What will happen to the Value of gas cars when all cars are electric??

Don’t care. I’ll be dead.

 

Hydrogen is not easy to produce. It takes a lot of energy!

 

Many states are now eliminating the discounts on EVs and hybrids. Why? Too much money lost in gas tax. CT is phasing out "net metering" for those with solar systems. The systems at large are no longer sustainable if everyone jumps on board.

 

A few points to consider...

ICE cars use gas which is heavily taxed by most governments. The taxes pay for the roads we drive on. If EV cars tax over the governments will need to find another way to fund the maintenance of the roads.

EV cars have fewer moving parts and therefore require less maintenance / repair. Maintainance / repair provides a huge amount of revenue for car manufacturers and dealers. How will the mega dealers deal with this given the huge investment they have already made and the amount of revenue that will be lost my not selling parts and having mechanical issues to repair.

I had a Tesla Model S that was wicked fast but too quiet and boring without an ICE. I sold it and got an Afla Romeo Guilia QV that is loud and fast, I have no desire to go back to electric.

It can also be dangerous as other cars do not hear you coming like they do with ICE cars. People are often distracted and not paying attention when driving but a loud exhaust gets their attention. In LA most motorcycles and some cars use their loud exhaust so you know they are about to pass you, this is not possible with EV.

Just my 2 cents.

 

Don’t put it past them; remember they are idiots that will sway to the latest trend/ lobby irrespective of proven science/ engineering.

Point in case here https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-49003496

Ignoring the energy required to make the damn stuff and the deforestation to grow it.

If the world is in the hands of the politicians and civil servants we truly have no hope.

So go fill your tank up now and put some miles on your Ferrari !!

 

Subsidies again keep the purchase price low for EVs and hybrids too. Manufacturers lose money on many of these cars because they simply need to sell X amount due to CAFE standards here. The Volt while a great car, never made a dime. Tesla!?

So again early adopters get killed/ rewarded depending on what side of the equation your on.

Eventually these EV cars would have to be much more expensive than they are now. For those looking at cars like an appliance they will be much less attractive from a cost analysis.

 

Out of my 7 friends who have had Teslas- 5 have gone back to some form of ICE. 2 are sticking with Tesla. The ones who stick with it love the power and the feeling of agility- those are their words. The ones who left tell me they didn't like the uncomfortable seats, the poor materials, didn't really care about the power, didn't like worrying about range.

I also have a point for you all to consider- but its really to so much an EV point- its an autonomous car point.

If most cars become autonomous, then, in theory, they will obey all the traffic rules. If most cars obey traffic rules, the revenue from cars that do not adhere to the rules will be lost. I think this would have a tremendous effect on many municipal and state budgets. Where will they make up the revenue? Income and property tax hikes are extremely unpopular. I expect you will see sales taxes going up.

 

right now. Same was said about batteries. Same was said about flight.

 

I hear you brother. Especially in places like Europe and China. Wouldn't be surprised if America follows....(hope not though!!!!)

 

excellent point. I totally agree the autonomous element is the more paradigm shifting notion. I can see insurance companies charge what, 5X, 10X, if your car is not autonomous? Self driving is an insurance companies dream. Everything is recorded. EVERYTHING. Minimizes fraud and court disputes.

 

Fifty years is way too far to make any predictions. By that time petrol may be a prohibited substance making cars artwork or paper weights. With no gas I have to think the values of most all cars excepting the unicorns will be minimal at best.

There are other liquid alternative fuels such as hydrogen which may at some point become viable to replace petroleum.

Technological advancements so far out just are so difficult to predict as they may not yet even be dreamed of yet, 30 years ago no one had even dreamed of the internet or cellphones.

 

What hasn't been discussed yet is the shifting mindset of the newer generations. Mobility in general has seen a huge shift in paradigm which in turn influences ev/petroleum car sales and ownership and soon autonomous vehicles.

Can anyone say there is hasn't been a decline in interest in petroleum-based cars with the younger generations? Have you spoken to any of your sales pals at your local Ferrari dealerships and asked who are buying up the cars? I'll put a **** ton of money that they'll tell you it's all the same old money, same old faces, 95% of the time. Also, probably the same old group keeping market prices afloat but once they're gone who knows...collapse isn't entirely far-fetched imho.

The trend is clearly headed away from petroleum-based cars, and as battery tech evolves, ev cars get faster, more efficient, more mainstream, as infrastructure for electric mobility continues to broaden, the shift in the next 10-20 yrs will be like from a horse-drawn carriage to the first car...

Logic would dictate that petroleum cars would eventually be likened to museum exhibits or that novel, romantic horse ride around the park. All the more to enjoy while you can boys! Esp now, when the gettin is so good for car enthusiasts, why worry about the far-gone future? Just do what you love until you can't.

