What will happen to the Value of gas cars when all cars are electric??

In 50 years, I'm likely not to care...

I do think in my lifetime that "driving rights" will be an issue.

sjd

 

Might as well be asking what will happen to the value of ground vehicles when all cars are flying. Its way to far in the future for there to be any meaningful predictions at this point.

Today it looks like electric cars will be the future, they have solved the performance, range, packaging and thermal problems. The only real questions at this point are supply and cost related. That doesn't mean however that things won't change in the future though. It was only 10 years ago that electric cars were a joke. 10 years from now, who knows?

Cars like Ferrari's will always have significant value, however that could very likely be only half or even 1/4 of what they are today.

I think the far better question is what will happen in the next economic downturn. That's going to be coming far sooner and will have likely have far more of an effect. Will we see a huge crash or just a slight softening?

 

I think it will be a long time until combustion vehicles are eradicated. And even in that time period I think cars will still be mixed. I was trying to relate the example of horse and buggy, however it would be a bad example because the infrastructure was completely different back then.

I’m certain special edition cars will rise as supply shortens and demand for more “pure” driving experience increases. You are one perfect example of trading your performante for a Speciale. As more and more drivers get used to digital cars, there will be more people wanting the pure cars.

It’s a fact that combustion is on its way out. There have been several countries who are working towards bans and blockages of combustion vehicles. 52% of car sales in 2017 were electric. So change is inevitable.

I think the purists who really love the cars for what they are and not just status will drive the market of special editions. Another point is as combustion vehicles become more obscure, people will hold on to theirs more tightly, which would drive up demand and reduce supply. We see that with cars like ford GT and CGT. You see so few on the market and prices have shot up.

Fact is there will never be anything that compares to a combustion vehicle. I’ve driven electric cars often and I effing hate them. All I hear is an electrical whirr and boring acceleration and no noise. Nothing compares to the hard shifts, vibration, and power you feel when a Powerfuk engine is mere inches behind you. Nothing will ever do that for you and that is what will truly keep values high.

 

I can see scenarios where gas is available in 50 years, but priced like a boutique item say $20 per gallon.....at that point you would see the wheat separated from the chaff with only ultra rare in demand collectible cars being kept, everything else being worthless.

 

If I can have a fun filled day for $300 worth of gas and I don't have to roll along at 13 mph behind some dude on a Harley, I will be happy!


BT

 

Sorry, but that was in one market (Norway) where there are very very significant subsidies
https://www.autoblog.com/2018/01/03/ev-hybrid-car-sales-norway/

and that one market is smaller than many cities in the USA

Norway new car sales less than 159,000 for 2017:
http://carsalesbase.com/total-market-sales-country/norway-car-sales-data/

that's equivalent to about 4 DAYS of new car sales in the USA in that same year!

52% of a really small number is of no significance...in a market of that size...

Worldwide in 2018, EV/Hybrid was about 2.1million units
http://www.ev-volumes.com/country/total-world-plug-in-vehicle-volumes/

Worldwide total 2018, about 86million:
https://www.best-selling-cars.com/global/2018-full-year-international-worldwide-car-sales-and-global-market-analysis/

So, EV/PHEV was about 2.44% for 2018, no where near 52%

and, in my opinion, there are not sufficient battery / electric motor raw materials nor production capacity to come anywhere near 52% of 86 million (annual car sales worldwide), probably ever, definitely not in the next 10 years and probably not in 50 years either
https://www.greencarreports.com/news/1123981_vw-holds-battery-suppliers-tight-amid-anticipated-shortages

my opinion, liquid fuel vehicles will remain predominant forever

it is only through government fiat(regulations/mandates) and subsidies that EV/PHEV even are doing as well as they are...you point out Norway, if not for the huge subsidies provided by the oil-rich kingdom, EV sales there would likely be less than 5% of total

 

