one, PLUS the fact that it is the LAST (i.e. they ain't making anymore).....

    Here's the key differentiator: With Tdf, Ferrari officially TOLD us from the onset that it was a "Limited Edition," so the secondary market recognized this right away, and priced accordingly. With the 812, we are NOT being officially told it is "Limited" anything. But in essence, it will end up being "limited quantity," and eventually, over time, natural market forces stand a reasonable chance of recognizing such.

    Bottom line, there are unprecedented quantum shifts underway... one day the opportunity to buy this $400k "production car" for anywhere near MSRP may end up being a real bargain. I guess we'll all find out.
     
  21. ChipG

    ChipG Formula 3

    May 26, 2011
    1,722
    Santa Monica, CA
    Yea, I kicked the tires on a few F12's over the last 6 months, for $100k more I can buy an 812 with 750 miles, ($339k), I'm told production volume worldwide for the F12 was 4,500ish cars. Does anyone know if Ferrari has released the 812 production numbers? and if so what will the total number of 812's be worldwide? why are people saying only 800 cars were made for the USA? Are they not selling?
     
  22. R J

    R J Formula Junior

    May 17, 2017
    585
    UK
    UK numbers (as at end 2018) as follows in case of interest:

    F12 tdf = 56 cars licensed for use on the road plus 26 cars subject to a SORN (sworn off road notice / garage queens). 82 in total
    812 = 101 cars licensed for use on the road plus 5 cars subject to a SORN. 106 in total, but — of course — more still being delivered. Numbers for Q1 2019 deliveries should be available soon.
     
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  23. F355 Fan 82

    F355 Fan 82 F1 Veteran

    Jul 22, 2006
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    #148 F355 Fan 82, Jul 5, 2019
    Last edited: Jul 5, 2019
    All you said is correct but you’re missing the main thing, today we have a zillion cool cars from a ton of different brands, back when cars like the 275 gtb were out, how many cool race cars existed? Cars were in general meh. Today every brand has tons of cool cars. Take my dad born in 1949, how many really cool cars from his childhood exist? Take my twins born in 3 months they’re going to have a ton of insane machines from their childhood to try to collect down the road and that’s what I mean, the rarity of these modern HyperCars is well not rare so down the road their collector values will be meh. The 250 gto is legendary bc 38 were made at a time when no great cars really existed. My kids will look back and say I want the best car from when I was born and have Ferrari,Lamborghini,mercedes(Amg one), koenigsegg,pagani,Bugatti,all the small specialty cars(fenyr),etc on and on and you’d like to think there will be demand but who knows they’re building more and more special cars than ever so.........all these new cars are awesome, no other word, but rare they are not as a whole. Take my 575 it’s a 2002, 208 came to the us in 2002, besides the 575 and murcielago what other cars existed in 2002 model year that had that type of exotic price and performance??? So again when I was a teen, not too long ago, there weren’t too many options to choose from to dream about.....
     
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  24. JTSE30

    JTSE30 F1 Rookie

    Oct 1, 2004
    3,245
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    it's more like production isn't happening for USA for various reasons...short summary as there are other posts with more details:

    a. early on production delays due to rear-steering mechanism vendor issues
    b. decision made by factory to accelerate production for China and EU (due to regulations)
    c. US production was to get "caught up" later (2020/2021)
    d. Monza intro took up ~500 of V12 production which is < 2000 per year, closer to 1800 (Monza production needs to wrap soon because I expect those will not have GPF which is absolutely required for any production 1/1/2020 so Ferrari is starting with MY2020)
    e. Now Spider intro soon, 1500 invites that roughly indicates factory expects everyone to order, if so, that further reduces V12 production availability for coupes

    as for '812' pre-owned market, at the moment, nearly everyone that wants one is ordering one to their exact specification, so the pre-owned market for the most part languishes, why spend 400K+ on a car that isn't your exact taste when you can order? I do not expect that to last as 812 coupe production continues to be slow (for USA) and eventually those 'stacks of orders' (some 30 deep at larger dealers, I have communicated with several) will not materialize and then those still wanting an 812 will be left with only the pre-owned; For USA about 2000 F12s were produced so that will probably be at least twice if not three times more production for USA than the 812 coupe...that will naturally put more pressure on 812 pricing, especially once market realizes everything I expect (i.e. no V12 to replace, future car is V8 hybrid, only GPF + tons of nannies, the experience will markedly change, for me in an unsatisfactory way, perhaps that will be true for others)

    As for not wanting for choice, very true, but the world of V12 engine experiences in that list at sub-$1M is short, it's basically Aventador and 812, two very different cars in so many ways that the only common traits are V12 and Italian....and Aventador replacement has been announced (hybrid, exact nature unknown--super capacitors or batteries), there is no official 812 replacement plan, the only announcement is Leiters is fighting (inside Ferrari I suspect) for the V12 to remain n.a....) so, if you want the very best n.a. V12 ever made, it's the 812 (outside of Monza/Iconas)
     
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  25. dustman

    dustman F1 Veteran
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    Jun 12, 2007
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    I doubt ferrari goes thru the cost of designing and producing a new car ie 812 to sell significantly less quantity than its predecessor the f12. Unless the mix is different ie Monza if that is applicable.

    The Last Of NA 12cyl may not pan out as the successor if it’s 12 and elec like a 918 or Laffer would have incredible performance and the hallmark sound. Weight penalty tbd.

    Going against the 812 is the controversial styling. For this alone I’m not seeing the upside.
     

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