 

We don’t yet know the long term cost of EVs or how a billion batteries are going to be recycled. Nor do we know the tax and loss of jobs impact.

You can buy a decent ICE car for $15k, what is the cost of an EV? Twice that? That eliminates a huge number of buyers.

It won’t be a yellow brick road to EV adoption

 

Electric rates vary wildly making the cost savings sometimes moot. Try charging at some for profit locations....not cheap. What if you don't have a convenient plug? Live in a city?

 

If the EV's really take off then they will need to be heavily taxed to maintain roads. (think petrol tax) Now is the time to enjoy the fuel savings while EV's are the new thing. If they become mainstream then the taxes will make the running costs the same or more than gas cars. To be clean and green (which EV's are not) will cost more not less.

 

BMW had a hydrogen fuel cell V12 7-series running just fine back in the '80's. Not viable back then and development stopped. But most manufacturers are going back down this path. Tech has moved on and in a big way.

 

Hydrogen is only "liquid" under -423F or under high pressure (12+ atmospheres), that's not likely to ever change...

https://www.energy.gov/eere/fuelcells/liquid-hydrogen-delivery

https://www.energy.gov/eere/fuelcells/hydrogen-storage-basics-0

and that takes a lot of energy to maintain...

And can be quite explosive
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/B978012812036100007X

Servicing a Hydrogen powered car is not exactly an easy or very safe task:
https://www.greencarreports.com/news/1111440_how-do-you-service-a-hydrogen-fuel-cell-car-at-a-dealer

and,
you have to go back much further than 30 years as the DARPA network has been around about 45 years and once the US govt allowed access for commercial interests the 'internet' came forth ...
https://www.internetsociety.org/internet/history-internet/brief-history-internet-related-networks

Modern cell phones, go back about 35 years, but were certainly thought of much earlier:
https://www.uswitch.com/mobiles/guides/history-of-mobile-phones/

 

Guess I'm in the minority, but I really really am hoping someone comes up with a way to make cellulosic ethanol for cheap. Enzymes to breakdown discarded materials like scrap wood/plants/switchgrass/etc (not fruits) are still pretty expensive. It would be nice to be able to turn all that waste into ethanol. Pretty much any car made after 1995 or so can run ethanol no problem and fuel tanks are isolated from the atmosphere so no real concerns about its hygroscopic properties. More power, too, but worse MPG due to less energy density.

 

Image the sales of 86 million vehicles next year all sold with huge batteries. Battery production including the harvesting of the metals required) is a very dirty business as far as the environment is concerned The ecological carnage would be huge and unlike CO2 which plants can recycle, heavy metals are not so easy to dispose of. I’m sure technology will improve this including recycling etc but it will be a long time coming
As for ICE car values- in a world of EVs - like when digital took over the music business- analog devices got fewer and fewer and priced in the stratosphere


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Great information. Obviously hydrogen vehicles are a complex fuel application. I know Honda has had their vehicles out for a few years but they don't seem to have taken off perhaps the technology is not far enough to really make them practicable yet. As you point out hydrogen is a dangerous source of fuel but perhaps with more advanced technology the dangers may be mitigated enough to be practicable?

I know they have been working on fuel cells several decades and I did a paper on them when I was in high school. At the time I had thought that they might be viable in 20 – 30 years but it seems not really or more companies would followed Honda’s lead.

 

If a way could be invented that allowed Hydrogen to be liberated from O2 in situ then no storage, no danger, I think that would be a great solution, but, in terms of energy exchange you do not get something for nothing, so some energy source has to be used to 'crack' the water molecule (i.e. H2O), perhaps back to the future's mr. fusion to the rescue, maybe a miniature liquid fluoride thorium reactor... ....all science fiction at this point but progress is occurring and I think there may be a solution at some time.

I'm sure some great energy futures are ahead of us, but, until then, can't beat the availability and energy density of petroleum-based products ....

 

We are over 100 years from this happening so many other things can also change in that time. So impossible to know what will happen to the value of ICE cars.

 

“Special editions” please. Very little is special about them, just marketing. I was just looking at F12 TDFs, they made 700x. Barely special. Thats more than Ferrari sold of Testarossa’s in two years. Don’t count your chickens on the special edition models. Not gonna work out well for you

 

Yea, after so many special editions they no longer become ......... well ........ special.

You can only go to the well so many times.

 

Yep, and I can't believe the prices. We have a F12 TDF here asking 5 times the price of an F12 and the dealer assures me it's going up in value daily. It looks a little racier, weighs a bit less and goes a bit faster. Doesn't seem THAT special.