How it is happening now:
- Increase in reg fees for ICE cars.
- Added tax for ICE cars. In Puerto Rico a new ICE car costs 34% MORE because of a tax vs EVs cost nothing more.
- City centers will charge a fee for a ICE car or simply not allow them.
- As ICE cars age there will be fewer folks who can fix them let alone source for parts.
- Autonomous EVs will be given special everything...insurance rates, parking, lanes on the freeways AND B roads.
- People will buy into the safety aspect of a self-driving EV and there will be massive social pressure to reinforce.
- Mass social acceptance. EVs are no longer rich peoples way of virtue signaling. Trucks, entry-level cars...will all be EVs.
- Convenience. No more gas stations, no more regular dealer service (no oil etc)
- 'Potential' way to make money. Your EV when not being used by you could be part of a ride-sharing program. It would connect to
'uber' and then roll around autonomously acting as a cab. Musks idea BTW.
- Environment.
etc

Bottom line, the ownership burden for a non EV will be too much and people will just get EVs. That
is how this will play out.

 

this is such a good post, thank you for the information

 

Let’s be clear...

1) not all cars will be EV....ever!
2) autonomous cars wont happen in our lifetime. (It is far far too complicated than the average Joe could ever realise. And there are now studies emerging showing that partially autonomous cars are in fact more dangerous than having full human control. )

Whilst this is my educated view, it kind of echos that of Citroen boss and Aston Martin boss.

https://www.autocar.co.uk/car-news/technology/aston-martin-boss-brexit-strategy-laughable-ev-policy-non-sensical-idea-full

https://www.autocar.co.uk/car-news/industry/carlos-tavares-electric-cars-could-be-more-problematic-people-think

ICE will continue and be part of the transport solution. I suspect electric cars will end up being limited by range to cities; like our old milk floats.

LNG will come to the for once infrastructure is sorted and the stupid politicians realise EV isn’t the silver bullet.

I would happy to bet that within 30 years we have the same conversation about electric cars as we currently are about diesel. Strip mining in Africa for cobalt and lithium mining in China=not good for the environment. Ohhhh and those minor little details of a) where does the electricity come from and b) no country in the world has electrical infrastructure that can anywhere near deal with the demands that will be placed on them if we get anywhere near the target of electrical cars. So are we rebuilding all that infrastructure??? Governments have that all planned out do they??

And besides it’s all fing hypocrisy anyway. Let’s build electric vehicles; ohh and let’s build stupid fat oversized trucks and SUVs which are far less efficient that a standard saloon or estate which have as much if not more space anyway! So pat yourself on the back as they are EV; now kick yourself because it’s an inefficient oversized school
Run truck!!!!

 

We have already hit $8-9 dollars a gallon in the past few years. Still people buy inefficient SUVs and trucks!!!

Double that might happen but it won’t kill the ice off by any stretch of the imagination.

 

Maybe in some totalitarian countries, yes.

~~~~~
But, in USA, quite the opposite:
Hybrid owners would pay new annual fee under NC bill, and electric car owners would pay more
https://www.newsobserver.com/news/politics-government/article229072449.html

~~~~~
The point about Puerto Rico is not entirely accurate:
https://prbusinesslink.com/importing-tax-exempt-electric-vehicles-act-81/
here's a big one:
This EV tax exemption remains in effect until 10% of cars imported or produced in Puerto Rico are electric.
The excise tax for importing a car to PR is not fixed, it is variable but I cannot find where it exceeds 25%:
https://siscon.hacienda.gobierno.pr/Siscon/Portal/ARBAW951Form.aspx

This is an older story:
http://www.puertorico-herald.org/issues2/2005/vol09n32/CBStickerShock.html
but probably still fairly accurat.

~~~~~
So call Zero Emissions zones do not exist, they might sometime:
https://www.oxford.gov.uk/zez (2035)

https://cleantechnica.com/2019/04/09/london-unveils-worlds-first-24-hour-ultra-low-emission-zone/
(nothing yet, Euro 4 standard from 2006 or so is the basis for low emission)

~~~~~

Fewer parts sources for ICE cars and people who can work on them? Maybe, but you can still find folks to fix a Duesenberg!
https://www.popularmechanics.com/cars/a7509/the-die-hard-mechanics-who-save-deloreans-and-duesenbergs-7588638/

So that one is likely very far into the future if ever.

~~~~~

Autonomous EVs, special rates on everything, I can maybe agree to that, but I don't think they will ever exist, not Level 5 that never has an accident, never crashes, etc. -- I have designed computer software for over 40 years, full Level 5 is likely never or so far into the future as to be 100s of years from now, instead, if anything, controlled roadways, a smaller number between certain geographic points is a "maybe" but would be hugely expensive to construct the infrastructure.

Please realize, GPS is spoofable, GPS is unreliable, GPS must be continuously updated, the earth's geomagnetic north pole is moving a lot and quickly, and that's the easy stuff.

https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2018/12/7-arguments-against-the-autonomous-vehicle-utopia/578638/

~~~~

EV's are only "convenient" if you have a consistent place to plug them in...and they do need service, electric motors fail, tires & brakes wear out, etc.

to whit:
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EV - ride share your personal vehicle, might have some serious unwelcome consequences, your insurance will be much higher, what happens when it is abandoned somewhere because it is out of charge?
https://gridwise.io/rideshare/how-to-make-sure-you-get-paid-for-puke-mud-spills-and-other-messes/

~~~~

Environment - ? Such as what exactly?
https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2019/03/the-dirty-secret-of-electric-vehicles/

https://www.wired.com/2016/03/teslas-electric-cars-might-not-green-think/

etc...

~~~~

Ownership burden?

The number of Teslas I see on the highway away from city centers is generally less than 5 (over a 300 mile journey to various locations in Texas), there's a reason for that, if you run out of battery, you cannot get a gallon of gas and be on your way...Try a day trip, from Austin to Dallas and back, see how that works out...the ownership burden is you have to do much more to manage your car when it is an EV, I was behind a Tesla in the middle of nowhere and the driver was obviously worried, never exceeded 60mph despite being in a 75mph zone...etc..

 

Please recall that the prices you pay in the UK are among the highest in the world, all because of government taxes...not because of anything else...

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/road-and-rail-transport/10668970/British-fuel-tax-highest-in-Europe.html

excerpts:
For every litre of unleaded petrol bought in the UK, 61 per cent of the pump price goes to the government as fuel duty and VAT along with 59 per cent of every litre of diesel.

Before tax is added Britain offers some of the cheapest petrol and diesel prices in Europe, but the levies mean that overall prices at the pump in the UK are the second highest for diesel and the ninth highest for unleaded.

 

JTSE30, I don’t know your name, but these are great posts. Thank you.

 

@JTSE30 thank you for the very informative posts.

May I add something also- I noticed not one post using the word "profit". The car companies are in business to make money. As I understand it, the biggest problem from the perspective of car companies is the fact that the batteries are just too expensive and thus, EVs are really not a profit driver. Until that changes, you won't really see EVs. I also think the future will be more complex than we think. It may be there are areas where EVs are most of what you see, and areas where ICE is most of what you see- and then there could be all kinds of hybrids. There could be applications where you have small ICE working together with electric components for propulsion. We have a fantastic infrastructure for fueling and currently petroleum is the most energy dense fuel we have. Its kind of hard to get away from that.

BUT - if we can hypothetically accept the premise- that in the future, there will be mostly EV and autonomous type vehicles- I think there will be those who still relish special cars like Ferrari. I agree, as cars become more and more like appliances, those with character will stick out even more to those of us who care.

 

I think most manufacturers believe EV's are a stop gap and not a very clean one at that. (think electricity and battery production) Hydrogen is the future and is clean. It also uses an ICE. So maybe in the future we can convert our Ferraris to hydrogen power and still make the wonderful noises we love.

 

I bought a new 1500 ram. Next car will be electric. I want both worlds for now..electrical grid is to fragile to rely on at the moment. That said, electric is the future, but I will always has a gaser in my driveway..

 

We may as well all be Communists and drive little black cars then if your prediction/argument comes true...

In a capitalistic world, demand is always the driving force...you can add government to sway it a little. Case in point, there are still a lot of smokers out there despite the tobacco tax, tobacco free zones, etc, etc.

Who here has stats on 2ndary market EV's, especially the TESLAs? I would be curious to see if there is demand for those, or are those piling up in junk piles with the Pontiac Azteks and VW new Beetles.

And how about stats on owners who have owned EV's, are they returning to ICE cars or buying another EV? I have heard first hand many people who have owned the TESLA S, and going back to ICE.

 

...and don't I know it when I fill up the BMW or Ferrari. At the moment its not too bad circa £80 ($100), but it has been higher than that in the past.

The point is I don't believe armageddon for ICE will come at $20 a gallon.

As an aside there was an interesting survey of location/ availability etc of electric charging points. I didn't realise a number of them, you have to be a member of club to use, you cant just rock up and pay with a card...like you do for gas. Also about 1/3 of those out there are currently broke! Whilst progress is being made, there is a long way to go to get to something approaching a sustainable ownership proposition.

(A lot of the Teslas over here will be company cars as they have attractive tax breaks...like diesels did when the government pushed those on us. And who the hell would buy a 2nd hand one, with a battery life of what 9-10 years and a replacement cost of ? isn't it £10k plus?)

 

Depends on the model/etc, could be £5K - £10K

https://batterymanguide.com/tesla-battery-replacement-cost/
(not clear in link above if cost is simply parts cost or if includes full labor costs)

here's some insights on used:

https://insideevs.com/news/339193/3-ways-to-ruin-your-tesla-battery-plus-what-it-costs-to-replace-it/

seems simply topping the battery off and letting it drain to near 0% are both going to shorten the battery life, in some cases (as in article above) will not even approach 8 years of usefulness...especially for a corporate vehicle that would probably experience even higher utilization than a private only vehicle...

 

Battery powered EVs are a stepping stone. They are not the solution. WAY too many short comings to overcome.

Lithium batteries are:
Dirty
Rare
Expensive
Contain conflict minerals
@96% efficency... meaning... not much more improvement is available.

We are trading one problem for another. It doesn't solve the problem it just gives us a different set of problems.

 

The way I see it, electric cars aren't the future. It's a very old concept, it's not in its infancy. There's also the very important question of pollution to manufacture batteries and to dispose of them. Electric cars are just the flavor of the week, the currently dominant lobby, as the Diesel… 15 years ago in Europe, they said the Diesel would bring fuel consumption so much lower compared to gasoline cars, that it would save the world… I quite distinctively remember the fever, the hype... We all know how that worked.

I believe the future will be the fuel cell/hydrogen. In any case, one first has to define what a car is and, for me personally, a car has to be powered by fossile fuel to be considered a car. The more current cars stray away from what a true car is, the bigger the nostalgia and the value of a "proper" car.

It's an emocional question, no doubt. In the old days, manufacturers worried about improving safety, performance and/or quality. Today, we're discussing how can we dispose of the (wonderful to me!) task of driving, and which cars will achieve those goals. I honestly can't see how proper cars won't soar in value. To people who like cars, that is.

Kind regards,

Nuno.

 

Now if you predict the sky is falling, I'll believe you. However, if you want to make a prediction about the future of oil and EV's, pardon but I'll pass.

1909: 25 or 30 years longer

"Petroleum has been used for less than 50 years, and it is estimated that the supply will last about 25 or 30 years longer. If production is curtailed and waste stopped it may last till the end of the century. The most important effects of its disappearance will be in the lack of illuminants. Animal and vegetable oils will not begin to supply its place. This being the case, the reckless exploitation of oil fields and the consumption of oil for fuel should be checked."

— July 19, 1909 Titusville Herald (Titusville, PA)


1919: Two to five years until maximum production
"In meeting the world's needs, however, the oil from the United States will continue to occupy a less and less dominant position, because within the next two to five years the oil fields of this country will reach their maximum production and from that on we will face an ever increasing decline."

— October 23, 1919 Oil and Gas News


1937: Gone in 15 years
Capt. H. A. Stuart, director of the naval petroleum reserves, told the Senate Naval Affairs Committee today the oil supply of this country will last only about 15 years.

"We have been making estimates for the last 15 years,' Stuart said. 'We always underestimate because of the possibility of discovering new oil fields. The best information is that the present supply will last only 15 years. That is a conservative estimate.'"

— March 9, 1937 Brooklyn Daily Eagle


1943: Peak oil has been reached
"There is a growing opinion that the United States has reached its peak oil production, the Oil and Gas Journal pointed out in its current issue. Since 1938, discoveries of new oil have not equaled withdrawals, in any single year, although there is a very good chance that 1943 will see enough new Ellenburger oil in West Texas to provide an excess."

— June 7, 1943 Bradford Evening Star (Bradford, PA)


1945: Just thirteen years left
"Faced with the threat that our nation's petroleum reserves may last only thirteen years, geologists are striving to tap the almost limitless supply of oil located beneath the seas off our coastline. The first attempt to get oil from the depths of the Atlantic Ocean was begun this month near Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, and Secretary of the Interior Harold L. Ickes revealed that the scientists are making progress in their efforts to reach the underwater oil."

— December 10, 1945 Times Recorder (Zanesville, Ohio)


1956: Ten to fifteen years until peak oil
"M. King Hubbert of the Shell Development Co. predicted [one year ago] that peak oil production would be reached in the next 10 to 15 years and after that would gradually decline."

— March 9, 1957 Corpus Christi Times (Corpus Christi, TX)


1966: Gone in ten years
"A geologist stuck a figurative dipstick into the United States' oil supplies Tuesday and estimated that the country may be dry in 10 years."

— August 3, 1966 Brandon Sun (Brandon, Manitoba)


1972: U.S. oil depleted in twenty years
"At any rate, U.S. oil supplies will last only 20 years. Foreign supplies will last 40 or 50 years, but are increasingly dependent upon world politics."

— May 1972 Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists


1977: Oil will peak by the early 90s
"As a nation, Americans have been reluctant to accept the prospect of physical shortages. We must recognize that world oil production will likely peak in the early 1990's, and from that point on will be on a declining curve. By the early part of the 21st century, we must face the prospect of running out of oil and natural gas."

— 1977 US Department of Energy Organization Act


1980: In the year 2000
"Stressing the need for conservation, [physicist Dr. Hans] Bethe said the world will reach its peak oil production before the year 2000. Production of oil worldwide will then drop to zero over about 20 years, he said. Rigorous conservation could stretch the world's oil supply to the year 2050, he said.

— October 17, 1980 Syracuse Post Standard (Syracuse, NY)


1996: Peak oil likely by 2020
"Unfortunately, oil production will likely peak by 2020 and start declining. Without a change, developing countries will ultimately be left in the dark, and developed countries will struggle to keep the lights on. Conflict is inevitable. My guess is that this won't become a big issue unless there is a thalidomide event. We will have to see in the rear-view mirror that we are past the peak in worldwide oil production."

— Richard Smalley, Nobel Laureate in Chemistry, 1996


2002: Global peak by the year 2010
"Global supplies of crude oil will peak as early as 2010 and then start to decline, ushering in an era of soaring energy prices and economic upheaval — or so said an international group of petroleum specialists meeting Friday."

— May 25, 2002 Index Journal (Greenwood, SC)


2007: Sometime between now and 2040
Most studies estimate that oil production will peak sometime between now and 2040. This range of estimates is wide because the timing of the peak depends on multiple, uncertain factors that will help determine how quickly the oil remaining in the ground is used, including the amount of oil still in the ground; how much of that oil can ultimately be produced given technological, cost, and environmental challenges as well as potentially unfavorable political and investment conditions in some countries where oil is located; and future global demand for oil.

— February 2007 GAO Report

 

It is amazing how they keep finding the stuff, isn't it? Where's there's profit, there's production.

 

All very good points gentlemen. I don't know what the future holds, but assuming the future is electric/autonomous as the OP hypothetically asks, we'll see both co-exist for some time. I can easily prove this by pointing out to the steam powered cars I see at Pebble Beach to this day.

Only government regulation forcing the banning of ICE would doom ICE cars (which luckily I don't see happening in the USA)

Inventive people will find a way to hold on and enjoy these vehicles.